2 plays for Monday, including 1 system play

[Double Dribble]

System underdog plays are now 12-3 for the season in NCAA hoops and we have one tonight.

St. Marys +15 1/2 over Utah

also like:

Wofford -1 over College of Charleston

If you decide to play St. Marys, you may want to wait till near gametime to put it in. Most of these dogs have gone against me on line movements and even though I posted Duquesne yersterday at +17 1/2, near gametime it had gone to +19. Of course that didnt help me in that game but im sure you get my point.

GLTA

DD

 

[CaPPiNg TiGeRz]

Good Luck today man ! !! !

 

[zsbob9]

Can you explain your double digit dog system if at all possible...thanks in advance.

 

[redking]

d00d,

I've been on MJs for close to two years now. Double Dribble has had a very impressive debut. Number one last week on bestbettor.com for NCAA hoops.

Just ride his picks bro.

Can you explain your double digit dog system if at all possible...thanks in advance.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good job DD....!!!

i'm on it...good luck to all of us..!!

 

[Double Dribble]

ZSbob9

ZSbob9

A friend of mine who has a PHD in Statistics and who used to teach at Boston University designed a statistical methods program / database that he used for predicting certain patterns in stock movement. He used this program to make some very financially rewarding investment decisions. he knew I had been capping sports for some time now and he approached me with the idea of using this same system to predict the outcome of sports games based on lines and a multitude of individual team date, kind of like our own version of the Sagarin ratings if by chance you have heard of them. This is the first year we have actually put it to the test and so far so good.

I can send you an e-mail with alot more narrative and description on the specs and the software program used but unless you are familiar with statistical linear regression and algorithyms, it will probably just bore you to death!!! It bores me to death as I am a capper not a statistician, but together we are happy with the results of the system. Still a long season to go and again not all my plays are system plays, alot of my plays are just regular capping like what everyone does in this forum.

Ill always designate in the forum what is a system play and what are my plays so as to differentiate the two. I have been fortunate to be doing well In both, but with that said i probably just jinxed the heck out of myself!!!

Let me know if you want more info and ill send you an e-mail. If not then lets just keep pushing for more winners.

Good luck and thanks for the positive comments guys.

DD

 

[zsbob9]

Thanks for the explanation; it is very interesting. I like you would also get bored...Will continue to follow to see how it goes.
Good luck

 

[Jaxx]

System play

System play

What decides a system play. Is the top play the system spits out or what. Very interesting. Thanks. New to forum just feeling my way around!

 

[zsbob9]

Good job with the software program again...keep it up.

 

[Double Dribble]

Ricknjax

Ricknjax

The system spews out more plays then what I list in the forum. The ones that I play and post in the forum are those system plays that fall into the 60% or greater probability of covering the
posted line. For some odd reason all of these are usually big dogs.

It will list favorites in the 50% range but I dont like playing alot of games so I stick with the higher percentage games and then games that I personally just cap on my own based on team assessments and line movements. These are usually not the same plays. I have already noticed that the system dogs that have done the best in covering are when the public is jumping on the big favorite thereby giving me more points then what the system has already determined is to much to give. It happened last night with St. Marys as money was going on Utah. Of course the extra points werent needed but so far when the system pinpoints a dog and the public is jumping on the other team, this has been a pretty profitable bet so far. It is the one situation where I actually want the line to go against me, if it goes with me on these plays i get worried.

Lets see what happens, i wont make a full assessment on this until after the season is over because if after the hoop season is done and if we have finished with a profit, we (as in my statistican buddy and I) will be using it for football next year.

Hope that answers your question

 

[superbook]

DD -- thanks for posting this good stuff.

It makes sense to only play the 60+% plays, especially since you seem to be getting one or more per day.

Have you kept track of how they have done by percentile? ie (60-65%, 65-70% etc).

This might be interesting. Also if you would care to post the percentile of certainty that your plays are, I for one would find this interesting.

Another question: your system doesn't just use dogs, it just turns out that it spits out dogs? It's possible a fav might come out too?

Thanks again for all of your (and your friend's) hard work.

- Jon

 

[Double Dribble]

Superbook

Superbook

As far as percentages on these plays and I am referring to just the 60% system dog plays, they are 13-3 for the season so that gives the system an 81% accuracy rate. I log all my plays at bestbettor .com so i dont post an overall record here in this forum. Anybody wanting to check can just go to that site and check if they so desire. Of course this record includes system plays and my own plays. For the purpose of tracking these 60% system plays, since im sure that is what most may be interested in, ill keep a rolling tally here in this forum.

Im hesitant about posting all the system plays from 50% on up because honestly i dont play them. I would hate to list these games with the perception that i do, having them end up losers, when i didnt even risk anything on the games. I know there wont always be winning days, nobody and no system wins all the tme but at least ill know the plays I posted were ones in which i also took the risk. Let me think about that one.

On your last question, the system so far has not produced a favorite in the 60% range but it does produce favorites at a lower range. For some odd reason the system likes dogs and would never give out a double digit favorite, that I know for sure. We tried this system out this last weekend in the NFL and even in football it chose Atlanta and Cleveland..... both dogs.

Lets see what comes up down the road, things may change in conference play and come March Madness.

Thanks for the positive comments, much appreciated.

DD

 

[superbook]

DD --

Thanks for your detailed response.

In terms of percentages, what I meant was a breakdown of the 60%+ plays by confidence level. For example, so far you're 13-3 but that could be...

8-2 60 - 65%

4-1 65 -70%

1-0 75%+

...which would tell you that when the computer spits out a play at the 75% confidence level you might want to put more on it than one at the 60% level?

I think Massey (masseyratings.com) also uses a regression analysis tool in his predictions. I spent some time on this once, but it was way over my head.

Keep the winners coming.

- Jon

 

[Unicorn]

How do you know the percentages? Is this info on a site somewhere? Thanks for the info guys...