11/23 NHL Play

[Nick Douglas]

One for tonight. Good luck all.

TAMPA BAY +1/2 +135 over New Jersey 400/540

New Jersey has given up a whopping 18 goals on 125 shots over their last five games, an awful 14.4% shooting percentage against. Tampa has shot just about 10%, a good number, as they have converted 12 goals on 124 shots over their last five. Right now New Jersey is just giving up too many good scoring chances and Brodeur is not very sharp. Khabibulin has been very sharp, especially at home where Tampa would be 6-4 with the half goal (NJ would be 2-6 away giving the half goal). Tampa leads the league in one goal losses so even in their losses they are a very competitive team this year looking to take advantage of a struggling New Jersey team.

 

[bosco]

Nick,

Great info.

Thoughts on the OVER?

GL

bosco

 

[Nick Douglas]

I think if you are going to play the total the over is the way to go, but I am not sure if it is a strong play. Here is how I see it:

Tampa has not gone over 5 goals in their last 10 (0-4-6 over vs. a 5 goal line). New Jersey over is 4-4-2 over their last 10 vs. a 5 goal line. Those raw stats make the over look like a questionable play even with a +110 line. The other problem is that Khabibulin and Brodeur, when on top of their games, are two of maybe the top five netminders in the league. Certainly Khabibulin qualifies there this year. So you are taking a risk anytime you play an over with those two in net.

All that said, with those recent shooting percentage number and the fact that both teams have surrendered at least 2 goals in nine of their last ten make the over the play if you are going to play the total. Bottom line for me is that I have to pass but if you want a recommendation one way or the other, it would be over.