2 best bets

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Sep 24, 2002
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I've upgraded the Boise State game to my best bet of the week over SDSU. SDSU is still an awesome pick, but Boise will role.

Boise State appears to be back to its old ways after blowing up Idaho State last week 62-0. The Broncos are going for the Spud Sweep against a Vandal team that's still trying to generate some offense, and are coming off a brutal 8-5 loss to Eastern Washington (Who the **** is Eastern Washington?).

So far Idaho is averaging 2.5 points per game whether they're needed or not only scoring five points in the first two games of the year. Boise State could double that point total after five minutes of this one.

Stat Fox gives Boise a star power rating for this match up.

The last 3 yrs ATS Boise ...
as a favorite 15-5
in all games 18-7
in games played on turf 14-5

Since '92, ATS Boise ...
as a favorite 26-10
in all games 38-16
in games played on turf 22-9
when playing on a Saturday 33-16

All games in this series since 1992:
BOISE ST is 4-1 against the spread versus IDAHO since 1992
BOISE ST is 4-1 straight up against IDAHO since 1992

Games over the last 3 seasons:
IDAHO is 1-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

All games played at IDAHO since 1992:
BOISE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IDAHO since 1992
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO since 1992

Games played at IDAHO over the last 3 seasons:
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

You can't win if you don't score. Idaho won't do either. If Boise State is going to hang with Oregon State next week, it needs some go-to receivers to scare the Beaver secondary. Tony McPherson and Jerry Smith each showed big playmaking ability against Idaho State, and now they have to use this game to get even more in sync with Ryan Dinwiddie.



Watch the SDSU line, it may go down. Their top passer is out, but I still think they'll cover.

UTEP ATS the last 3 yrs ...
as an underdog is 5-16
as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points 1-6
in all games 5-17
in non-conference games 0-6
in September games 1-6
when playing on a Saturday 5-17
when playing with 6 or less days rest 4-13

San Diego State had one of its brightest shining moments of the last few years last week when it pushed defending national champion Ohio State to the brink of defeat. The Aztecs didn't win, but the defense was amazing keeping the Buckeye offense out of the end zone. UTEP lost to Cal Poly 34-13. 'Nuff said.
After playing in Columbus, the Sun Bowl will hardly seem daunting. If UTEP's offense can't get going against Arizona and Cal Poly, what chance does it have against a D that Ohio State couldn't solve? With Adam Hall still out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Dlugolecki will continue to lead the Aztec offense. He's made rookie mistakes, but he also shows great promise with a few flashes of talent. SDSU running back Lynell Hamilton appears to be on the verge of exploding against someone. UTEP might be ripe.

Although UTEP is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST since 1992, SAN DIEGO ST is 3-0 straight up in those games.

Unless UTEP has unearthed something magical on offense, the Aztecs will win in a walk. My game of the week! SDSU -18.5
 
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