12 investments (errors) to avoid

selkirk

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here are some items when investing you should avoid, and a few common mistakes that are done...

1. Double/Triple leveraged etfs There are double and triple etfs that trade on the market that will give you 2X and 3X.

plenty wrong with these, tracking error, also the costs are very high, and if your investment goes sideways or down you lose money, even if it goes up a small amount over time you lose. avoid, if you do play these it is called a few days, or a week, maybe two...seen many people hold these for months/year and lose large amounts....avoid.

2. 2nd mortgage loans, large margin account to invest in the market.

often people will (especially in bull markets) (well always that I know of) want to get in, so they go from a small amount invested to all in, they do not start with a small amount on margin, and consider the downside.

in a perfect world the markets return 10% and they pocket the difference of the interest charged on the loan, that is what they are told.

if you use margin investing start off very slowly, and leave your house out of it....

3. Dollar cost averaging down (marrying stocks)

people will dollar cost down on money losing stocks. I know people that will lose 50% on a stock and will state how happy they are because now they can buy more. its on sale.

the problem is despite maybe bad news, and poor performance they will never sell, just consider buying more of this "great stock".

money should only be committed to stocks/investments that show a profit....remember that old rule, still true.

4. Dividend traps (stocks not rising divdends)

many people will buy a stock because it has a high dividend, however the stock that raises its dividend on a consistant basis is a better investment.

ie. a company that pays 3%, that raises its dividend over time is a better investment than a 5% dividend that is not raise over time.

so when buying dividend stocks, look for a company that is growing revenue, earnings, and dividends. rather than a company that has flat growth and dividends.

5. Wrap accounts (avoid)
wether it is fund of funds, a collection of mutual/hedge funds, or the wrap accounts (all the same) a collection of funds that for the most part
that charge higher fees the normal. They are designed to make the investment company and managers rich, and the investor poor, underperforming investments.

6. prepetual preferreds
these are popular in Canada, many have no expiry date, so think of them as long long term bonds.
they give investors .75-1.25% more interest than they can get on a preferred 5-10 years.

since I have been saying how bad these are or dangerouse they have risen 10%, if you are happy with the returns long term that is fine.

however does not take much in the way of interest rate hikes for these to drop quickly.
avoid, I know have heard recently interest rates will stay low and inflation is dead....however time has a way of changing predictions.

7. All Star ManagersCEOs
Horizons AlphaPro Gartman ETF (HAG)
is a great example issued on 3/26/2009 mer .75 with a 20% performance fee, not that this matters at this point.

so you buy an etf at the best possible time for resources, I mean buy the toronto index, or any number of resource stocks or indexes this is almost the bottom.

so for your $10 it is now worth 9.47 a few years later. you have not made anything on your investment, that is almost impossible considering the run resources have been on....

the same with CEOs, look at Cisco, sure the CEO is well known but what has he done with your investment over 10 years, have no worris all star under performing ceos, always pay themselves, and their poor managment teams well.

no you should not avoid all star managers or ceos, just 90% of them.

8. Paid research (Newsletters that get pay to endorse stocks) buy research on big cap stocks.

was reading an article well written and at the end it stated that the firm is paid for suggesting certain stocks. the only problem is was not told which stocks were paid for, and how much.

also large brokerage firms will keep a buy on underperforming large caps, ie. look at the buy reprots on Cisco, and see how many are buys compared to sell, over ten years. an analyst on wall street does not last long if they put a sell on a large blue chip stock.

so still read the research just do not care so much about the buy/sell/hold (which in most cases is a sell)


thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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9. GIC/CD tied to the market.

95% of these are poor investments. they cap returns (usually 10% per year), average the gains over time, which limits the upside.

so you do not lose however often if the market does have a good run you get limited and far lower on the return. better just to invest a certain amount in the market and the rest in cash short term liquid investments.

10. Rushing to make an investment
this is similar to people who put a second mortgage on the house or put all of the money in the market at once.

I have had many times where someone is investing money in an RRSP TFSA or just general investments, and they phone me, because they want to invest large amounts of money today.

when you meet with your broker, banker, you can always do your own research and come back in a week or two, that is just fine....I know people who take more time ordering lunch that picking out investments.

11. To Many stocks/mutual funds etfs
I remember in 1999 someone called me, she wanted to know what to invest in, she knew plenty about the market, the only problem she had around 74 mutual funds, give or take.

every time a GIC /CD came due, she would buy another mutual fund for a small amount. there is no way you can track that many funds, you will just underperform the overall index.


if you cannot name / list your main investments then you have to many.

12. No plan when making an investment.

wether you trade on a regular basis or long term buy and hold it is still the same.

you should have a stop in mind, think through the trade, bad and the good.

I know many people who take gains of a few hundred on a stock, however would let a stock fall almost to zero before selling the stock.

so have a plan when making an investment/or trade. and stick to it....

thanks
selkirk
 

Kid Bro Sweets

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Great read as usual. It's a good note on the analysis recommendations and how it's usually always buy or hold not too many sells.

I don't want to make a new thread but I was curious on your take on Potash, As a long term hold i can't see how this one really goes wrong unless people stop eating food.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Was good read as always--I'd like to add another if you don't mind. I have managed to avert most above--but one I always have tough time with is--selling a stock in period-- whether it be for loss or gain.

If not for setting stops--I doubt I'd have 5% turnover a year.
 

selkirk

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KBS I like the fertilizer stocks and believe they are good investments, my only warning is they are very volatile, and in the short term trade off factors not in their control.

POT earnings per share 2010 5.95, 2011 9.50-9.80
2012 11.30-12
div .84 and should rise very slowly
$58.87 cdn. $60 US

AGU earnings per share 2010 4.63 2011 6.50-7 2012 7.40 7.80
$92.69 cdn $94.50 US

could have added mosaic and CF, the whole industry should perform well, of coarse potash pot is the best way to play potash.

my biggest postion is agu, simply becasue they are building up the retail chain, when a farmer buy fertiler in the US and Canada, and now in New Zealand, chance are they buying from AGU.

potash should do very well, long reserves and production should double in about 5 year- 7 years.

as prices stay strong and more production will come on, but will be hard to keep up with demand.
though I believe fertilzer prices will be strong one must remember they will not go up all the time, at certain prices farmer will buy less or put off buying.

so going forward earnings should continue to go higher. and share prices should follow.

one /two major risks : Russia had a fire that damaged much of the wheat crop, they became a importer instead of an exporter.

in the short term these stocks trade on wheat, corn. one day corn shot up and AGU went from 68 cdn. to around 72., they followed wheat and corn higher.

the Austraila floods, and now there is a drought in China, no one knows how this will effect the crop.

also in Canada and the US time will tell how good the crop is, good or bad....if prices go down chance are so does fertilzer stocks, if they go higher, yes they go higher.

would rate the stocks fully valued in the short term, but they are performing well in this bullish market, so would buy into a position.

would slowly build up the position you want over time, it okay to start to now.

sometimes my timing sucks, so would slowly build a position.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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DTB sometimes people do not sell enough or sell to often.

I have some stocks trade around but have had core postions for a long time, though they have to perform, and if they have a huge run try to sell some off once they start to correct....does not always work...lol....

many stocks I buy appear to be in a trading range, for instance TRP I own long positon and with some options ect...

though a year ago, maybe more trp would hit 34.50 cdn. and hit 36 and back down again, it only did this 3-5 times but was good to see it in a range.

currently AX.un artis reit bought at 13.20 sold 13.60,
last week 13.30 tried getting it cheaper, sold 13.60 the week after.

this reit yield 8% so I get keep it not bad either, for the yield, if it broke down would dump it..., should note my maret timing skills are brutal, in the first trade, it hit 13.68 10 min after I sold it.

the day later believe topped out 13.78 before going back down. someday my timing will iimprove..lol.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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13. NEVER NEVER buy a closed end fund ipo...NEVER

a few days ago got a notice of a closed end high yield fund ipo on Toronto.

most funds you buy are open end mutual funds, these funds have unlimited number of units they can issue at net asset value.

a closed end fund for the most part trades on the stock exchange, and has a fixed number of units.
I own two closed end funds but would never buy an ipo of one...here is why,

a) the ipo costs are charged to the purchasers of the IPO so you give them $10 and your fund is worth around $9.50 (5% average 3-6% costs of the ipo). there is no reason to give someone $10 when it is only worth $9.50.

b) closed end funds trade at a discount or premium and in most cases a disount. give the fund 6 months - 1 year to see what kind of discount of premium it trades at...and how wide the ranges are...one fund I own in the 90s traded at a 38% discount to the market and then back to a 28% discount...currently the discount is less than 15%.

c) many of these closed end IPO are sold when they are in favour, and people like them, a great time to buy high yield debt was late 2008/2009, currently have high yield debt, would be your average position, hold.

sometimes a hot manager, or sector. probably should see how the fund does and maybe buy it when there is less interest.

d) give it time to see the volume, sometimes these funds volume dries up, and are hard to trade...

so in general wait....now off to a trip, to the big LV, leaving the snow and going to the desert....we should have a good time. averaging a vacation every 18 months...so not bad.

thanks
selkirk
 
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