5-3, +4.5 units yesterday
I've been going pretty well lately, 18-8 +22.1 units since my week 3 blow-up.
If there's one thing I've learned, you've gotta let the winning ride itself out. Hit it hard when it's going good.
This game tonight is absolutely blowing my mind. SD hasn't played a good team since Den and KC in the first two weeks of the season. They beat a struggling Cle team - with QB woes like no other - last week, but that proves absolutely nothing, Cleveland doesn't have the defense, nor the rushing attack that Miami has. Now factor in the fact that they lose a home game because of an absolutely tragic event that's taking place in their hometown. This isn't a championship team. Championship teams rise to these types of challenges. SD, who deserves every bit of their 1-5 record, has obstacles to overcome like no-other.
Books aren't craving SD action, I don't think. To travel from Miami all the way to SD to play football implicates home field advantage factors. When SD lost that home field advantage, the lines adjusted accordingly. 6-6.5 is very reasonable and is where people felt the line should be at...
So why is this game blowing my mind?
Because I've seen everybody and their mother jump all over SD. I've seen people change their original picks and put tons of units on the 'Bolts. I don't understand it. There is no other reason than this is the NFL that SD should cover this game. None. They are overmatched in every aspect.
Miaimi's rush D is the best in the league - do you think Tomlinson's going to just run all over them?
SD, on the other hand, is giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Don't see that trend stopping against a Ricky Williams attack...
SD's also in the bottom five passing defenses - what better time to spark an offense than to have a change of QB against a poor passing team?
And while Miami may give up a lot of yards in the air, those yards don't hurt them nearly as bad. Miami's Defensive QB Rating Against: 69.1. SD's: 92.4.
I'll tell you how this game is going to go...
Miami's going to come out throwing. Big time. They're going to take it to SD. They'll be up by more than 2 TD's by half time. They're going to try to force SD to keep up with them, but SD doesn't have the fire power to do that and we all know what happens when they get behind and have to play catch up - they stop giving LT the ball. LT is going to have to carry the ball 32-37 times this game to give SD a shot, but he's not going to be able to do that because of time management.
This game will end up falling under one of Nolan's plays - the more than 15 at half, bet the under play. In the second half, Miami's going to be able to shove Ricky Williams down their throats - and guess what - SD's not going to be able to stop them.
Offensive and defensive lines - not even close. I hate Wannstedt - and that's about the only advantage SD has with Shottenheimer, and even that's arguable...
Let the winning ride out. My 3* early leans are 13-3 since week 3, not losing more than one game each of those weeks. This game fell on that 3* level, so I'm going to hit it hard and play it double. SD has nothing to play for...
Mia -6 for two 2* plays and one 1*, 5 total units
My biggest play year to date.
Go Phins!
I've been going pretty well lately, 18-8 +22.1 units since my week 3 blow-up.
If there's one thing I've learned, you've gotta let the winning ride itself out. Hit it hard when it's going good.
This game tonight is absolutely blowing my mind. SD hasn't played a good team since Den and KC in the first two weeks of the season. They beat a struggling Cle team - with QB woes like no other - last week, but that proves absolutely nothing, Cleveland doesn't have the defense, nor the rushing attack that Miami has. Now factor in the fact that they lose a home game because of an absolutely tragic event that's taking place in their hometown. This isn't a championship team. Championship teams rise to these types of challenges. SD, who deserves every bit of their 1-5 record, has obstacles to overcome like no-other.
Books aren't craving SD action, I don't think. To travel from Miami all the way to SD to play football implicates home field advantage factors. When SD lost that home field advantage, the lines adjusted accordingly. 6-6.5 is very reasonable and is where people felt the line should be at...
So why is this game blowing my mind?
Because I've seen everybody and their mother jump all over SD. I've seen people change their original picks and put tons of units on the 'Bolts. I don't understand it. There is no other reason than this is the NFL that SD should cover this game. None. They are overmatched in every aspect.
Miaimi's rush D is the best in the league - do you think Tomlinson's going to just run all over them?
SD, on the other hand, is giving up 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Don't see that trend stopping against a Ricky Williams attack...
SD's also in the bottom five passing defenses - what better time to spark an offense than to have a change of QB against a poor passing team?
And while Miami may give up a lot of yards in the air, those yards don't hurt them nearly as bad. Miami's Defensive QB Rating Against: 69.1. SD's: 92.4.
I'll tell you how this game is going to go...
Miami's going to come out throwing. Big time. They're going to take it to SD. They'll be up by more than 2 TD's by half time. They're going to try to force SD to keep up with them, but SD doesn't have the fire power to do that and we all know what happens when they get behind and have to play catch up - they stop giving LT the ball. LT is going to have to carry the ball 32-37 times this game to give SD a shot, but he's not going to be able to do that because of time management.
This game will end up falling under one of Nolan's plays - the more than 15 at half, bet the under play. In the second half, Miami's going to be able to shove Ricky Williams down their throats - and guess what - SD's not going to be able to stop them.
Offensive and defensive lines - not even close. I hate Wannstedt - and that's about the only advantage SD has with Shottenheimer, and even that's arguable...
Let the winning ride out. My 3* early leans are 13-3 since week 3, not losing more than one game each of those weeks. This game fell on that 3* level, so I'm going to hit it hard and play it double. SD has nothing to play for...
Mia -6 for two 2* plays and one 1*, 5 total units
My biggest play year to date.
Go Phins!
