10/25 College Football

[xerri]

61-42 +36.91 units

Kansas St. -20 -110, 6 units
Line opened at about 23 and has been bet down to 20 already. I think the linesmakers had a pretty good idea what was up when they opened with that number. KSU has played a very tough schedule leading to their 5-3 record while Kansas has played a relatively soft schedule as the only decent team they have faced is Missouri. Kansas hasn't played a tough road game yet as they lost at Northwestern and Colorado and beat Wyoming by just 7. I really don't see the Jayhawks' defense slowing down Sproles and Roberson. KU gave up 244 rush yards and 7 ypr against UNLV, 248 rush yards and 4.9 ypr against NW, 179 rush yards and 4.9 ypr against Wyoming which is a poor running team, and 179 rush yards and 4.6 ypr to Colorado. While they did pretty well against Missouri, that game was at home and Abron still had a big day with 17 carries for 112 yards. Kansas hasn't faced a team with KSU's speed on defense and I think they will struggle to score like they have been as KSU is allowing just 2.9 ypr despite the fact they have faced Texas, Oklahoma St., and Cal which are good offensive teams. Snyder loves to run the score up and you can be sure he will take the opportunity if given the chance against an in state rival at home. KSU has a huge advantage in defense and special teams. They have won the last 5 meetings by 64,34, 39,41, and 48. Kansas is better this year than year's past but I still expect a 30 points win for KSU as I don't see the Jayhawks' defense slowing them down. Like the home team in a rout.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I tried calling you on Sunday but I guess you were out. I will try again this week.
As for the game, guess we are going head to head. That is cool.
You had a great week last week. One thing I have noticed with KSU is their inconsistency in every game so far this year and I think this will be enough to keep the game inside the number. I got Kansas at +22. KSU is not the same team as other years. No big playmakers that are consistent on D. They are much more tested than the Jayhawks, no doubt. GL

HORNS

 

[xerri]

Sorry, I was out most of the day but didn't see any missed calls. I'll catch up with you later. We can't agree on them all but good luck this week.

 

[xerri]

Wednesday Night

Wednesday Night

W. Virginia +13.5 -110 4 units
Just think the Hokies may be a little overrated and think this is too many to lay on the road. VT has only played 1 road game and haven't play a team in the top 50 yet. Mountaineers are giving up just 20 ppg and they have played Miami, Wisconsin, and Maryland. Despite their 2-4 record they've played a lot of close games losing by more than 7 just once. Think they keep it close at home.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great points Thomas. Hope you hit it. I might play the under. GL

HORNS

 

[xerri]

Thursday play

Thursday play

Maryland -2.5 -111, 2 units
Don't like playing road chalk too much but think Maryland wins a close game here. Friedgen is a good coach and the Terps need to win games like this if they want to get into a good bowl game so think he will have them ready. The Yellowjackets struggle to score points and I think they will have some difficulty against a good Maryland defense that is allowing just 294 ypg. GT will struggle to run the ball with their walk on RB against a defense allowing just 2.8 ypr. Ball is a freshman and he still makes some mistakes. He has taken 20 sacks this year which could be a problem if they are forced to throw. Just hoping Maryland can keep him contained if he tries to run the ball. Maryland has an experienced secondary as well and GT doesn't have many weapons at WR outside of Smith so I don't see GT moving the ball through the air either and think Maryland can force Ball into some turnovers. Maryland also has the advantage in special teams. GT's punter avg. just 38 ypa compared to 45 for Maryland and Maryland has some dangerous kick returners. Hopefully Novak will be able to play in this game as he is an accurate K with great range which will help if it is a close game. Like GT's defense but think Maryland will get a few more scoring opportunities with their defense and special teams so like them to cover as a small fav.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Hope this hits like your WV play! GL

HORNS

 

[xerri]

Maryland under 41.5 -110, 2 units
Total has been around 38 and with a 3 point move I think there is some value in the under as it has crossed some key numbers. Think the Terps defense will shut down GT as Maryland hasn't been giving up many points except in garbage time against some weak teams when they had big leads. Maryland offense hasn't been great this year as a lot of their points have come against the likes of Citadel, E. Michigan, and Duke and only avg. around 20 ppg against everyone else. Both defenses allowing just around 300 yards of total offense. Think Maryland has a little better running game and defense so like them to win a low scoring game.

 

[xerri]

probably not gonna have time to write these up but this is the rest of what I like for tomorrow

New Mexico +8.5, 4 units
Bowling Green -3.5, 3 units
Middle Tennessee +2.5, 2 units
Houston +6, 2 units
Texas A&M +7, 2 units
Ole Miss +1, 1 unit
San Jose +26, 1 unit
all-110

 

[bigdad2]

xerri- nice write-up on the games you've posted and I'd be interested to see your take on the TCU/Houston game as I am on the other side. I got TCU at 5.5 and felt it was one of my stronger plays of the week. Regardless best of luck this weekend.

 

[taoist]

...damn, man.... that's pretty close to my card for this weekend also.... I'm on every one of these....

New Mexico +8.5, 4 units
Bowling Green -3.5, 3 units
Middle Tennessee +2.5, 2 units
Houston +6, 2 units
Texas A&M +7, 2 units



...good luck to us.

 

[xerri]

bigdad, despite TCU's 7-0 record I don't really feel this team has been challenged by a quality opponent. If you look at their schedule they played Tulane, Navy, Vandy, Arizona, Army, South Florida, and UAB. I would not rank any of these teams in my top 75 in the nation and those are some very poor offensive teams. They scored just 17 against Navy and 27 against Army who are traditionally weak defensive teams. Their margin of victory has been very narrow despite their weak schedule beating Arizona, South Florida, and UAB by just 3 in 3 of their last 4 wins. Houston has been able to move the ball all year avg. 401 ypg and 433 at home. With Lousville on deck and a chance at running the table, I think TCU may get caught looking ahead here. Although Houston's defense is pathetic I am not confident enough in TCU's offense to lay points on the road as I could possibly see Houston winning SU if their defense steps it up at home. Also I think this line was set to draw TCU money and the public is on them big. Not a big play for me b/c of Houston's defense, as it is possible TCU may run all over them, but think Houston is better offensively than anyone they have faced so I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them win this one. Also Gunn is questionable for TCU at QB which is another possible problem.

 

[xerri]

Temple -3.5 -110, 3 units
Have a feeling the Owls are favored for a reason here even though they are 1-6. Temple has won the last 4 meetings and has played a tough schedule against Miami, BC, Lousivlle, Cincy, and Penn St. Rutgers' only wins were against Buffalo, Army, and Navy so not exactly impressive there. Although they played VT and Pitt close, the final scores were not indicative of the games as they had huge deficits in those games and got back door covers. Think Temple wins by at least a TD at home in this game.

Arizona St. +2.5 +101, 1 unit

 

[xerri]

last adds
Indiana +13 1st half -110 1 unit
Oklahoma over 32.5 1st half -110 1 unit
Iowa/PSU under 38.5 game -110 2 units

 

[bigdad2]

xerri- thanks for the post. I agree with you that TCU has not played an impressive schedule but I also agree that Houston's defense is pathetic. Giving points on the road is a tough spot and I like most of the rest of your picks, especially A&M.

Best of luck this weekend.

 

[xerri]

FSU -18.5 -110 2 units
Northwestern +10 -110 2 units
San Diego St. -3 -110 2 units
Georgia -29 -110 2 units

added to these
Ole Miss 2 units total
Texas A&M 3 units total
Kansas St. 7 units total

 

[xerri]

Alabama +2 -110 2nd half, 3 units

 

[Jaxx]

Nice call on k. state I was on the other side. I will pay more attention to your plays in the future(especially your bigger ones)
GLTA

 

[Antonio]

Xerri am also gonna gram Ala +2 2nd half. Great year and continued success.