As we discussed in our previous
NFL Preseason Betting Article, handicapping the NFL Preseason is much different than handicapping the NFL Regular season. With starters playing limited minutes and coaches using basic plays on both offense and defense, handicapping Preseason games cannot be done properly relying solely on stats and matchups.
Instead, we put a heavier emphasis on motivational factors ? seeking out teams that actually want to win these ?meaningless? games. Those teams that are expected to reach the playoffs and don?t have many battles for starting spots try to get out of the preseason without injuries. Peyton Manning?s Colts were a great example, putting up horrible win/loss records in the preseason but being one of the best teams when the regular season began.
It?s for that reason that teams coming off a losing record in the previous season tend to have better win/loss results the following preseason. There are many more battles for starting spots, which means the players trying to earn a starting nod are playing harder.
One thing we seek out is teams that bring in a new head coach. Often times, these new head coaches will want to install a new ?winning attitude? and actually care about the victory more than they let on which is why the
1Vice Double Odds Promo is the perfect bonus when taking in consideration new head coach in your betting equation.
This year, there are seven head coaches that are taking over, however we don?t include Denver head coach Gary Kubiak in this ?play-on? betting system, as his Broncos roster is pretty much set and we don?t like the history of Peyton Manning-led teams in August.
The other six teams to keep an eye out for are Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, NY Jets, Oakland, and San Francisco. Atlanta and San Francisco are particularly interesting, as they have a solid core of talent but performed well below expectations last season. Atlanta?s woes had much to do with injuries, but San Francisco was a complete mess and Jim Harbaugh left to take over Michigan.
Remember, the online sportsbooks rarely have teams favored by more than 3 or 4 points in the first two weeks of the preseason, so if we can identify a team that cares about winning going up against a team that doesn?t, we have a great opportunity to turn a profit.
