10/4/02 Yanks Analysis

[jderrida]

Well, 1-0 so far on the Yanks in game 1. I am still betting them large for the series, but layed off game 2 due to the fact that I hate betting for a team that won the first game especially @ -180 with Pettite going in game 2. Anyway, I think Mussina is going to give NYY a 2-1 edge after tomorrow and this is why:

New York Yankees
BATTER OBP SLG AVG

Jason Giambi .533 .909 .364 1hr (11AB)
Derek Jeter .524 .471 .412 (17AB)
Raul Mondesi .333 .636 .273 2hr (22AB)
Alfonso Soriano .333 .500 .333 (6AB)
Bernie Williams .267 .286 .214 (14AB)

Again, Giambi, and Jeter along with some regulars look like they can do some damage against Ortiz.



Anaheim Angels
BATTER OBP SLG AVG
Garret Anderson .389 .471 .353 (17AB)
Darin Erstad .200 .250 .200 (20AB)
Brad Fullmer .231 .360 .200 1hr (25AB)
Troy Glaus .357 .250 .250 (12AB)
Adam Kennedy .333 .666 .333 (9AB)
Bengie Molina .375 .625 .375 (8AB)
Tim Salmon .200 .167 .111 (18AB)
Scott Spiezio .364 .500 .300 (10AB)

While some of these guys, like G. Anderson look dangerous, guys like Ertad, Glaus, and Salmon who have had over 10AB's against MOOSE are hitting below .260. If the Angels beat the Yanks, it will be with guys who are not typically in the slot to win games.

Moreover,

Mussina is 5-0 lifetime against ANGELS with an ERA of 3.53
Mussina is 3-0 lifetime in October with an ERA of 0.95
Mussina is 89-49 away with an ERA of 3.51
Mussina is 122-66 at night with an ERA of 3.60

Ortiz is 1-1 lifetime against the YANKS with an ERA of 5.66
Ortiz is 0-1 lifetime in October with an ERA of 7.50
Ortiz is 20-14 at home with an ERA of 4.23
Ortiz is 32-22 at night with an ERA of 4.08

Looks like the Yanks should be about a -150 road fav against at the least when compared to the Angels....@ -130 Mussina looks like the play and is getting a favorable line on the road.

Also, Mariano Rivera did not pitch the last game while Troy Percival did, so I would give the relivers for the YANKS the edge as Ben Weber hurt his pitching hand in the previous game when the Angels tied the series 1-1 with that 8-6 win.

I would expect the Yanks to come out and try prevent the Angels from putting the series away in game 4 if they win this one.

While the UND looks tempting with the UMP, I think that I will steer clear of any totals in this series, although the UND is probable if the weather helps out, but I don't like betting on the weather as the MO of determining the total.

Well,

Good luck whatever your play may be....

GO YANKS.....

JD

 

[ddubs]

jderrida, it's prob a typo, but i wanted to point out Mussina is 12-5 lifetime vs Ana, not 5-0.

Ana has never faced Moose as an Yankee, the last time was in 2000 with the birds, where he was 2-2 vs Ana.

Anyways, good luck, don't underestimate the power of the "Rally Monkey"

 

[jderrida]

ddubs:

yes, you are right....I guess that does prove people read these posts! LOL.....

Acutally, quite late last night, I looked over the row and had his SV's =0 not W/L, which is 12-5. Actually, over 2000-2002 he is 1-2 with a 4.74 era, but I this record doesn't reflect the bats of NYY. I think that while Ortiz is a great young pitcher, NYY must win this game or risk the possibility of playing game 4 in Calif down 2-1 in a series that might not make it back to NY for game 5. But, that's just my .02.....plus, my girlfriend, who's from Manhattan and hates sports will actually allow me to wager more than $2000 a game on NYY for some odd reason....I just hope that she doesn't have a need for another Prada bag or Gucci shoes! LOL

 

[jderrida]

Well, many different interpretations on this game tonight, but decided to go with my first inclination and analysis along with the support of my New York family:


NYY -130 to win 4 units or (4 boxes of ZITI)


Good luck tonight,

JD