11/7 NHL Play

[Nick Douglas]

Can you believe it is ten years since Magic announced he had HIV? Amazing.

I added one play late today.

Atlanta vs. NEW JERSEY under 6 -120 600/500 (Alladin's Gold)

As you can see this is a strong play for me. Basically as high as I will go at this time on an NHL play.

The WWF ran the Meadowlands last night so the ice will be choppy. Last night the Isles played the night after a WWF show and the level of play was palatably lower than normal because of the ice. Atlanta will have great trouble creating scoring chances because they are overmatched. In eight prior games against New Jersey (all over the last two years where they had similar caliber teams) they have been outscored 38-9. In a blowout scenario, there is little incentive for the home team to pour it on once the score reaches 4-1 or 5-0. I got this angle from Tiger, who has written before about the value of under bets in mismatch games.

At most books this line is -130 or greater. At -130, I suggest a slightly more modest bet because usually I cap totals plays at -120. Those of you who can find -120 should definitely take a strong look at making a solid play here.

 

[infinii]

great info on the ice surface, thanks nick

 

[Kronheim]

No doubt, that is outstanding info. Thanks Nick!

 

[Stag]

Nick.......i liked your points.......I agree with you.
the Devils are my favorite team and I watch them all the time.
WHENEVER you get a total of 5.5 (or higher)on a New Jersey game (regardless of their opponent), an UNDER play is very strong. The Devils are like the Atlanta Braves, don't score much-but don't give up much either. My guess is NJ has played the lowest scoring hockey games over the last 7 seasons than any other NHL team.
TONIGHT, we get a gift total with 6. Yes, Atlanta has trouble keeping the puck out of the net. But, look for NJ to play keep away with a nice lead in the 3rd period and not try to score too much.
Remember....this is the SAME NJ team that often had TOTALS of 4.5ov an 5un in the recent past. I don't ever recall seeing a total of 6 goals on a Devils game!!
Love the under here and I will play it also. I just don't like laying the -125 on any total for a lot of money. That's why I went with the Salami under 26.5 -105 when it opened this morning as my top play. Now I see it at 26.5 -120. Should be a low-scoring night.

Stag

 

[Never Caught Up]

Ditto - totally with you on this play.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Boy did I get lucky here. Way too many scoring chances for both sides on this one. For those of you that watched the game those early goals were mostly pretty soft and this easily could have gone over despite the low shot total. I said to myself before the game that as long as NJ got out in front the under was safe. When ATL went up 2-0 in the first five mins I thought I was toast.

I want to add a comment on the WWF affecting ice conditions. The WWF is a bit different from an NBA game or most other events held the night before in that they use a lot of pyro that heats up the arena and a lot of times that can mess with the ice. I will have to take a look at Tuesday and Wednesday games played after WWF shows because if the matchup leans under already, those could be strong plays.

 

[Stag]

not pretty...but we'll take it!