2/1 nba
- Thread starter longhaul
- Start date
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
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Are you buying points on all your plays? Do you find that this strategy pays off in the long run?
This season if a team covers the spread, 81% of the time they cover by more than two points. If you are paying average of -120 juice, you would have to be hitting over 54.5% so far on the season to be at the break even point, versus 52.38% with -110 juice. With those lines, I imagine you are paying over -120.
Just wondering if you find it profitable. I actually just switched books to get reduced juice.
Good luck...
This season if a team covers the spread, 81% of the time they cover by more than two points. If you are paying average of -120 juice, you would have to be hitting over 54.5% so far on the season to be at the break even point, versus 52.38% with -110 juice. With those lines, I imagine you are paying over -120.
Just wondering if you find it profitable. I actually just switched books to get reduced juice.
Good luck...
Hello. Hope all is good with you. First off i have to say i love bukowski. Very apt quote selection. Love it. You are correct. When laying a lot of vig you need to win a greater percentage of your games. I realize a majority of people will not agree with how i wager .But I have been doing this a long time and i have made my friends a believer over the years in buying 1 to 1.5 points a game in hoops.Alwas end up in the plus side by
seasons end. Last 3 years have been exceptional, and although this year started tremendously(early stuff not posted here),it has dropped off a bit. But the key for me was doing reasearch and looking back at the end of every season and seeing how many games that were bet and ended up pushing or losing but came within a point or 2 of the closing line. The numbers are staggering. A very good book i know who also bets and does well always buys 2 a game. I pay between 130-140 a game buying points, with the average being about 140. Sounds steep but have always ended up winning. Last 3 seasons were between 65 -68% by seasons end. Without buying points the percentage would still be good but nowhere near that high.
seasons end. Last 3 years have been exceptional, and although this year started tremendously(early stuff not posted here),it has dropped off a bit. But the key for me was doing reasearch and looking back at the end of every season and seeing how many games that were bet and ended up pushing or losing but came within a point or 2 of the closing line. The numbers are staggering. A very good book i know who also bets and does well always buys 2 a game. I pay between 130-140 a game buying points, with the average being about 140. Sounds steep but have always ended up winning. Last 3 seasons were between 65 -68% by seasons end. Without buying points the percentage would still be good but nowhere near that high.
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
Wow, 65-68% in the last three season - that is certainly a stellar achievement. What is your percentage in posted plays on here so far this year?
Good luck - Bukowski is one of the best
:toast:
Good luck - Bukowski is one of the best
:toast:
Not great. As i said it started great and then dipped. Dont always post everything i play depending on whats going on but its not like it has been the last few years. Mean inversion. But on a good run recently.
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
Well, looks like you had a great night tonight. I am still going to subscribe to the "lower juice the better" club, but good luck with your philosophy.
:toast:
:toast:
