very well put, bubba. at the very least, try to avoid going against such a strong trend. it is really a case for study, as the home dog is the weaker team, yet the game carries such importance due to many factors, that it makes the game in theory a pick'em, and in many cases, like yesterday, the visiting favorite is "stunned". yet the line has to be set according to performance and betting patterns.
i wanted to use this thread to bring up what i think is the most meaningful trend, or at least as important as this one:
a team's domination of another team. when all pieces remain the same (players, coaching, etc.) and a team has shown over and over it can beat the other one, going against it is trying to defy logic. there are recent exceptions, like the debacle with philly/giants.
the one recent example was n.o./st louis. i was "watching" it on stats and left in disgust when st louis was ahead 21-3 early in the second quarter. the rest is history. miami at jets, indy at n.e., etc.
today we face a similar situation with tenn's dominance over pitt, yet pitt is the favorite due to recent performance and home advantage, a turn around in the line of about 5-6 points. this game is not set in stone, but it does falls in that other strong trend category.
pep
