2006 NBA Playoffs: No ?I? in Mavs

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2006 NBA Playoffs: No ?I? in Mavs
by Mark Rothstein

We thought the Detroit Pistons exemplified team basketball. As it turns out, there are more than five players on a basketball team.

The Pistons, two-time Eastern Conference champions and seeking their second NBA title in three years, imploded at the moment of truth. They barely survived the Cleveland Cavaliers in seven games during the Eastern semifinal, then got humiliated by the Miami Heat in the conference final, four games to two. The Heat were supposed to be the ones with questions about team chemistry; instead, it was Detroit who fell apart, openly criticizing coach Flip Saunders for his questionable substitution patterns and lack of attention to defense.

Pat Riley?s radical offseason makeover of the club is now an unqualified success. Offensively gifted players like Jason Williams and Antoine Walker, who had trouble living up to expectations at other stops in their NBA careers, became useful specialists for the Heat, while Gary Payton and James Posey (especially Posey) provided the complementary defense. Riley, resuming the role of coach, used this versatility to create matchup problems that Saunders could not solve.

The Pistons may have been the title favorites going into the postseason, but it looks like the Dallas Mavericks will present Miami with a challenge worthy of an NBA finals. Dallas coach Avery Johnson has been masterful at putting the right people on the court at the right time, and his mix of players appears deeper and even more talented than what Riley has to work with. The Mavs are favored in this series, and go into Thursday?s Game 1 as 4 ?-point home favorites. The total is 192 ?.

Johnson has been a virtuoso conductor during these playoffs, especially at the center position. Erick Dampier abused Memphis in the first round with 8.8 rebounds (more than half of those on the offensive glass) and 2.25 blocks per game. However, it was Cavs castoff DeSagana Diop who was lauded for his defensive work against Tim Duncan in the following series against the Spurs. The third round against the Suns saw Diop split time with both Keith Van Horn and Adrian Griffin as Johnson took full advantage of the injuries to Phoenix? frontline.

None of the big men Dallas has confronted thus far in the postseason ? not even Tim Duncan ? can change a game like Shaquille O?Neal. Even if O?Neal is slowly easing into a ?secondary? role behind the truly dominant Dwyane Wade, there is still a vast drop-off between Shaq and every other center in the NBA. Saunders went into the trenches against O?Neal with his starting five and lost. Johnson will not make that same mistake; Dampier will likely make a return to action as he and Diop try to contain O?Neal and get the big man in foul trouble. ?You need bodies,? Johnson told reporters Monday. ?We?ve got two big bodies now.?

Miami?s challenge will be to do something, anything to stop Dirk Nowitzki. In 17 postseason games, Nowitzki has produced a jaw-dropping average of 28.4 points and 11.9 rebounds, plus 3.1 assists and 1.2 steals for good measure. That gives him a playoff Player Efficiency Rating of 29.85, just a shade behind Duncan. Nowitzki?s full-court skills make him incredibly difficult to guard. If Riley can find the right personnel to do it, his legacy will be cemented and Miami will have its first NBA title. The difficulty of that task is what makes Dallas the favorite.





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2006 NBA Finals Preview
by Robby Maddux

As the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat prepare to do battle in their first ever NBA Finals appearance, there's many key factors that should be looked at before placing your wagers, and breaking down the important ones can put you on your way to the ticket window.

Dallas won both games in the regular season both SU and ATS by a combined 49 points. During those two games, Miami had no answers for Dirk Nowitzki, allowing him to average 25 ppg on 56 percent shooting. Nowitzki has been absolutely stellar in this year?s playoffs, leading in scoring, rebounding, and 3-point shooting. His unprecedented versatility will be the Mavs' main weapon against a Heat team that needs to find a way to slow him down or it could be a short series.

The guys that most likely will get the duties of guarding Nowitzki throughout the Finals are the Heat's Udonis Haslem and James Posey. Both have decent inside and outside defensive games needed to contain him, but neither have both talents and this could be huge. Nowitzki?s inside game now compliments his outside shooting, and the combination makes him nearly unstoppable, so Haslem and Posey must be able to step-up big against Nowitzki to give Miami a legitimate chance.

Shaquille O?Neal is the muscle behind the Heat, but it's Dwayne Wade's heart that keeps them pumping. Wade?s astonishing performances have helped Miami rise above an average perimeter defense, questionable team chemistry and inconsistent performances from O?Neal.

But aside from Wade's raw talents, the key of the Heat?s Finals appearance is the almost improbable surfacing of team basketball. Antoine Walker?s uprising as a third option is going to be crucial. He's matured since leaving Boston and he isn?t throwing up bad shots like the Walker of old, but instead is making selfless decisions and picking his spots on offense. As the Mavs primary focus will be on O'Neal and Wade, expect Walker to have his opportunity to shine with many open looks, as his execution on these chances may be game deciding.

On the road in this year's playoffs, the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 away games and own the same mark in their last 6 overall. But when it comes to playing strong teams the Heat can't cash with a sour 0-5 ATS number in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. It's the exact opposite for the Mavs as they are a sharp 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.

In head-to-head action, total players have feasted on the over in this matchup. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and it's the same result in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. As well, when these two matchup the Heat have flattened the wallets of their investors with a dismal 0-5 ATS record.

However, through all the analysis and handicapping it may all simply come down to the play of O'Neal. If O?Neal can dominate like he has at times in the playoffs and over his career, the Heat can win the series. If the Mavs can find a way to keep him in check, or he can?t continue his throwback dominance, the Mavs can take it. The two two-day breaks between Games 1 & 2, and Games 4 & 5 will only help the 34-year-old big man in his quest to win his third NBA title with three different clubs.



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