Call these games of the week, month, year, or whatever. Suprised they have fallen on a Friday when the Vegas lines are usually tight, but here they are and since I am playing them HUGE, I will provide all of the information that I used to come up with these plays:
1. Memphis laying 10 over Southern Miss.
First, reasons why the line is low given the fact that Memphis beat this team by 22 a couple weeks ago. The game is being played at Southern Miss in front of a national audience on ESPN. Another reason is that Elvin Mims, Southern Miss's leading scorer and rebounder, did not play in their last meeting. Also need to understand that Southern Miss has owned Memphis in the past couple years both straight up and ATS.
However, it is obvious that this Memphis team is completely different from the teams they had during the past couple years. Wagner might be the best incoming freshman of the year while the majority of the team is a veteran squad filled with experience. For these reasons, I feel the line is actually not as fishy as some will probably claim.
Reasons to take Memphis:
There are several. . . but the most important IMO is the rebounding edge which clearly belongs to Memphis. They average 42 rebounds per game while Southern Miss averages 30. Memphis has also averaged 8.4 rebounds more than their opponents due to their 6-9, 6-10, and 7-0 frontcourt. Leading rebounders for Southern Miss are a couple guards (including Mims) listed at 6-5 and their "center" listed at 6-9. In the first meeting, Memphis outrebounded Southern Miss 43 to 35 and I see no reason why Mims will cut this advantage in the 2nd meeting.
Without a frontcourt to match up effectively with Memphis, Southern Miss will have to rely on outside shooting (especially from Mims) to stay in this game. Unfortunately for Southern Miss, Memphis is one of the best teams in the country at defensive 3 point FG% limiting their opponents to 26.4%. I'm sure that Wagner will match up with Mims and should be able to keep Mims within check although he might end up being Southern Miss's leading scorer this game because they simply do not have any options inside.
Memphis is 10-5 ATS this year, winning their last 7 out of 8. Of their 4 ATS losses, only one came where they won the game, but failed to cover the spread: at home against Tennessee as a 7.5 favorite. This line was absurd and if I recall, I'm almost sure that I had Tennessee because of getting 7.5 for an in-state rivalry game of this magnitude.
Southern Miss is 3-7 ATS this year and 1-2 ATS as a home dog. . . their only win as a home dog coming against UAB.
Not sure what else to add to this one. . . Memphis has held their opponents to an incredible 37.1% FG shooting and I'm not sure that Southern Miss will even hit this percentage given the fact that they simply do not measure up with their frontcourt. Memphis shot 45% the first meeting while holding Southern Miss to 25%. Sure, both numbers may change a little given that the game will now be played at Southern Miss, but the fact remains that Memphis should have easy shooting opportunities while Memphis should struggle to find open looks up front. Mims will have to have an All American type performance against Wagner in order to keep his team in contention and I see this as a very unlikely scenerio.
This message has been long enough. . . will post a seperate message for game 2 below:
1. Memphis laying 10 over Southern Miss.
First, reasons why the line is low given the fact that Memphis beat this team by 22 a couple weeks ago. The game is being played at Southern Miss in front of a national audience on ESPN. Another reason is that Elvin Mims, Southern Miss's leading scorer and rebounder, did not play in their last meeting. Also need to understand that Southern Miss has owned Memphis in the past couple years both straight up and ATS.
However, it is obvious that this Memphis team is completely different from the teams they had during the past couple years. Wagner might be the best incoming freshman of the year while the majority of the team is a veteran squad filled with experience. For these reasons, I feel the line is actually not as fishy as some will probably claim.
Reasons to take Memphis:
There are several. . . but the most important IMO is the rebounding edge which clearly belongs to Memphis. They average 42 rebounds per game while Southern Miss averages 30. Memphis has also averaged 8.4 rebounds more than their opponents due to their 6-9, 6-10, and 7-0 frontcourt. Leading rebounders for Southern Miss are a couple guards (including Mims) listed at 6-5 and their "center" listed at 6-9. In the first meeting, Memphis outrebounded Southern Miss 43 to 35 and I see no reason why Mims will cut this advantage in the 2nd meeting.
Without a frontcourt to match up effectively with Memphis, Southern Miss will have to rely on outside shooting (especially from Mims) to stay in this game. Unfortunately for Southern Miss, Memphis is one of the best teams in the country at defensive 3 point FG% limiting their opponents to 26.4%. I'm sure that Wagner will match up with Mims and should be able to keep Mims within check although he might end up being Southern Miss's leading scorer this game because they simply do not have any options inside.
Memphis is 10-5 ATS this year, winning their last 7 out of 8. Of their 4 ATS losses, only one came where they won the game, but failed to cover the spread: at home against Tennessee as a 7.5 favorite. This line was absurd and if I recall, I'm almost sure that I had Tennessee because of getting 7.5 for an in-state rivalry game of this magnitude.
Southern Miss is 3-7 ATS this year and 1-2 ATS as a home dog. . . their only win as a home dog coming against UAB.
Not sure what else to add to this one. . . Memphis has held their opponents to an incredible 37.1% FG shooting and I'm not sure that Southern Miss will even hit this percentage given the fact that they simply do not measure up with their frontcourt. Memphis shot 45% the first meeting while holding Southern Miss to 25%. Sure, both numbers may change a little given that the game will now be played at Southern Miss, but the fact remains that Memphis should have easy shooting opportunities while Memphis should struggle to find open looks up front. Mims will have to have an All American type performance against Wagner in order to keep his team in contention and I see this as a very unlikely scenerio.
This message has been long enough. . . will post a seperate message for game 2 below:
