1 Play Tonight

[ND2002HORNS]

YTD 34-11 (+32.50 units) 19-6 in last 25

Ott./Col. notes:

Abby for Avs and Lalime for the Sens in nets tonight.
Blake is a gametime decision.
Defense pairings for Avs:
Foote-Skoula,de Vries-Trepanier,Berry-Gill.
With Roy and most likely Blake out of the line-up tonight I look for the Sens to use their speed and wear out the Avs defense. After looking at the pairings for the Avs on defense they are not even average with Blake out. This means more minutes for guys who are going to have to face a number 1 or 2 line rather than a number 3 line. The Avs looked alot better on their recent road trip but still are not scoring at the same clip as last year. Blake leaves a big hole for the Avs on PP and PK. Factor all this in and the Sens should be able to put one or two extra goals past Abby with Roy out tonight. Look for a 3-1 or 4-2 game in favour of the Sens. The total on this game is too hard to call. Grab 4.5 if you can otherwise I would stay away from a total of 5. The last four times these teams have met they have gone under the total and the Avs in their most recent 15 games have 3 overs and 12 unders. On the other hand the Sens have 6 overs and 3 unders on their 9 road games so far this year.

Playing Ott. +.5(110)

GL to all tonight on a small card.

HORNS

 

[Patternseeker]

Thanks, as always, for your analysis.

By the way, learned the other night about the bizarre creature called 'empty net goal' that sunk the Bluejackets at +1.5 against the Blues (in Columbus).

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Patternseeker,

Glad to help and welcome to the Penalty Box!
Yes those empty netters cost many people games either straight up or when betting a total. But on the other side I have won a few totals with those empty netters. Mind you for some reason this year whenever I needed an empty net goal this year I don't seem to get it.

GL tonight!

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Everyone,

The TEAM 1200 sports radio station here in Ottawa is reporting that Rob Blake is definitely out tonight. Abby has been confirmed by Bob Hartley and Lalime is definitely starting. Expect to see Hurme play on Thursday night against Nashville.

HORNS

 

[wigs]

Horns, i saw value in last night's overnight line of ottawa +140, it has gone down today as should be expected, that was simply too high of a line to not take ottawa in this situation(aebischer in, blake ?, coming back home , etc etc) so good luck, for what it's worth, it looks like Ottawa's power play shows up on the road (23.5) but not at home (4.8) but they kill a little better at home(could help over 4.5) and colorado PP is better at home but only 20 % compared to 16%, howeve their PK at home is at 80.8 while on the road it is 91.7. not that these numbers are huge but at least in our favor i believe...first goal could be large as both teams win almost all the time so far this yr when scoring the first goal...c ya looks even stronger with no blake. sens should have the speed to stay with col's top 2 lines and also have a little more size up front than col in my opinion.

[This message has been edited by wigs (edited 12-03-2001).]

 

[ND2002HORNS]

wigs,

Great analysis. Glad you got the +140, I think it is down to 110. As for the Avs, I think the depth the Sens have on the 3rd & 4th lines will help alot. Like you said the first goal is very important. The Sens for some reason this year are struggling at home with the PP but like you said not on the road. I do like the factor of the Avs coming home after 3 in 4 nights. Are you going to the game on Wed.? (Sens at the Stars)

GL tonight!

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

That first goal, a minute and a half into the game is going to go a long way for the Sens. Breakaway for Sakic and stopped by Lalime. Very early but like the intensity Ottawa has come out with.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Damn goal with 2 seconds to go, the Sens are horrible for letting in goals in the first and last minutes of each period. They outshot the Avs big time. Oh well 2 periods to go. The over looks great for all of you out there that took it.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

What a choke job, I know how everyone feels from the Carolina game yesterday. Sens up 2-0 and then fold like a cheap tent. If I take them to win they lose, if I take them to lose they win, if I take them to go over they go under and if I take them under they go over.

0-1 Tonight (YTD 34-12 +31.40 units)

HORNS

 

[wigs]

Horns
I hear ya, i lost this time but i still think in the long run and from what i saw that ottawa at +140 in that spot was the right side...i see calg/sj over 5 at -130 tomorrow, you still like that over??

 

[Sam]

Only difference with the Carolina game, is they had a 2 goal lead with 8 minutes to go in the game.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

wigs,

What burns me about the game tonight is that they had 19 shots in the first period and should have got out 3-1 instead it was 2-2, 10 shots in the second period and they looked uninterested, 5 shots in the third period and they had almost 6 minutes of PP time. Go figure.

I still like the Cal./SJ over at 5. I thought if anyone could get it at 4.5 then you could still win with a 3-2 score. Even now with it at five the worst you can do is a push but I see it 4-3 or 5-3. Calgary is a different on the road and are allowing plenty of goals on the road. SJ and Calgary are good skating teams which means plenty of scoring chances. Watch Jerome Iginla, this guy is one of the best players in the NHL along the boards. It is no wonder he leads the league in the goals. People don't look at that aspect of his game but it is what has helped him be a dominant player to start the year. The Canadian Olympic camp did this guy wonders for his game.

GL Tomorrow!

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Sam,

I agree, the problem with Ottawa tonight was that they stopped skating when they got up 2-0. This blows me away when a team gets up 2-0 early, why don't you try to put them away. They had Abby in nets and minus Blake, Sens missed a golden opportunity to start their road trip the right way. I don't see them beating the Stars on Wed. night. Heck they could go 0-3 on this trip.

HORNS

 

[Sam]

For your over tommorrow!

The flames in the second night of back to back, only 3 times in 17 has it gone under 5, and 9 of those 17 have gone over 5. (5 games at 5 goals)

Last 15 times calgary has played at San Jose, 2 have gone under 5, and 10 of them have gone over 5. (3 games of 5 goals)

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Sam,

Incredible stat, awesome work. I really like playing teams in back to back road games, the over play has been very good to me this year in that situation. This just adds to making the play a little stronger.

GL Tomorrow!

HORNS