10/30 NBA Play

[Nick Douglas]

One play on opening night. Let's all have a great season.

Indiana +150 over NEW JERSEY 300/450 (WSEX)

The two big keys for Indy this season are Tinsley and Harrington. In Tinsley, Thomas seems to have found the pass first point he has coveted since taking over the job. O'Neal presents real mismatch problems down low in this game against McCullough or Martin. The most important thing here is that Indy is an up tempo team and New Jersey has a very thin bench. Once you get past athletic rookie Richard Jefferson, they have very little talent. If Tinsley runs the show well the Pacers have a definite offensive advantage in this spot.

 

[Hoops]

Problem with Tinsley is he is going against Kidd. As good as Kidd is offensively, he is an excellent defender as well. I think Best will get his minutes once Tinsley shows problems running the team with Kidd all over him. Also, Kidd can post him up all day long on the other end of the court.

Nets bench is a concern. But Scott is going to have this team running, regardless. Kidd will play 40 minutes, and with him, Kittles, and Martin, not many teams quicker from baseline to baseline at the 1/2/3 positions.

I think Martin will draw Rose defensively, leaving Van Horn on O'Neal. Van Horn can't guard his shadow, nothing new, but O'Neal is still, at best, the third option on offense, Key is keeping him off the offensive glass. And watch for MacCulloch...he is going to surprise people.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks, Hoops.

Actually, looking at some things this afternoon I am thinking of laying off this game. I looked at the lines you and JT Sneaks guessed last night and you both had Indy favored, and now they are dogs. That worries me because I wonder if books are trying to get sucker bets on Indy. Thanks for the insight. I will post by about 2 or 2:30 PST if I lay off. There is one other game I am looking at taking in its place or in addition.

 

[jmizeus]

NICK, i like indiana as well! think wrong team is favored here ist of all! i have indiana winning by 4-6 here! even though its only day 1!

GL-MIZE think the ml is a good bet

 

[Nick Douglas]

Alright folks, I am sorry about this because I know it looks bad, but this is what I did.

After looking at the Forum and some thoughts from Hoops and a look at the way the lines have looked at a few key books, I bought back my play on Indy.

NEW JERSEY -170 over Indiana 510/300

Essentially, that makes it so that if the Nets win the game, I push and if Indy wins I lose $60.

I then added one play for late night.

Seattle +275 over SACRAMENTO 200/550

I may add another $100 on this play later. Possibly on the spread. I am still a bit undecided. Payton should have the best year of his career in 2001-2002. The point guards in the west have never been softer. He also now has arguably the most active team in the west along with Portland with Lewis, Mason and Barry by his side. Bibby will really struggle to contain Payton. WIthout Webber inside, Baker will avoid getting bitched like he usually does against Sacramento. Guard play is suach a key early in the season and Seattle has a big edge tonight. They should win this game.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Decided to put my other $100 for the Seattle wager on the spread. This will be it for me tonight.

Seattle +7 over SACRAMENTO 110/100

 

[NJO]

I full agree with the Seattle call. Good luck.

As for New Jersey, I see them as a real troublemaker for teams in the East this year -- Van Horn sounds very happy to have Kidd on board, and I like Kenyon Martin.

Scott, as a second year coach, should be markedly better this year, as well, and I think McCullough at center is not that bad an option.

I strongly leaned to NJ tonight, actually, but ultimately just played Boston -2.5.

For your sake, go Sonics.