12/28 Bowls

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
gonna start with a brief (i hope) chat about motivation for a football game. obviously it's a huge topic, and rightfully so, during bowl season. but i feel like it's very misunderstood. just because a team isn't fired up to play a particular game doesn't mean they're not going to play hard on the field. with some exceptions, mostly at the NFL level, guys play hard. you gotta. you don't, and you're gonna get hurt. because the guy trying to knock you on your ass doesn't care how motivated you are.

where the lack of motivation shows up is in practice and film study. if you're not interested in the upcoming game, you may not be paying full attention during the week. where that manifests itself in the game is things like turnovers and penalties. and stuff that will show up when you watch film of that game. maybe a missed block or a missed assignment on defense that led to a big play.

this concludes smitty's discussion on motivation.

Fenway Bowl

ah, the annual "yankee stadium got a bowl game, so we wanted one" game. whoop-de-friggin-do.

talk about a huge motivational edge. UNC started the season with such promise, winning on the road at minnesota. then, after beating a couple of scrubs, they gave up 70 (SEVENTY!!) at home to JMU. that started a 4-game losing streak. they bounced back with 3 straight wins to become bowl-eligible, then promptly lost their last 2, to BC and NC St. the shitshow led to mack brown getting fired. and imagine the distraction that followed when they hired some washed up NFL coach who was so bad that the patriots(!) fired him. AND... he's dating a chick a lot of them want to fuck. do you really think they're focused on the uconn huskies?

ok, the obvious... it's a bowl game for uconn!! joe fagnano (or joey fags, as nobody except smitty calls him) had a solid year, averaging 8.1 yards/att with 18 TDs and only 4 INTs. and they have two very good RBs in robinson (6.8/carry) and edwards (5.9). edwards really came on late in the season. his last 4 games, he had 50 carries for 399 yards (8 yards/carry, for the mathematically-disinclined).

very important stat... uconn was 1-0 in massachusetts this year, while UNC was 0-1. they lost at boston college 11/23 and, for their troubles, get to come right back to beantown.

ok, one more note in regards to motivation... they're expecting game-time weather to be 36 degrees and rain. talk about miserable. so you are UNC... finishing up a crap season... some teams get to go south, but you gotta play in THAT weather. i can personally attest to how much that sucks. back in my playing days, we finished our season at Assumption (middle of massachusetts). we entered the game at 1-7. it was in the low 40s and rained the entire game. now, i hope the field at fenway is better than that field we played on. it was so muddy, that if you got into a 3-point stance in some spots, your hand sunk right through to the concrete or whatever the hell was underneath that field. anyway, late in the game, it was so bad that us benchwarmers were hoping we DIDN'T get put into the game. we were just trying to find spots on the sideline where we wouldn't sink into the mud. sure enough, last possession of the game, they put in ol' smitty. great. 3 plays, absolutely soaked, for nothing. since it was the last game, most guys just left their socks and jocks in the locker room after the game. felt kinda bad for whoever had to clean that up.

oh, right, uconn.

uconn (ML) 5 to win 6
 

EwaBrownsbacker

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 15, 2014
134
40
28
Ewa Beach, HI
Smitty first of all, I've been a lurker for over 20 years...you are absolutely hilarious and astute with your analysis.... I feel like I've watched 6,588 of your post before...
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Pinstripe Bowl

more miserable weather. mid-40s and a lot of rain.

perfect matchup for this weather. two mediocre power 5 teams.

James took over as the starting QB for BC the last 3 games. BC went 2-1, beating UNC and Pitt at home and losing by 10 at SMU.

Freshman Raiola played like a freshman for Nebraska. some ups, some downs. 12 TDs and 10 INTs.

two teams that probably don't really want to be here.

i'm not wasting time on this shit show. bill o'brien is in his first year at BC, so....

Nebraska (-4) 2.1 to win 2
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Smitty first of all, I've been a lurker for over 20 years...you are absolutely hilarious and astute with your analysis.... I feel like I've watched 6,588 of your post before...
thanks, man, i appreciate it!

ewa beach? ever make your way into honolulu and eat breakfast at Goofy Cafe?
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
New Mexico Bowl

well, the huge question mark in this one... will ben wooldridge play? supposedly, he will. who knows how healthy or how rusty he'll be? he's finishing up an injury-plagued career. in fact, the last two seasons, he missed ULL's bowl game, so this would be his first.

if wooldridge can't go, or gets knocked out of this one, his backup (Fields) was knocked out of the Sunbelt championship game and it sounds like he's unavailable for this game (as usual, it's way too fucking hard to get accurate injury info, as one article i read said he's probably starting this game. but everything else indicated he's out.) so that leaves freshman daniel beale. beale had to come into that game when Fields was knocked out, and he was overwhelmed. he completed 9 of 24 for 95 yards with an INT.

i'm going with the assumption that wooldridge is playing and, hopefully, finishing the game.

other than that huge uncertainty, i like ULL in this game. and, yes, i know they are no longer "ULL". fuck you. they will always be ULL to me. i'm no believer in TCU. they beat one bowl team all year (texas tech, at home, by 1. that's the game hammond came in for tech and fumbled on what likely would have been the game-winning drive.) ULL was a perfect 6-0 SU away from home this year, and 5-1 ATS. i used to put a lot of emphasis on away games when i handicapped bowl games, but not much recently. but 6-0 on the road is impressive.

ULL (+10) 2X
ULL (ML) 1 to win 3

too much uncertainly around wooldridge's health to bet any more than that. if he's playing and looks good early, i may add some live.

that's it for tonight. last i heard, we had some shitty weather rolling in tonight. hopefully we still have power in the AM!
 

EwaBrownsbacker

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 15, 2014
134
40
28
Ewa Beach, HI
thanks, man, i appreciate it!

ewa beach? ever make your way into honolulu and eat breakfast at Goofy Cafe?
Did not but grinded my ass off... Was there from 2002 to 2020, retired USAF... Retired VA 10 yes...Had primo corner lot where the neighbors always bbq'd at my house with other festivities taking place...aloha, Mele Kalikimaka & Happy New Year..
 
  • Like
Reactions: Smitty

rocky mountain

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 24, 2005
6,844
1,343
113
gonna start with a brief (i hope) chat about motivation for a football game. obviously it's a huge topic, and rightfully so, during bowl season. but i feel like it's very misunderstood. just because a team isn't fired up to play a particular game doesn't mean they're not going to play hard on the field. with some exceptions, mostly at the NFL level, guys play hard. you gotta. you don't, and you're gonna get hurt. because the guy trying to knock you on your ass doesn't care how motivated you are.

where the lack of motivation shows up is in practice and film study. if you're not interested in the upcoming game, you may not be paying full attention during the week. where that manifests itself in the game is things like turnovers and penalties. and stuff that will show up when you watch film of that game. maybe a missed block or a missed assignment on defense that led to a big play.

this concludes smitty's discussion on motivation.

Fenway Bowl

ah, the annual "yankee stadium got a bowl game, so we wanted one" game. whoop-de-friggin-do.

talk about a huge motivational edge. UNC started the season with such promise, winning on the road at minnesota. then, after beating a couple of scrubs, they gave up 70 (SEVENTY!!) at home to JMU. that started a 4-game losing streak. they bounced back with 3 straight wins to become bowl-eligible, then promptly lost their last 2, to BC and NC St. the shitshow led to mack brown getting fired. and imagine the distraction that followed when they hired some washed up NFL coach who was so bad that the patriots(!) fired him. AND... he's dating a chick a lot of them want to fuck. do you really think they're focused on the uconn huskies?

ok, the obvious... it's a bowl game for uconn!! joe fagnano (or joey fags, as nobody except smitty calls him) had a solid year, averaging 8.1 yards/att with 18 TDs and only 4 INTs. and they have two very good RBs in robinson (6.8/carry) and edwards (5.9). edwards really came on late in the season. his last 4 games, he had 50 carries for 399 yards (8 yards/carry, for the mathematically-disinclined).

very important stat... uconn was 1-0 in massachusetts this year, while UNC was 0-1. they lost at boston college 11/23 and, for their troubles, get to come right back to beantown.

ok, one more note in regards to motivation... they're expecting game-time weather to be 36 degrees and rain. talk about miserable. so you are UNC... finishing up a crap season... some teams get to go south, but you gotta play in THAT weather. i can personally attest to how much that sucks. back in my playing days, we finished our season at Assumption (middle of massachusetts). we entered the game at 1-7. it was in the low 40s and rained the entire game. now, i hope the field at fenway is better than that field we played on. it was so muddy, that if you got into a 3-point stance in some spots, your hand sunk right through to the concrete or whatever the hell was underneath that field. anyway, late in the game, it was so bad that us benchwarmers were hoping we DIDN'T get put into the game. we were just trying to find spots on the sideline where we wouldn't sink into the mud. sure enough, last possession of the game, they put in ol' smitty. great. 3 plays, absolutely soaked, for nothing. since it was the last game, most guys just left their socks and jocks in the locker room after the game. felt kinda bad for whoever had to clean that up.

oh, right, uconn.

uconn (ML) 5 to win 6
Being a sports enthusiast and former athlete found the motivation comments very interesting !
 

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Pop-Tarts Bowl

gonna keep this short and sweet (hahaha short and sweet. see what i did there? just like a pop-tart!). i'm betting against miami. that's it. i've been very anti-miami all season. they were hilariously overrated. they haven't played a ranked team all season. they managed to avoid clemson and SMU in the ACC. i'm sure all season they thought they were a shoo-in for the playoffs. and now they find themselves a couple hundred miles north of campus, playing iowa st in the pop-tarts bowl.

iowa st ain't great, but they have 2 soon-to-be NFL receivers and an ok qb. i expect them to light up an uninterested miami team.

miami's biggest advantage in this game? it's gonna be about 80 degrees at kickoff. iowa st may wear down. so i'm going heavier in the first half.

iowa st (+4) 4X
iowa st (ML) 2 to win 3
Iowa St TT Over (27.5) 2.4 to win 2 (TTs have been KILLING me in the bowls, so a fade is probably smart)
iowa st 1H (ML) 5 to win 6.5
 
  • Love
Reactions: rocky mountain

ejthree

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2006
4,728
492
83
Pop-Tarts Bowl

gonna keep this short and sweet (hahaha short and sweet. see what i did there? just like a pop-tart!). i'm betting against miami. that's it. i've been very anti-miami all season. they were hilariously overrated. they haven't played a ranked team all season. they managed to avoid clemson and SMU in the ACC. i'm sure all season they thought they were a shoo-in for the playoffs. and now they find themselves a couple hundred miles north of campus, playing iowa st in the pop-tarts bowl.

iowa st ain't great, but they have 2 soon-to-be NFL receivers and an ok qb. i expect them to light up an uninterested miami team.

miami's biggest advantage in this game? it's gonna be about 80 degrees at kickoff. iowa st may wear down. so i'm going heavier in the first half.

iowa st (+4) 4X
iowa st (ML) 2 to win 3
Iowa St TT Over (27.5) 2.4 to win 2 (TTs have been KILLING me in the bowls, so a fade is probably smart)
iowa st 1H (ML) 5 to win 6.5
As always a solid write up and hope you are correct on total, my largest play of bowls...
GL Smitty...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Arizona Bowl

first, let's address the elephant in the room. some here were very offended by snoop dogg's presence at the olympics. i can only assume that they are also boycotting this bowl game. i... i just hope snoop will be ok.

alright, who's missing?

miami is without their starting LT, top 2 receivers, and best CB. colorado st is missing their leading tackler, a starting DE, and a starting WR (who only had 21 catches, but he averaged 20.8/catch. not too shabby.).

miami wins with defense. they gave up 4.6 yards/play, which is 11th in the country. however, that number rises to 5.2 away from home. their offensive yards/play also dip .6 away from home. this is a team that is much better at home. colorado st, on the other hand, posted very similar #s home and away.

chuck martin (miami coach) is 1-4 in bowl games. jay norvell is 2-1, including a perfect 1-0 record in... the arizona bowl!!

it will be interesting to see how miami does. on one hand, i'm sure they're disappointed they didn't win the MAC championship. on the other hand, they didn't have to go back to detroit for their bowl game.

i kinda like the rams. and, well, the MAC is the MAC.

colorado st (ML) 3 to win 3.3
colorado st 1H +.5 2X
1H under (20.5) 2.1 to win 2
 
  • Like
Reactions: rocky mountain

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Military Bowl

ECU is missing their 2nd-leading receiver (sowell), their 2nd-leading tackler (barker), and maybe their best remaining CB (brown-murray). winston wright jr is also out. he led the team in receptions and is an all-america kick returner.

NC St is missing KC Concepcion, who was their leading receiver after a huge freshman year last year.

rain is expected most of the game. it's a turf field.

at least from ECU's perspective, this is a rivalry game. i don't think they'll be short on motivation.

NC St's defense was 84th in the country, allowing 5.6 yards/play. and away from home, they give up 6.5.

sophomore katin houser took over as ECU's signal caller in october. while he's been better than garcia, he threw 9 INTs in his 7 starts. he does average 8.6 yards/att, and he still has anthony smith to throw to who averaged 20.2 yards/catch.

i think there's going to be a lot of points in this one, and i like ECU to be able to keep up with NC St.

ECU (+7.5) 2X
ECU (ML) 1 to win 2.3
Over (60.5) 2X
ECU 1H (+3.5) 2 to win 2
 
  • Like
Reactions: ripken8

ripken8

yankee hater
Forum Member
Jul 1, 2004
4,071
87
48
66
NY
Military Bowl

ECU is missing their 2nd-leading receiver (sowell), their 2nd-leading tackler (barker), and maybe their best remaining CB (brown-murray). winston wright jr is also out. he led the team in receptions and is an all-america kick returner.

NC St is missing KC Concepcion, who was their leading receiver after a huge freshman year last year.

rain is expected most of the game. it's a turf field.

at least from ECU's perspective, this is a rivalry game. i don't think they'll be short on motivation.

NC St's defense was 84th in the country, allowing 5.6 yards/play. and away from home, they give up 6.5.

sophomore katin houser took over as ECU's signal caller in october. while he's been better than garcia, he threw 9 INTs in his 7 starts. he does average 8.6 yards/att, and he still has anthony smith to throw to who averaged 20.2 yards/catch.

i think there's going to be a lot of points in this one, and i like ECU to be able to keep up with NC St.

ECU (+7.5) 2X
ECU (ML) 1 to win 2.3
Over (60.5) 2X
ECU 1H (+3.5) 2 to win 2
thanks for the time you spend with these write-ups Smitty, really appreciate them…
 
  • Like
Reactions: Slumdog and cole

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
Alamo Bowl

my last bowl of the day, as i can't bet the Army game.

this is an easy one for me. i can't stand all the nonsense around colorado. i have zero respect for sanders after what he did to the kids on scholarship when he took the job. even if i thought colorado would win by 50, i couldn't bet on them.

good thing i expect BYU to win.

BYU isn't great, but they may be the best team colorado has faced all year. and all the hype all week has been about sanders and hunter playing for colorado. BYU's only losses were in back-to-back weeks against red-hot Kansas and Arizona St. i really like retzlaff for BYU.

one note on BYU, and i don't love it... they are dealing with too many OL injuries. from actionnetwork.com...
Starting RT Brady Keim missed the last three games and his backup, Isaiah Jatta, was also out in the finale, so they moved LG Weylin Lepuaho to RT. With Jatta and Keim not listed on the depth chart, it will be Lepuaho at RT once again.

Starting RG Austin Leausa was also out, but is on depth chart listed as the starting LG with Bruce Mitchell at RG since Connor Pay did recently come back from injury at center.


BYU (ML) 6 to win 8.4
 
  • Wow
Reactions: Slumdog

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,788
1,609
113
Upstate NY
thanks for the time you spend with these write-ups Smitty, really appreciate them…
i'm glad to do it. it's a good way for me to organize my thoughts on these games. and if they help the MJ community, even better.

hopefully ULL is my worst pick today. yikes. i watched the first drive from both teams (wooldridge completely didn't see a wide open receiver right in front of him for an easy first down just before they punted), but have been following the score online since. ouch.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ejthree

ejthree

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2006
4,728
492
83
Alamo Bowl

my last bowl of the day, as i can't bet the Army game.

this is an easy one for me. i can't stand all the nonsense around colorado. i have zero respect for sanders after what he did to the kids on scholarship when he took the job. even if i thought colorado would win by 50, i couldn't bet on them.

good thing i expect BYU to win.

BYU isn't great, but they may be the best team colorado has faced all year. and all the hype all week has been about sanders and hunter playing for colorado. BYU's only losses were in back-to-back weeks against red-hot Kansas and Arizona St. i really like retzlaff for BYU.

one note on BYU, and i don't love it... they are dealing with too many OL injuries. from actionnetwork.com...
Starting RT Brady Keim missed the last three games and his backup, Isaiah Jatta, was also out in the finale, so they moved LG Weylin Lepuaho to RT. With Jatta and Keim not listed on the depth chart, it will be Lepuaho at RT once again.

Starting RG Austin Leausa was also out, but is on depth chart listed as the starting LG with Bruce Mitchell at RG since Connor Pay did recently come back from injury at center.


BYU (ML) 6 to win 8.4
This another play my friends like...
GL Smitty...
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top