10/9 Four Picks (Sort of...)

EYO's Chadman

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Aug 23, 2003
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Sorry, guys...really late today. Will not count the Washington game on the record, since it has started, but posting the writeup anyway. Otherwise, let's go get'em!

(NHL) New York Islanders @ Washington
2* Washington -140

These two Eastern Conference foes both made the playoffs last year, although New York needed some help to squeak in. Washington was last seen losing four straight to Tampa. Not to be outdone, the Isles lost four straight to Ottawa, getting outscored 13-4 on their way out the door. Now the Isles come back with a new head coach, Steve Stirling, who implements a Minnesota-style trap scheme. They immediately embark on a 7-0-0 preseason campaign that sees them allow just 1.14 goals per game. Just an illusion? Probably. Goalie Rick DiPietro, had an impressive preseason, although he had never shown much in 30 previous NHL games. He will split time with vet Garth Snow, who gets the call tonight. Snow has a career .902 save percentage, with 2.74 goals allowed on average. He took a 3-0 loss last year in his only career start against the Caps. At the other end of the ice, Olaf Kolzig is coming off a solid year with a .919 SP that jumped to .927 in the playoffs. He could have carried the Caps to the semis if their own scoring hadn't dried up. In four games versus the Isles last season, Olie stopped 104 of 109 shots for a .954 SP. He shouldn't have it too hard facing the Isles' top line tonight. The overrated Alexi Yashin (-74 career) is coming off his worst year, connecting on just 9.5% of his shots, for 26 goals in 81 games. Linemate Oleg Kvasha is a long-time underachiever, scoring on just 8.7% of his career shots. Although Washington's top line saw a very slight dip in production last year, they appear to be more likely to rebound. Jaromir Jagr (+212 career) didn't appear superhuman, but did provide moments of brilliance, especially at home. In fact, 52 of his 77 points came at home. He also tallied 7 points in 4 games against the Isles. If Jagr and the Caps can get to Garth Snow early, they will look to go in for the kill. If they can stretch the lead, the trap will go out the window, along with the Isles' preseason record. The Caps were 24-15-2 at home in the regular season last year, while the Isles were 17-18-6 on the road. Washington has dominated this matchup like no other, going 23-1-3 in the last 27 meetings with the Isles. The Caps are 12-0-2 in their last 14 as the home team in the series. The home opener is the perfect scenario to extend that impressive run.

(NHL) Anaheim @ Nashville
1* Nashville -115

How can the lowly Predators, winless in their last 15 regular season games, be favored over the Stanley Cup runners-up? Catch the Ducks in a tough scheduling spot overwhelmed by negative trends. The Ducks travel to Music City without rest, after looking sloppy in their 4-1 loss to the Stars. Last season, Anaheim was just 1-9-1 when playing in their second road game in two days. They are 3-18-2 in their last 23 in that spot. Last year, any team playing in Dallas in the first game was 1-8-0 in that spot. Nashville was the beneficiary several times last year, going 4-0-0 as the host of that second game. The Pred play their home opener after a 2-3-2 preseason in which they allowed a respectable 2.43 GAA. Workhorse starter Tommy Vokoun had a solid 2.20 GAA and .918 SP last year, but an even better 2.00 GAA in 4 games against the Ducks. Nashville has a very capable top line that will continue to improve, and they've always held their own at home against Anaheim. The Pred are 4-4-2 as hosts in the series.

(NHL) Anaheim @ Nashville
1* Under 5 -140

These two goalies are very stingy when playing up to par. Nashville doesn't have the shooters to victimize Giggy like the Stars did last night, and the Anaheim offense doesn't quite have it together yet, either. More trends in what should be a tight game: The under is 9-2-0 in the last 11 meetings between the Ducks and Pred, and 5-0-0 in the last 5. The under is 4-0-0 in 4 games between Giguere and Vokoun. The under is 6-0-2 the last 8 times the Ducks have played without rest. The under is 7-0-2 in Nashville's last 9 regular season games. Look for this one to stay low and tight.

(NHL) Los Angeles @ Detroit
1* Los Angeles +220

On the surface, a "David versus Goliath" matchup here. The Kings are coming in missing offensive weapons Deadmarsh and Allison, yet somehow they must overcome the usually sturdy Detroit D as well as Dominik Hasek in net. The Kings are fresh off a productive preseason, going 5-2-1 with a 1.75 GAA, while Detroit allowed 3.00 goals per game on their way to a 2-6-1 record. 38-year-old Hasek has yet to bust the rust after a year away from the net. It should also be noted that he has always been a slow starter, with a 2.88 GAA and .904 SP in Octobers, far below his 2.23 and .924 career numbers. In other words, schedule him early if you can. Roman Cechmanek (1.96 GAA, .923 SP) will make his regular season debut between the pipes for the Kings. He is 2-0 lifetime against the Wings, but has never faced them at the Joe. The Kings, although recently 0-4-1 in Detroit, have been outscored by a total of just 5 goals in those 5 games. LA is 3-2-0 in their last 5 against Hasek. The key tonight is to continue the defensive toughness they've shown in the preseason, let Cechmanek do his thing, and wait for an opportunity to take advantage of Hasek's current form. If they can get off 30 shots, the Kings should win this game. Ziggy Palffy, with help from returnees Robitaille and Stumpel, should be able to provide some firepower.
 
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