1.5 Total! Plus Soccer thoughts

BASON

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Greece/Northern Ireland total is 1.5.

Still trying to research the 1.5 total and its results, but it is a rarity. Greece has been absolutely pathetic in its qualifying matches. Not much to handicap here for me. If they post a 1.5 line, I will play the under.

Look for situational plays in the last weekend of qualifying. I like to look for teams that have a chance to qualify and have games they can win to do so. The two that initially jump out are Montenegro at home against Austria and Albania at home against Serbia. Austria is in and Montenegro has a week final opponent so if they win both they will move on, so I like them +178 at home. Albania is in a similar position, but this is a strange situation. The first game against Serbia was the now infamous drone game, so while Serbia is out this is a huge game for them. I expect a large military presence at the game. While I love the situation for Albania, may be too much politics, etc. to bet this game.

Also like Costa Rica in a friendly against South Africa. Don't really understand this line at -147. I will look into the lineups later, but Costa Rica is very tough at home.

My two cents on the big USA/Mexico match is simple. Mexico's talent far exceeds that of the US, so at +210 they are a tremendous value especially since there will be 75,000 mexicans at the game. While I would not be surprised to see a draw, I will make a large value bet here with the better team. Klinsmann keeps playing players out of position and picks favorites. He has always been more of a motivator than an actual coach. I think he may resign if he loses, but certainly should be fired if he does.

Good Luck!!
 

BASON

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Did a little more research on the Costa Rica game. South Africa has had a travel nightmare getting to Costa Rica (took over 28 hours), so much so that they are moving the game from Liberia to San Jose. South Africa also has no striker for the game. Their best player plays for Bournemouth and is injured. Their other strikers play for Orlando and will not be available for the game (there are 3 Orlando players total). Finally the game is a 4:00 a.m. South African time tomorrow.

Costa Rica will not have Ruiz but do have Navas back in goal and still have Campbell upfront. This is the A squad for them as they prepare for World Cup qualifying. They beat Uruguay 1-0 is their last friendly at home.

I do not like betting Friendlies that much, but this game looks like a strong play to me. Just too many negative factors for an already poor South African squad.
 

BASON

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Thanks Bobby. I am aware, but the roster difference is still significant. Half the Mexican team just played in the Champions League last week, while most of the US team toils in the second divisions in Europe and MLS (which is worse than the English second division). I am a US fan and hope they win, but I can't put my money on them based on the talent level. I also think this will be like a home game for Mexico. The venue is not good for the US.
 

BASON

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Costa Rica line starting to move, up to -150 and Mexico got hit hard already down to +170 and I think it will go lower.

I am playing Albania +200 (Pk +125 is a safer way to play) today despite all the turmoil (many arrests of armed fans already made). Its the first chance ever for them to advance to a major tournament. They are at home with no opposing fans. Should be a big effort from them.
 
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