9/5 Georgia +200 (@Ok St)
9/5 Penn St -27 (vs Akron)
I've been watching the UGA game at +210 waiting to see if I could get a little more. At yesterday's move, I went ahead and bought in for fear that the line would drop further. The PSU line has been rock steady, but I am concerned that I might lose the hook if I waited until Fri/Sat.
My take on the UGA game is that the wrong team is favored in this game. Period. I know alot of folks feel differently and I certainly might be wrong, but I thought UGA would be about a TD favorite. I don't really care that Stafford is gone, I'm kind of glad that Moreno is gone and I'm somewhat concerned that Massaquoi is gone. UGA O line is better than last year's and finally almost as big as other SEC lines, so I feel pretty good. When I compare the UGA offense to the OSU defense, I see a mismatch. When I make the comparison the other way, I see another mismatch, but not the one the linesmakers apparently see (not that I think UGA will shut them down completely, but that UGA will hold the OSU O to half or less of the points they'll score on average this year). I think that if I'm right, then UGA should win outright, and if I'm wrong (and OSU can score at will) the points probably won't help me. The score I come up with is UGA 35-OSU 24, which through blind luck is close to the total line. UGA on the ML.
Regarding PSU, I think the line is dead-on - I just think that it undervalues PSU's ambitions. I think they need to open up big so that they can (hopefully) jump a few folks in the polls and get into the championship picture. I certainly think they can just about name the final score, so this makes me think they will score big. Joe Pa knows time is running out. They've beaten the spread on their opener 4 of the last 5 years and two of those times were against Akron (45-10 in 04, 34-16 in 06, as 15 and 17 point favs). The last two years, they won 59-0 and 66-10. I don't know how to project the score for this type of game. PSU minus the points.
9/5 Penn St -27 (vs Akron)
I've been watching the UGA game at +210 waiting to see if I could get a little more. At yesterday's move, I went ahead and bought in for fear that the line would drop further. The PSU line has been rock steady, but I am concerned that I might lose the hook if I waited until Fri/Sat.
My take on the UGA game is that the wrong team is favored in this game. Period. I know alot of folks feel differently and I certainly might be wrong, but I thought UGA would be about a TD favorite. I don't really care that Stafford is gone, I'm kind of glad that Moreno is gone and I'm somewhat concerned that Massaquoi is gone. UGA O line is better than last year's and finally almost as big as other SEC lines, so I feel pretty good. When I compare the UGA offense to the OSU defense, I see a mismatch. When I make the comparison the other way, I see another mismatch, but not the one the linesmakers apparently see (not that I think UGA will shut them down completely, but that UGA will hold the OSU O to half or less of the points they'll score on average this year). I think that if I'm right, then UGA should win outright, and if I'm wrong (and OSU can score at will) the points probably won't help me. The score I come up with is UGA 35-OSU 24, which through blind luck is close to the total line. UGA on the ML.
Regarding PSU, I think the line is dead-on - I just think that it undervalues PSU's ambitions. I think they need to open up big so that they can (hopefully) jump a few folks in the polls and get into the championship picture. I certainly think they can just about name the final score, so this makes me think they will score big. Joe Pa knows time is running out. They've beaten the spread on their opener 4 of the last 5 years and two of those times were against Akron (45-10 in 04, 34-16 in 06, as 15 and 17 point favs). The last two years, they won 59-0 and 66-10. I don't know how to project the score for this type of game. PSU minus the points.
