Time to change things up..... It's Conf Tournament Week, which means you have to factor in a few different variations on your handicapping, and adjust your numbers to reflect "Neutral Site" and psychology of the teams that have been playing all year to get to this week and achieving their goals to buy a ticket to the dance. Most experienced handicappers understand that mentality and while each team is different, the pressure can be quite overwhelming for teams that on the bubble, or needing a couple of wins to punch that at large bid.
I was placing my bets today, and talked to this kid that I see almost every day at the sportsbook. He likes to head to the Caesars kiosk and claims he has ADHD which is actually fairly funny as he is betting multiple plays in a variety of ways. Parlays, Teasars, Super Teasers, Round Robin's, etc. I usually see him punching out different numbers in a frenetic fashion. We chatted a bit about what he was on today...... His best play was the Over in the Oral Roberts/No Dakota St Over 150'........I didn't tell him that one of my strongest totals was betting the Under in that particular game. I was looking at his number sheet, and pointed out to him that the neutral site means that both rims are foreign and you can't treat it like a regular season game. I showed him some discrepancies and showed him that he needs to go back and find games that went to OT and take those extra points off his sheet. He said he never thought about that. I told him that I always subtract -3 points for the neutral site alone.
I cleaned up last night betting the first half under in the Oral Roberts game and 2nd half under.... The total posted was way too many points considering some of these factors. The oddsmakers know this but also know that the Summit League is basically a league that plays up tempo and little D. The number posted last night was far too MUCH and my hypothesis paid off.
Anyway, I'm certainly not saying that I've found the holy grail to Conf Tournaments. It just means that some of these factors are what I implement in my capping. Maybe a newbie to the profession is just starting out and doesn't have a clue how to approach it......
Onward...
Wright St/Cleveland St Under 147......10 u 💪 💪 💪 * I bet this as soon as the number posted. It's my strongest play today. Number has come down a point or two, but still great value. My number is 135.
Furman +2'......10 u 💪 💪 💪 * Chattanooga swept the regular season, but Furman is a great team and think they win outright. ML is a great bet here. Strongest Side
*I like the Over in this game, too. Both teams are capable of going off and my number is 142
Lafayette/Georgia St Under 132'.....10 u 💪 💪 * my number is 125
Lafayette +3'......10 u 💪 * I like Lafayette to win this game. Georgia St swept regular season by 4 & 7....think the added points is a bonus.
COC -2..... 10 u 💪 💪 * Read the tea leaves. Question is why is Charleston favored to a team they lost both games to in regular season?? Yeah, me neither.
San Francisco +13.....10 u 💪 💪 * I will gladly take the points here. Yes, Zags are very good and probably will get a #1 seed but St Mary's found the kryptonite, and I expect San Francisco to follow suit. Zags last few games have cooled down some and SF lost both regular season games by 16 so hopefully +13 is very doable.
Gluck to all and will see you tomorrow
**f I also bet the Under 154....my # is 149 and as I just explained, SF should understand that a track meet means Zags will blow them out.
I was placing my bets today, and talked to this kid that I see almost every day at the sportsbook. He likes to head to the Caesars kiosk and claims he has ADHD which is actually fairly funny as he is betting multiple plays in a variety of ways. Parlays, Teasars, Super Teasers, Round Robin's, etc. I usually see him punching out different numbers in a frenetic fashion. We chatted a bit about what he was on today...... His best play was the Over in the Oral Roberts/No Dakota St Over 150'........I didn't tell him that one of my strongest totals was betting the Under in that particular game. I was looking at his number sheet, and pointed out to him that the neutral site means that both rims are foreign and you can't treat it like a regular season game. I showed him some discrepancies and showed him that he needs to go back and find games that went to OT and take those extra points off his sheet. He said he never thought about that. I told him that I always subtract -3 points for the neutral site alone.
I cleaned up last night betting the first half under in the Oral Roberts game and 2nd half under.... The total posted was way too many points considering some of these factors. The oddsmakers know this but also know that the Summit League is basically a league that plays up tempo and little D. The number posted last night was far too MUCH and my hypothesis paid off.
Anyway, I'm certainly not saying that I've found the holy grail to Conf Tournaments. It just means that some of these factors are what I implement in my capping. Maybe a newbie to the profession is just starting out and doesn't have a clue how to approach it......
Onward...
Wright St/Cleveland St Under 147......10 u 💪 💪 💪 * I bet this as soon as the number posted. It's my strongest play today. Number has come down a point or two, but still great value. My number is 135.
Furman +2'......10 u 💪 💪 💪 * Chattanooga swept the regular season, but Furman is a great team and think they win outright. ML is a great bet here. Strongest Side
*I like the Over in this game, too. Both teams are capable of going off and my number is 142
Lafayette/Georgia St Under 132'.....10 u 💪 💪 * my number is 125
Lafayette +3'......10 u 💪 * I like Lafayette to win this game. Georgia St swept regular season by 4 & 7....think the added points is a bonus.
COC -2..... 10 u 💪 💪 * Read the tea leaves. Question is why is Charleston favored to a team they lost both games to in regular season?? Yeah, me neither.
San Francisco +13.....10 u 💪 💪 * I will gladly take the points here. Yes, Zags are very good and probably will get a #1 seed but St Mary's found the kryptonite, and I expect San Francisco to follow suit. Zags last few games have cooled down some and SF lost both regular season games by 16 so hopefully +13 is very doable.
Gluck to all and will see you tomorrow
**f I also bet the Under 154....my # is 149 and as I just explained, SF should understand that a track meet means Zags will blow them out.
