Predictions 2004
Well another year of hits and misses, just like to thank everyone for the responses, the predictions have been online since 1998.
1. The economy should continue to do well, in the US economy will grow by more than 4% on average for the year, in Canada it will grow by at least 3%.
RECAP correct, Canada economy started slowing due to the higher cdn. dollar but still over 3% for the year. US economy put in a solid performance.
2. Oil/gas Gas will trade above $5 and may go as high as $7.50, oil will trade above $25US and probably stay above $28, on the upside may hit $35 will not stay there for long. Have heard of some ?expets? that oil will fall to $20, they are missing one point
China. China need more resources as their economy grows, if their economy grows by 8% on average in the next five years oil consumption will just continue to grow also other resources.
RECAP well it went above $28, many brokerages were putting it at $25 for the year, and I made a bullish case, more demand. however never thought it would trade above $40, thought around $30 - $32.50. Resource often overshoot.
3.George Bush wins the next US election, thought the last time he would beat Gore, now Gore backers are pushing Dean. Will have to run a better campaign than what I have saw so far. Also the economy will be doing better which is the most important election issue.
RECAP Bush won, Dean never made it as far, he had a great organization and money but he made a terrible speech after a primary and it was over that quickly. Dean did run a terrible campaign, so did Kerry.
4. Martin wins a majority in Canada. NDP make some gains and the reform/conservatives under Harper (think he will win) will fail to win but a handful of seat in Ontario and nothing in Quebec. Martin will then increase cdn. military spending and increase social spending. Will still have balanced budgets?
RECAP Well Martin won but only a minority, he came short only by a few seats, there was a scandel and it looked like the consevatives would win. however they did nothing in Quebec and very poorly in Ontario. They ran a terrible campaign.
Martin did and is increasing military spending, also spending more on health care (social) and child care. hope in a year or two for tax cuts....
5. The US after the election will have to start looking at the rising debt, cut government spending or raise taxes or maybe a bit of both. Of coarse depends on the US economy how much of a problem it becomes in 2004.
RECAP the debt is going to have be dealt with, a sign of this is the falling US dollar.
6. US dollar will still fall against most of the major currencies. See 5. The dollar was overvalued and fell sharply this year, will fall though not as much. For example the cdn. dollar is up over 21% against the dollar. Cdn. dollar hits .80 and stays in the .76-.80 range for most of the year.
RECAP well the US dollar fell against most major currencies...all? the cdn. dollar is at .81 range was slightly higher.
7. Most OVERATED STORY of 2003
The FEAR around SARS, MAD COW, and WEST NILE. Now first of all these diseases killed and ruined peoples live, but it is the fear that caused billions in health, economic tourism/business travel.
Mad Cow since 1996 has killed 133 people world wide
West Nile kills about 10-12 people a year
SARS killed 5000
RECAP Made cow still got plenty of headlines, number of people killed in North America...ZERO.
important but over reported story that trys to scare people.
Anyways my father has cancer, they found it in September now it is now life or death. The survival rate is extremely high, however the Doctor said operation (80% chance of getting all of it, if not then treatment that generally work, take a lot out of you) would be in November they were running late, should have it in October.
Well in November they told him just before Christmas, went for 3 test, on separate days, so a week after the final test and he has bought some items they phone and cancel everything. They tell him it is politics, apparently all of his docters surgeries were cancelled in favour of clearing up a backlog in other day surgeries. Well hopefully Jan, it is like The TRIAL. It will be resolved but it is incredible
The medical system is like the Trial except this will have a happy ending.
RECAP father went in late Jan, and came out after being in hospital over a month. he was strong and healthy or would be dead. went through three sugeries, and almost never made it three times.
on the road to recovery....
Well another year of hits and misses, just like to thank everyone for the responses, the predictions have been online since 1998.
1. The economy should continue to do well, in the US economy will grow by more than 4% on average for the year, in Canada it will grow by at least 3%.
RECAP correct, Canada economy started slowing due to the higher cdn. dollar but still over 3% for the year. US economy put in a solid performance.
2. Oil/gas Gas will trade above $5 and may go as high as $7.50, oil will trade above $25US and probably stay above $28, on the upside may hit $35 will not stay there for long. Have heard of some ?expets? that oil will fall to $20, they are missing one point
China. China need more resources as their economy grows, if their economy grows by 8% on average in the next five years oil consumption will just continue to grow also other resources.
RECAP well it went above $28, many brokerages were putting it at $25 for the year, and I made a bullish case, more demand. however never thought it would trade above $40, thought around $30 - $32.50. Resource often overshoot.
3.George Bush wins the next US election, thought the last time he would beat Gore, now Gore backers are pushing Dean. Will have to run a better campaign than what I have saw so far. Also the economy will be doing better which is the most important election issue.
RECAP Bush won, Dean never made it as far, he had a great organization and money but he made a terrible speech after a primary and it was over that quickly. Dean did run a terrible campaign, so did Kerry.
4. Martin wins a majority in Canada. NDP make some gains and the reform/conservatives under Harper (think he will win) will fail to win but a handful of seat in Ontario and nothing in Quebec. Martin will then increase cdn. military spending and increase social spending. Will still have balanced budgets?
RECAP Well Martin won but only a minority, he came short only by a few seats, there was a scandel and it looked like the consevatives would win. however they did nothing in Quebec and very poorly in Ontario. They ran a terrible campaign.
Martin did and is increasing military spending, also spending more on health care (social) and child care. hope in a year or two for tax cuts....
5. The US after the election will have to start looking at the rising debt, cut government spending or raise taxes or maybe a bit of both. Of coarse depends on the US economy how much of a problem it becomes in 2004.
RECAP the debt is going to have be dealt with, a sign of this is the falling US dollar.
6. US dollar will still fall against most of the major currencies. See 5. The dollar was overvalued and fell sharply this year, will fall though not as much. For example the cdn. dollar is up over 21% against the dollar. Cdn. dollar hits .80 and stays in the .76-.80 range for most of the year.
RECAP well the US dollar fell against most major currencies...all? the cdn. dollar is at .81 range was slightly higher.
7. Most OVERATED STORY of 2003
The FEAR around SARS, MAD COW, and WEST NILE. Now first of all these diseases killed and ruined peoples live, but it is the fear that caused billions in health, economic tourism/business travel.
Mad Cow since 1996 has killed 133 people world wide
West Nile kills about 10-12 people a year
SARS killed 5000
RECAP Made cow still got plenty of headlines, number of people killed in North America...ZERO.
important but over reported story that trys to scare people.
Anyways my father has cancer, they found it in September now it is now life or death. The survival rate is extremely high, however the Doctor said operation (80% chance of getting all of it, if not then treatment that generally work, take a lot out of you) would be in November they were running late, should have it in October.
Well in November they told him just before Christmas, went for 3 test, on separate days, so a week after the final test and he has bought some items they phone and cancel everything. They tell him it is politics, apparently all of his docters surgeries were cancelled in favour of clearing up a backlog in other day surgeries. Well hopefully Jan, it is like The TRIAL. It will be resolved but it is incredible
The medical system is like the Trial except this will have a happy ending.
RECAP father went in late Jan, and came out after being in hospital over a month. he was strong and healthy or would be dead. went through three sugeries, and almost never made it three times.
on the road to recovery....
