#12 UConn @ WVU

[moeclarrett]

I don't know what to think of this game. Everyone and their mother is on Uconn (approx. 73% consensus), and yet I'm seeing the line has moved a full point down toward WVU (from +5 to +4). We've all seen this before and usually I love to see something like this when I'm leaning toward the dog.

I typically play home dogs vs. ranked in-conference road favs when the spread is less than 7 favoring the road team (system courtesy of a friend of mine), and all factors included directs me toward the Mountineers. I'm sure Volfan and Nickleback will be hitting WVU hard (and I'd love to hear from them too), but I'm curious what everyone else thinks about this game. Why is everyone on Uconn? Does this line movement concern anyone?

 

[moeclarrett]

for what is worth, I also like:

Tennessee +6.5 (goes along with the previous post)

KU -15.5

Wisko +1.5 or 2.0

 

[loophole]

i'm not sure kansas fits with the rest of those. sites i monitor show around 80% on the jayhawks.

 

[vyrus858]

what do you consider the best consensus site loop?

 

[moeclarrett]

Once the line hits -9 or higher on the road fav, I start hitting the road fav. From -7.5 to -8.5 I usually pass.

Its strictly a play on the line, not the consensus, but I do keep an eye on the consensus as well, as I tend to play a contrarian angle, and most of these system plays end up being contrarian plays as well because the public loves the ranked road favs.

But regarding the Uconn game, I'm not sold on either side, and am just looking for some input.

 

[Trizzle]

Moe, so I understand the sytem, you play the home dog catching 1 to 7, and road fav's laying 9 or more. How has the system done?

I never play a road favorite in a conference game so I am very curious.

 

[Master Capper]

I looked really long and hard about playing that UCONN game but the line movement has me puzzled. I have to wonder if UCONN will have a hangover from the collapse against Pitt and WVU has really faltered coming down the homestretch.

 

[loophole]

http://www.***********.com/events.asp?sport_id=2

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html

 

[moeclarrett]

This system was passed down to me by a close friend of mine.

The game has to have a ranked team on the road in confrence play. If so, there can also be a ranked home team also.

If the line is 7 or less, then I take the home team. Also if the home team is favored I have the home team regardless of the spread. (Like OU -1 yesterday, both teams were ranked)

If the line is road team favored by 7 1/2-8 1/2, there is no play. Typically, if the line starts at 7 1/2 or more even if it drops I don't play it.

If road team is favored by 9 or more, take the road team

As for the record...This year the system is + 1 (one) unit with a record of 30-29 (though saturday really hurt as it was at 28-22 but it went 0-7 which is very rare). Last night Rutgers and OU both hit. I'm not touting the system, I was just explaining my reasoning for why I'm on WVU and why I'm concerned about the play. It is a long term system and hits basically 55% of the time. I place the same unit on each play.

 

[Trizzle]

Thanks for your time Moe. GL!