10/2

[layinwood]

Overall 9-7 +2.95 for the year

Finally on the plus side after a slow start. I'm hammering this play as soon as I get the opening number. I don't care how low it is.

OU/UT under 46 4units


I'll edit this post with the total when I can get it.

 

[layinwood]

Stanford +7 1unit


I was very impressed with Stanford on the road at ND and UCLA. They are a very well coached team with good talent. I don't know if they can win here but I think they keep it close. IMO they'll try to control the ball and keep it away from the Ducks offense. I'm a little worried about the speed at home for Oregon but IMO Stanford is the more complete team.

 

[layinwood]

Texas Tech -6.5 3units


I wasn't going to play this game because I thought anything more than a td was taking a chance but at 6.5 I think it's a great bet. Normally I would steer clear of a line move like this with the public seeming to be on the same side as me but I think it's moved enough to give me value.

I may put up my stats that gives me my reasoning later but the short of it is because Iowa States defensive pass stats are scewed because of the lack of passing attacks they've faced. I believe two of the teams they've faced are the 100th and 108th rated passing teams.

Iowa St also doesn't have a big down the field passing game with their duel threat qb. This will allow Tubbs to play man to man on the outside and throw more blitzs at them.

Tech had a week off after their Texas loss and I think it's perfect timing. From what I've read they've gone back in on offense and are taking the plays they've run well and are doing nothing but trying to run those plays better. Less volume better quality is a good formula IMO.

 

[layinwood]

ND -2.5 1unit


After three straight weeks of being against ND I'm going to be on them. I don't think much of last weeks loss for them because I think it was a very bad situation for them. Coming off of a bad road loss and playing against a complete team that I think is a legit end of the year top 10 team.

I'm not sure anyone in the nation has had a tougher schedule than ND. Michigan is looking great, Stanford is a legit team and Mich St might not be the best but they're looking good and it was a road game. I think they bust loose on offense this week and BCs offense won't be able to keep up. Close game but ND wins and covers.

 

[layinwood]

Bama -7 1unit (bought half point)

I was waiting to see if this would go down without buying the half but I'm worried it will only go up from here. These games haven't been close between these two and I don't expect this one to be. Bama at home with IMO a better offense and defense. I expect Smart to test Florida early with a lot of blitzing. If Bama can prevent the big plays then they should be able to slow down the Florida offense. Could be close going into the 4th but I see the Bama offense wearing down the Flo defense.

 

[layinwood]

East Carolina +14 1unit

Last play for the week but I like East Caro to keep this game very close. I think they ran into a hornets nest vs VTech but I don't see that happening here. NC has lost too many players.

Lincoln Riley is the youngest coordinator in the FBS but he's very good and I think they've gotten enough games under their belt to really have this offense rolling.

NC wins but closer than the experts think!
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