1 System Play for Thursday + Favs

D

Double Dribble

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Jan 19, 2002
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Well the system has been in a funk this week gonig 1-3. Still its overall record stands at 22-10 so knowing these funks will occur, I will continue to ride it to its finish. I didnt play the Wyoming game last night since it dipped under the minimum line of 19 1/2 but since it was still a system play I will consider it a loss. For those that do follow these plays, I would also recommend that if the line on the game dips lower then what i post, I would recommend laying off the play. I always wait until 5 minutes before gametime to put these games in. Only one system play for today.

Cleveland State +14 over Illinois - Chicago

Unlike the system, I dont have a problem playing favorites on my own so since these didnt show up as system dogs, Im also playing the following:

Tulsa -15 over UTEP - Best Play
Western Kentucky -11 over New Orleans
Manhatten -5 1/2 over Rider

GLTA

DD

Mush - still working on those teaser numbers. Will get back to you once i have something concrete to share.
 
S

spang

specialist
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Mar 22, 2000
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I posted this a bit earlier,

Lots of points..........
Cleve St. +14 vs. UIC. The Vikes take the show on the road tonight to battle Ill. Chic. Interesting is the fact that CSU has won and covered the last five games of this series. Also, CSU has been playing decent ball on the road this year. I'll take the generous 14 points and hope for the best.

Also playing:

W.Ky -11'
Denver -6'

GLTA
 
K

K-LINE

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Jun 7, 2002
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DD i really enjoy and respect the work you are
doing here on bb. was just wondering if the
recent decline in wins of the system plays has
anything to do with starting of conference play
or just the normal turning of a win streak.hope
they pick back up and would like to hear your
thoughts on this as i look forward to reading your
post and the games you have selected.
GOOD LUCK & keep them coming.
 
D

Double Dribble

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Jan 19, 2002
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bigplaymakerjoe / K-Line

bigplaymakerjoe / K-Line

Not sure why the line is so high. Illinois Chicago is a balanced offensive team who are strong at home. The last time out they beat a good Wisconsin Milwaukee team lighting them up for over 100 points. Cleveland state doesnt have near the firepower that Milwaukee has. This may have nothing to do with why this line was set at -14 but the line doesnt really surprise me knowing this.

K-Line as far as why the decline in the dog performance..well my interpretation is that it doesnt have anything to do with conference play. Keep in mind these games were setup to produce a profit at a 63% confidence level over the coarse of the season, meaning that 37% of the time they will miss. We were really surprised that the games were as successful as they were early on, over 70%. So this really isnt to surprising and even somewhat expected. 63% is pretty aggresive since a realistic winning percentage / margin would be around 56%.

So i think your point about the "normal" turning of a win streak is probably the one i would agree with most at this time. I really didnt think that 70% would last, not that i wasnt hoping it wouldnt, but I am a realist :shrug:

Good luck today as well

DD
 
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