2 for saturday

[pepin46]

houston at pitt
oswalt vs. arroyo

despite the big difference in era between these 2, their last 2 games, for each one, has produced 10 and 11 runs for an era for each of around 10.

arroyo is pretty bad without question, but with a question mark surrounding oswalt's arm at the moment, a +165 for the home team is a chance i will take.

k.c. at oakland
durbin vs. hudson

hudson is without question one of the premier pitchers in the league, and not much more can be added to that.

someone on this board picked against seles at home the last time out at -250 or so, and said something like: there is no justification to play against seles except that this just looks too comfortable. right he was. i noticed a similar situation with schilling his last time out at home but could not pull the trigger, and bingo, it happened again.

hopefully it is not too late for a third one. there are good reasons for a potential upset here:

durbin's 2 next to last games were his best of the year, going 8 innings in each and allowing no runs. on his last outing he got tagged with a 3 run homer and that was the game, as he was matched against, you guessed it, hudson.

another plus for durbin is that he did win a nice game against oak earlier in the year, going 7 innings and allowing 4 hits and 1 earned run.

give me +230, please!


pep

 

[redsfann]

Pep--

Like both of these, as well as Under 9.5 in the 1st game of the Houston/Pirates DH.

good luck to us both..

 

[pepin46]

reds

you mean the old "they are so bad, it will go under trick?" don't laugh, it happens too often. nolan brought this up a few weeks ago.


pep

 

[pepin46]

i could not believe it either, but finally, one tilted pep's way. too many had flipped the other way lately.

pep

 

[Nick Douglas]

Great job, Pep. I had Pitt when they hit a homer to beat the Cubs in extra innings down 3-2 and when they fell behind Minny 8-0 and came back to win 11-8 this year. They are a bad team but for some reason they produce dramatic wins. People may tell you this game was lucky but don't listen to that. Good and bad breaks are part of the game and your hard work paid off.

As for KC, I have to give you major props there. I had Durbin in this same matchup at KC five days ago and got killed. I looked at the game, had KC as a play and then backed out. As the Drill Instructor in Full Metal Jacket would say, "If your killer instincts are not pure, you will hesitate at the moment of truth. And then you will be in a world of sh(it). Because marines are not allowed to die without permission!"

Love the quote, and great work today. Keep 'em coming and keep it going through NFL season.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Pepin, good call on K.C..i stayed off that game...
one HUGE win from oakland yesterday was enough for me...I don't like betting streaks...

 

[pepin46]

thx nick, tv

i know luck works both ways and i expect to get both sides of it. like i said, i just had too many go the other way lately.

nick, you must have noticed right after i told you about what a great streak i had had, boom, a 1-9 tailspin. i would like to forget about that one and think of this new one (3-1). i noticed you have also had a bit of a slowdown. hey, we do our homework, hope for at least a split, but sometimes it kind of tilts one way or the other. we just have to be patient and wait for the good run, i guess. i changed nothing in my selection process while losing, except to look at more games than usual before making my selections.

btw, just noticed nolan jumped on kc also, and tampa as well. nolan playing dogs? it looks like he made 2 good selections there, his only 2 dogs.

tv
doubling up? fiji?

still, the season is not over yet, let's go get them tomorrow, guys.


pep