12/5 Plays

[Vig]

I love country cup plays. Plenty thanks to Kid for that angle, and I think I have a good feel for them. Filtering through tomorrow's matches, I think I've found something in Spain.


Mallorca +.5 +120 @ Real Valladolid (2 units)


A basic look at this game is thus: RV graduated to this year's La Liga season from Liga 2. They are in horrible form at the moment, last in La Liga. Meanwhile, Mallorca is having a good season in Liga 2, and they are playing very nicely at the moment. Oddsmakers have RV at -150 to win this game. Way too high. Yes, sometimes high lines are the play, but I see this game as more of pick, maybe RV pk -120 and Mallorca pk -105. Therefore, I love getting a half goal here, so I'm running with it. GL


Maybe more as I poke around

 

[Vig]

Line is silly in Turkish Cup game at 1230 EST. Basaksehir is only -125 when they should be at least -1.5 against a league one team. No goal line posted yet, but I'll be looking for the +.5. My guess is oddsmakers already have a feel that Basaksehir will be playing a lineup of youngins

 

[Vig]

I've followed Norwegian soccer more than is normal sadly. I think the road dog striving for the top league is the play

12:00 PM EST / Norway

Aalesunds FK +.5 -105 @ Stabaek (1 unit)

 

[Vig]

Line is silly in Turkish Cup game at 1230 EST. Basaksehir is only -125 when they should be at least -1.5 against a league one team. No goal line posted yet, but I'll be looking for the +.5. My guess is oddsmakers already have a feel that Basaksehir will be playing a lineup of youngins

Line is back up for this game. I'm still surprised at how cheap the Super Lig leaders can be had here. Rare is the instance where a sub level team can beat the top league leader, however history shows that the best teams use these cup games as resting opportunities over and over.

Adana Demirspor +.5 - ev (1 unit)

Draw +255 Basaksehir @ Adana Demirspor (half unit)

 

[Vig]

Belgian Cup

Charleroi +.5 -150 vs Genk (1 unit)

 

[Vig]

Late goal (88') in Mallorca was a reversal of fortune. A younger me would have smashed something over that, but instead just said 10 f yous and moved on. I thought the Belgian game was a solid take as well, Genk getting value in both back to back away games. -2.27 units today, 2-3. Sorry to anyone tailing, I know these games are plug and play for most.


Dec: 11-7 +6.86 units