10/16-10/18

[xerri]

NC State -5 -111, 3 units
Think the Wolfpack offense will have a big day. Clemson has had some trouble against the only decent passing teams they have faced as Georgia, Virginia, and Maryland all threw the ball pretty well against this secondary. Clemson also has some injury problems on the defensive line which could make matters worse. McClendon is getting healthier and should be good for at least 15-20 carries this game which should add some balance to their offense. Clemson also coming off an emotional OT win against Virginia so they may be in for a letdown here. NC State won 38-6 at Clemson last year and I look for them to cover the 5 at home.

Air Force +5 +101, 4 units
Haven't been too impressed with CSU's defense this year against a pretty mediocre schedule and think Air Force will be able to run the ball and control the clock in this game. Air Force's defense has been pretty solid allowing just 17 ppg and only 322 total ypg. They looked real good against a good UNLV running game allowing them to score just 7 points. Also think AF does a little better job taking care of the ball and on special teams. I'm expecting a close game the Falcons could win SU so taking the points.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL Tonight!

HORNS

 

[xerri]

adding
CSU/AF under 52 +102, 3 units
Seems like everyone is on the over yet the total has dropped a little since its opening. Same reasons as posted above as I think AF's defense will get the job done and I expect both teams to be running the ball a lot. Last 2 meetings have produced 43 and 49 points and both defenses playing pretty well right now allowing under 300 ypg the last 3 games so like the under.

 

[xerri]

USC -7.5 -108, 5 units and under 44.5 -110, 2 units
USC's defense has been terrific against the run allowing just 2.2 ypr and 74 rush ypg. They were able to shutout a pretty good running team in Auburn and gave up just 13 in a 44-13 win against the Irish last year. ND has struggled to score against the better defenses they have faced with just 10 against Purdue and 0 against Michigan. Last week against Pitt both their TD runs came in short yardage situations where Jones was able to break them because Pitt stacked the line. Pitt was highly overrated so wasn't surprised by the outcome as I took the ML in that one. I don't expect ND to get those same opportunities against a much better Trojans' defense. USC should be able to key on the run as Quinn has not proven he can beat anybody throwing the ball as he was just 5 for 17 for 33 yards against a mediocre Pitt defense. Special teams edge should also go to USC. Usually ND relies on big special teams' plays but they may not get those opportunities as USC has probably the best punter in the nation in Malone who is avg. about 49 ypp and USC puts most of their kickoffs in the endzone. Without good field position I really look for ND's offense to struggle. Another negative for the Irish is they will likely be without Setta who handles FGs and punts. He left last game early and his replacement averaged 37 ypp and missed 2 of his 4 FGs so don't be surprised to see some big returns or blocked kicks. I don't see ND scoring much over 10 points so like USC to get the cover as they have pretty good balance on offense with 3 good RBs and Williams and Colbert at WR. Like the under as I don't see ND doing much on offense.

 

[ajoytoy]

bol xerri!


toy

 

[xerri]

Tulane/Louisville under 67.5 -106, 4 units
I thought this total would come out around 60 so think this is a little high. Louisville's defense is pretty solid allowing just 18.5 ppg and they haven't had a game reach this total this year. Louisville also runs the ball pretty well at 200 ypg which should eat up some clock. Tulane has produced some high scoring games but I think that is the result of them having played some very poor defenses. They played Miss St., Houston, and Army which are probably 3 of the worst 10 defenses in college football. Texas put up 63 on them which could be expected and I don't think the Cards have the caliber of players to put up that many on Tulane. Their other game was the first game of the year against TCU in which 42 points were scored in the 4th quarter because Tulane got way behind and was forced to throw. I think this game will be relatively close and think Louisville will have some success running the ball so like the under at the high number.

 

[xerri]

Tulane/Louisville over 32 -110 2nd half, 2 units
Not feeling too confident about the under play for the game as these teams should have put up around 45 in the 1st half. Clock isn't moving at all when Tulane has the ball. Still have a chance at the under if Louisville plays conservative but not gonna take that chance as Tulane's defense is pathetic so will take the over to buy some of the over back which also gives an opportunity for a 4.5 point middle.

 

[xerri]

Tulane +6.5 -110 2nd 1 unit

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Hope you hit both tonight! GL

HORNS

 

[xerri]

Utah -2 -110, 4 units
Utes continue to impress now at 6-0 ATS on the season. They have dominated UNLV of late winning the last 4 meetings by 11 or more. Utah doesn't turn the ball over and Smith continues to get better each week at QB completing 71% of his passes with no INTs in 115 pass attempts. Warfield is solid at RB and Savoy is turning into a very good WR that can stretch the field and make big plays. UNLV relies on their running game with Croom and Dorsey and Utah has defended the run pretty well allowing just 3.3 ypr. Have not been impressed with Nantkes' ability to throw after watching him against AF and Wisconsin. Those are the only decent defenses he faced this season and he threw for under 100 yards in each game. Think the Utes have a few more options on offense so like their chances laying the low number.

Tulsa -1 +101, 5 units
Nevada opened as the favorite and it seems like everyone is on them yet line has shifted to Tulsa. Nevada coming off a huge win against Washington so this may be a good spot for Tulsa at home. Tulsa beat Hawaii at home and lost by just 7 in their last game at Boise so they are playing pretty well right now. Kilian has made a big difference at QB this season with 9 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also a good running threat with 344 rush yards and 5.8 ypr avg. Nevada's best RB Kretschmer left after just 4 carries against Washington so not sure if he will be 100% here. Their QB Heiser played his best game of the season by far and I don't see him duplicating that performance so like Tulsa to get the win.

Oklahoma under 58.5 -108, 3 units
Think this total is a bit high due to the Sooners' scoring of late. They have gone over 50 by themselves the last 4 games but don't think they can sustain that type of output every game. I think Missouri will really struggle against the Sooners' defense as they don't have enough playmakers at WR and OU will stop the run. Last year this matchup produced 55 points and the total was 47. These teams are not that different and I see this one going in the high 40's to low 50's.

Pittsburgh over 55.5 -112, 2 units
I think the Panthers may put up close to 50 points on their own in this game. Rutgers defense is not very good and they gave up 44 and 48 to Michigan St. and Virginia Tech. Don't think they have anyone that can matchup with Fitgerald and think he has a big day. Rutgers has shown better scoring ability this season putting up close to 30 per game and the Panthers' defense has struggled all season for the most part so think Rutgers can put up somewhere around 20 points.

MSU/Minnesota under 54.5 -110, 4 units
Purdue -2.5 -110, 2 units

 

[xerri]

North Carolina +6.5 -110, 4 units
Rice +3.5 -110, 2 units
FSU/Virginia under 50 -110 2 units and under 50.5 -110 2 units for a total of 4
Virginia +7.5, 3 units

 

[xerri]

Wyoming +1, -110 4 units
Virginia +7.5 -110 2 more units for 5 total

 

[xerri]

Stanford +4.5 -110 2nd half 4 units

 

[xerri]

Washington +7 -110 2nd half, 2 units
Think they win this game SU. OSU doesn't look good tonight and the Huskies are doing a nice job on Jackson.

 

[xerri]

record update
61-42 +36.91 units

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Nice job Thomas! Solid work! I am going to call you tomorrow for sure!

HORNS