11/1 College Football

[xerri]

70-55 +39.69 units

Arkansas -3 -110, 4 units
Getting this one early as I think line may go up. Still think the Razorbacks are a quality team despite 3 straight losses. They've just faced a tough schedule with some hot teams in Auburn, Florida, and Ole Miss. Should be easier this week with Kentucky. Wildcats haven't beaten a decent team yet with their wins coming against Mississippi State, Ohio, and Indiana and this is probably the best team they have faced thus far. Kentucky can't run the ball and Arkansas has a terrific secondary allowing just 186 pass ypg while facing the likes of Texas, Ole Miss, and Florida. Louisville ran for close to 250, Alabama close to 300, and S. Carolina,Ohio and Miss. St. all rushed for around 200 against the Cats' defense. Arkansas has a huge OL that should punish Kentucky's defense. I expect the Hogs to control the clock and run at will so will lay the 3 points here.

Michigan St. +4.5, 3 units
Spartans are playing about as well as anyone right now. Home team has won the L5 meetings and Michigan has had their problems on the road. They are 1-2 and they were dominated for 3 quarters in their improbable comeback against Minnesota. MSU has been great against the run allowing just 2.7 ypr. When Michigan doesn't run the ball well they really struggle on offense. From what I have seen of Michigan, they don't get a great pass rush. MSU runs a spread offense and Smoker is doing a great job of reading defenses and getting the ball to the right receivers. Think Michigan is a little overpriced here due to their blowout against an overrated Purdue team. Think MSU wins SU so will take the points and may take the ML later as well.

Utah +3, 3 units
Utah has played a much tougher schedule and think they are the better all around team. AF's best wins are against BYU and UNLV which are two pretty mediocre teams. Utah has already beaten Colorado St., Cal, and Oregon, they dominated UNLV in Vegas and lost by just 2 at Texas A&M. Utes run defense has been solid and I think Meyer will put together a pretty good gameplan on offense. I am aware Warfield may not play but they have capable backup RBs. I think Utah got caught looking ahead against New Mexico and expect them to bounce back with the win here.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

That is scary, I circled all 3 of those games. I will be posting the Ark and MSU plays for sure tomorrow. I already grabbed all 3 of them. Pitt is my other early play! GL

HORNS

 

[pt1gard]

good write ups

good write ups

but isnt florida better than arky? they did play at KY and trailed 21-3 end of 3q .. not really disagreeing with arky call b/c they were once the SEC rd warriors but have slipped on banana peel as of late ... Will give KY their due after scroing 42 straight after trailing 17-0 to JSherrill ... I feel arky almost has to win this too for bowls etc

like utah to bounce back, that was weird line and movement vs NM and they were shellacked

Mich st might be good ML play, i see them winning su or Mich flexing to somewhat comfortable win if they Mind-eff spartans

thanx for the in depth thoughts

gl,
gregg

 

[hawkeye]

LIKE ARK-SOOOEE PIGS WIN ONE THIS WEEK--HOPING ALL THIER RUNNING BACKS ARE BACK

 

[xerri]

Was thinking about that Pitt play too Horns. I'm gonna watch the line on that before I decide.

pt1gard, although Florida trailed 21-3, they really weren't playing well at the time and that was Leak's first start at QB. They really didn't play well at all until the last couple of games. I just think there is good line value here due to their recent losses, none of which are really bad losses. If it was earlier in the season I think Arkansas would probably be about -6 or more. I agree that this is a must win if they want a chance at a decent bowl too.

 

[xerri]

Oklahoma -15 -110, 8 units
I think the Sooners are far and away the best team in the country right now and think there is good reason for this high line. You can be sure Oklahoma will be ready for this game as the Cowboys upset them the past 2 years as 15 and 27.5 point dogs. OU beat UCLA 59-24, Texas 65-13, and Missouri 34-13 and those are some pretty decent teams especially defensively. OSU has played a pretty easy schedule with their best wins being against Texas Tech by 2 and Kansas St. by 4. They gave up 34 and 49 points in those games while the majority of the rest of the offenses they played are trash so I think OU can put up some points. The only good defensive team the Cowboys have faced were the Huskers and they scored just 7 in that game losing by 10 in Lincoln and that has been their only tough road game as their other ones were against A&M and SMU. I see this much like I saw the Kansas St. game last week and expect an easy victory for the home team.

 

[AR182]

xerri,

i'm glad to see someone else liking okla. after surfing through the various sites, i was starting to think that i would be the only one on okla.

congratulations on a great year & continued success.

 

[gardenweasel]

make that 3 on oklahoma...

make that 3 on oklahoma...

i took okie st at 17 feeling fairly certain it would drop to at least 15,maybe 14....maybe a small middle...but i lean strongly to the sooners if the line is reasonable...17`s a bit high for me...

i looked hard at arkansas and would have moved on them if so many runnung backs weren`t injured.....

as for utah and mich st,i have them in my early looks thread.....i feel sort of stupid for not reading your previous posts.....the write-ups are very well done and logical.....

great job......another poster i`ll be looking for in the future.....well done...

 

[xerri]

Duke +26 -110, 2 units
Duke played pretty well last game losing by just 7 to the Wolfpack and Tennessee has to be drained coming off their 5 OT victory at Alabama. Vols also have Miami on deck so this is a great spot for a look ahead and they are likely to rest anyone who is banged up. Just hoping Duke can hang around for the first 2 or 3 quarters and they should get an opportunity for a back door if it is close to the number late.

 

[gardenweasel]

i don`t see

i don`t see

anyway that tennessee can be motivated here....and with miami on deck?......i can`t believe i missed this....i just bought it to 27 and hit it at 5 dimes....

tenn has shown no inclination to blow out the lesser teams this year anyway.....and this is a lesser tenn club to begin with...

great work xerri.....

 

[xerri]

Thursday plays. I'm sure these won't be too popular. Gonna wait to play these as I think I can get a better line so will update lines later.

Troy St. +11 -110, 2 units
I don't see these teams being far apart at all so think this spread is a little too big. Troy St.'s losses are to Kansas St., Minnesota, Nebraska, and Virginia and they played Nebraska and Virginia pretty well defensively allowing just 24 and 30 points. Those are some great defenses so not really surprised they struggled to score there. They have won the games they are supposed to and even beat Marshall. TSU's defense is allowing just 23 ppg, 360 ypg, and 3.7 ypr despite the difficult schedule. North Texas is a running team and they haven't put up much against good defenses as their recent high scoring outputs were against Middle Tenn, Idaho, Lafayette, and Utah St which are all pretty bad defenses. Troy St. held KSU to just 3.4 ypr and Nebraska and Virginia to 4 and 4.1 ypr. I doubt NT has the talent of those teams so I think Troy can hold their own and keep the Mean Green around 17-20 points. North Texas' strength has always been great defense but they don't appear quite as dominant as last year as they are giving up 26 ppg and over their last four games against the aforementioned teams they have given up 28, 27,14, and 23 points so I have a feeling Troy St. can get at least 14 and get the cover.

BYU +8 -107, 4 units
Boise's numbers are impressive but that is because they haven't played anyone as their schedule has consisted of Idaho St., Idaho, Wyoming, La. Tech, Tulsa, SMU,San Jose St, and the only good team they have played which is Oregon St, who isn't anything special. I would guess at least 4 of those 8 teams aren't in the top 100 while Oregon St. is the only one in the top 75. The Broncos struggled to score against OSU as 14 of their 24 points came off a punt return and a 67 yd. pass. BYU's defense has been very solid with the exception of 2 games as they are giving up just 302 ypg on the season. BYU got their QB Berry back a few games ago and I think BYU can have some success running the ball against an untested defense with Brathwaite who is avg. 6.2 ypr. Given BSU's schedule, I see no reason for them to be favored by a full TD in a place like Provo. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cougars get the win at home so will take the points as it should be a close game.

 

[gman2]

xerri:

have never really posted in your thread, but felt you should know i hold your plays and thoughts in high esteem. excellent work, and i often reference your plays to compare and contrast my own along with a few other guys. continued success. can respect and appreciate the work you put in.

 

[xerri]

Thanks gman, I always look for your plays. GL this weekend.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I really like that Duke play as well. This will be Duke's SuperBowl. Tennesse coming off that 5OT win and Miami on deck, the line is set at a key number. Great work!

HORNS

 

[xerri]

adding Troy St. under 40.5 -110, 1 unit
Looks like there will be high winds and both teams like to run the ball a lot so think this will be a close low-scoring game.

 

[xerri]

adding one more for Thursday
BYU/Boise under 53 +100 2 units
I don't think Boise's offense is quite as good as everyone thinks. I also think BYU will be able to run the ball effectively and keep possession with some time consuming drives which should eat up some clock.

 

[xerri]

Friday Play

Friday Play

Bad day yesterday. Hopefully the weekend will be better.

Cincinnati +2.5 -101, 5 units
I know Cincy struggled last week against Army winning by just 4 but the final score was a little misleading as Army had just 138 yards of offense. They scored 22 points from a blocked punt, and 2 shorts drives of 7 and 11 yards. I wasn't too impressed with South Florida after watching them against TCU a few weeks ago. Banks is not a very accurate passer and takes a lot of sacks when he feels pressure. USF also doesn't have much of a running game and commits a lot of penalties which makes it hard to move the ball. The Bearcats' run defense has been great allowing just 2.2 ypg and just 76 rush ypg. If they can force S. Florida into obvious passing situations, I think they can force Banks into some mistakes. Looking back at USF's schedule, they really haven't played well at all with their wins being against Nicholls St., Army, Charleston Southern, and Louisville. The Louisville win was a good win but it wasn't easy as they trailed by 7 with just 10 seconds left and eventually won in OT. They have struggled to score against good teams scoring just 17 against Alabama, 10 against TCU, 6 against S. Miss, and they had just 14 points against Louisville until they scored at the end of regulation. I think Cincy has a few more weapons on offense and think they have the advantage in the kicking game as Santiago is no where near as good as his brothers so like Cincy's chances if it is close.

 

[xerri]

Notre Dame +11.5 -110, 4 units
FSU has had some trouble running the ball this season while ND has been good against the run. I don't trust Rix against a good defense and think he will make a few mistakes. The Irish offense has been improving the last several weeks. Quinn has gotten a lot better at QB and I think he has a chance to be a good one. He threw for 350 yards last week vs. BC. Like the Irish to keep it close at home.

Penn St. +7 -110, 3 units
Ohio St. has been terrible ATS on the road the last couple of seasons. Considering their struggles on offense a TD is a lot to be getting at home. OSU hasn't been able to find much of a running game w/o Clarett avg. just 3.2 ypr on the season. The strength of PSU's defense is their pass defense where they are allowing just 127 ypg on 5.6 ypa. Krenzel also lost one of his best targets in Carter who was the team's 2nd leading receiver. PSU has lost some close games at home and I think they will hang around and possibly pull the upset so will take the points.

UCLA -6 -110, 3 units and 1st half -3 -109 2 units
Stanford has really struggled in conference play losing by 35, 11, 10, and 23 points and they don't have much on offense. I could see them being held to around 10 points against this Bruin defense. I think UCLA has enough speed at the skill positions to get a few big plays and cover the low line. Their freshman RB Drew got a few more carries and had a breakout game against ASU last week. He's got big play ability and should start making more of an impact the rest of the season.

Virginia Tech +3.5 -105, 3 units
Miami has been able to survive some close calls this year but think they get their 1st loss in Blacksburg. I think they will really feel the loss of Gore in this game as I don't think Payton is good enough to get the job done against a good defense, and I don't really trust Berlin who has more INTs than TDs this year which is hard to belive considering the talent around him. Hokies got caught looking ahead in their last game and I think they will play a good game at home vs. the Canes.

 

[xerri]

recap of plays:

Oklahoma -15 -110, 8 units
Arkansas -3 -110, 4 units
Notre Dame +11.5 -110, 4 units
UCLA -6 -110, 3 units
Penn St. +7 -110, 3 units
Michigan St. +4 -110, 3 units
Utah +3 -110, 3 units
Virginia Tech +3.5 -105, 3 units
UCLA -3 -109, 2 units
Duke +26 -110, 2 units

Friday:
Cincy +2.5 -101, 5 units

Thursday:
BYU +8 -107, 4 units L
BYU under 53 +100, 2 units L
Troy St. under 40.5 -110, 1 unit W
Troy St. +11 -110, 2 units L

 

[xerri]

adding
S. Florida under 46 -110, 2 units
I don't see USF scoring a lot of points in this game so like Cincy and under.