the predictions did not do that bad in 2010 some big winners and small losers, will update for 2011, soon, (are the updates)
good luck and happy new year.
thanks
sekirk
1. (HYG and JNK counting the div returned from 11-15% so not bad for your income portfolio)
HYG JNK, both of these etfs deal with low grade US debt market, or junk bond market, or high yield market sounds better?in 2009 we talked about this was an easy way to invest in case the market rose and if not you would probably yield 14%. Now the yield is at 9%, and that is probably what it will return in 2010, still not bad. Will do better I a bull market. Hyg 61-$88 $88 Jnk $25-$39 $39
2. (poland etf made 7.8% which is not bad since what europe has been through, would wait and see if this went cheaper if europe gets in more trouble.)
PLND $25 US low 23.022 26.34 high. If the market recovers then emerging markets will recover also, Poland is one of the best in Eastern Europe?good structure, should do well.
3. (this is a loser not counting of div lost 12.54%, will look at this as believe it may be getting cheaper but have been wrong on this play.)
MA $253US low 117 high close 256, Mastercard is trading at 23PE, and that may seem high but they get paid per transaction and take no credit risk. Even during the economic downturn the transactions increased ( a small amount), this stock is volatile, but during a sell off it will be on my buy list?.with debit and credit cards we are moving very quickly to a cashless society.
4. (made 33.8% on the movies, I love the movies
the business reported good earnings, and more important people chased yield, so good corperation on toronto and the biggest movie chain. would rate it a hold only yields 5.60% would buy at 6% yield or greater. may get my chance...changing to a corp from a income trust.)
CGX.un do you want popcorn with that. Cineplex is by far the biggest theatre chain in Canada (only) besides Imax. Low 12.05 high 18.49 close bought 17.75cdn. yield 7% div 1.26. after they convert which all income trusts have to do by 2011, however they have enough losses, and costs that they will be exempt for the next 5 years. Also revenue and earnings are growing, more people are going to the movies, and 3D movies are common. Also their advertising program is growing? so next time you buy that $20 worth of popcorn be happy you are getting 7%.
5. (basically not their year, mfc now not 20 is at 16.96 not counting div, slf made a small gain 31 now at 30.48 not counting div...of 1.44, so a small gain. these may do well in 2011 but a high risk play, called leverage so be carefull and small positons if any.....)
MFC, SLF remember when analyst were falling all over themselves talking about these two insurance companies, and now know one cares. If the market rallies so will these two good retail insurance companies, MFC will climb to 25 and SLF close to $40 cdn. MFC will not go to 40 for some time since management issued 2.5 billion of stock at lower levels,?the word is stupid. MFC is big in the US, and China, SLF is US (smaller, Europe, and India)?not so bad?a safer pick would be pwf?but they all go higher. MFC 20, SLF 31, PWF 29cdn.
6. (nick did hit in the 8-10 range for year, now at 10.31 for a 48.34% gain, into 2011 comments stay the same bigger upside and more risk in the us financials than the cnd. banks.)
NICK is a small US fianancial on Nasdaq, and two value investors of note like the stock?it should make .35, and maybe .80 if the housing market comes back?.the worse is probably over so 6.95 US, low 1.69 high 7.60?probably a $8-10 stock a year from now,?or dead money. The US financials have more upside than the Canadian banks?.but carry more risk.
7. you know gold stocks and covered calls did work, abx yri and other seniors moved, however in the last two months the moves have been bigger and will lose more of my positions...still these stocks return with the calls would give you 30%+ returns for the year...so not bad, only setback is have yri 12 calls, so rolled them out to april for another .70......time will tell)
GOLD GOLD GOLD I heard an expert?? On CNBC talk about how he would just want to own the metal and not bother with the gold stocks?.wow..where do they get these people?let me tell you a secret.. if gold goes up so does the sr. gold companies, eventually? also you can write covered calls. Bought yri for 8.50 cdn. have written covered calls at 10 and now at 12, four of them?brought my cost down for 4.50, the stock is at 12.20cdn. that is a good return in a year?so gold stocks and covered calls?it is that easy?
8. (rim closed at 60.69 compare to the 66, thogh the results were for the most part good the stock did not act well low was 44.94, so basically avoided it, currently have a very small position with covered calls, believe it is cheap but not acting well. so small position of stock ,cheap but hated, especially in the US of this stock, great results last week and the stock barely moved...nothing much new there.)
RIM $68 high 95 low 45.56 RIMM $66US 35-88 This stock came out with great quarterly numbers and the stock went higher, however since then the stock which popped over 10% on the news have drifted lower, to where it is below the good news. Does the stock look cheap, yes, and it might be a good opportunity, but it is not acting well?so will avoid, nothing like buying a value trap? would like it at higher levels, acting stronger. Yes avoid, and buy higher, if at all.
9. (rates did not go up and all of these bonds would do good, preferred xcb and the corporate bonds did out perform so go that correct, however thought rates would go up, that was wrong....that is a 2011 story. still for cdn. investors xbb is a good way to build up cdn. bond index.)
XBB, XSB, XCB, for the most part would avoid bond, as rates will slowly go higher this year, so would stick to the short term bond fund XSB. And a small amount of XCB corporate bonds, as the economy recovers this should do okay, every portfolio needs bonds?so over time would build up a position in XBB.
10. (highlighted the high debt in the US and the UK the uk are in worse shape, this is a story that will hit over 5 years, will depend on many items but seems heading in the same direction, the sky is not falliing, but reason to be concerned.)
Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard study the link between different levels of debt and countries? economic growth. If debt is greater than 90% of GDP countries economies would underperform by 2% (economic growth, when compared to countries whose debt was less than 30% of annual GDP. The US is at 85% in 2009 and expected to reach 108% by 2014, the UK is at 69% in 2009 and will be at 98% 2013. according to IMF.
This also depends on how the economy does going forward, a stronger economy the more revenue, ect. And on the level of government spending..ect? though the trend is not going in the correct direction.. A country with an increasing debt load might have to raise taxes, where a country with lower debt can do more (maybe lower taxes) and even afford to spend more?.an interesting study, and something to watch for in the coming years?in about 5 years time will tell?.it always does.
good luck and happy new year.
thanks
sekirk
1. (HYG and JNK counting the div returned from 11-15% so not bad for your income portfolio)
HYG JNK, both of these etfs deal with low grade US debt market, or junk bond market, or high yield market sounds better?in 2009 we talked about this was an easy way to invest in case the market rose and if not you would probably yield 14%. Now the yield is at 9%, and that is probably what it will return in 2010, still not bad. Will do better I a bull market. Hyg 61-$88 $88 Jnk $25-$39 $39
2. (poland etf made 7.8% which is not bad since what europe has been through, would wait and see if this went cheaper if europe gets in more trouble.)
PLND $25 US low 23.022 26.34 high. If the market recovers then emerging markets will recover also, Poland is one of the best in Eastern Europe?good structure, should do well.
3. (this is a loser not counting of div lost 12.54%, will look at this as believe it may be getting cheaper but have been wrong on this play.)
MA $253US low 117 high close 256, Mastercard is trading at 23PE, and that may seem high but they get paid per transaction and take no credit risk. Even during the economic downturn the transactions increased ( a small amount), this stock is volatile, but during a sell off it will be on my buy list?.with debit and credit cards we are moving very quickly to a cashless society.
4. (made 33.8% on the movies, I love the movies
the business reported good earnings, and more important people chased yield, so good corperation on toronto and the biggest movie chain. would rate it a hold only yields 5.60% would buy at 6% yield or greater. may get my chance...changing to a corp from a income trust.)
CGX.un do you want popcorn with that. Cineplex is by far the biggest theatre chain in Canada (only) besides Imax. Low 12.05 high 18.49 close bought 17.75cdn. yield 7% div 1.26. after they convert which all income trusts have to do by 2011, however they have enough losses, and costs that they will be exempt for the next 5 years. Also revenue and earnings are growing, more people are going to the movies, and 3D movies are common. Also their advertising program is growing? so next time you buy that $20 worth of popcorn be happy you are getting 7%.
5. (basically not their year, mfc now not 20 is at 16.96 not counting div, slf made a small gain 31 now at 30.48 not counting div...of 1.44, so a small gain. these may do well in 2011 but a high risk play, called leverage so be carefull and small positons if any.....)
MFC, SLF remember when analyst were falling all over themselves talking about these two insurance companies, and now know one cares. If the market rallies so will these two good retail insurance companies, MFC will climb to 25 and SLF close to $40 cdn. MFC will not go to 40 for some time since management issued 2.5 billion of stock at lower levels,?the word is stupid. MFC is big in the US, and China, SLF is US (smaller, Europe, and India)?not so bad?a safer pick would be pwf?but they all go higher. MFC 20, SLF 31, PWF 29cdn.
6. (nick did hit in the 8-10 range for year, now at 10.31 for a 48.34% gain, into 2011 comments stay the same bigger upside and more risk in the us financials than the cnd. banks.)
NICK is a small US fianancial on Nasdaq, and two value investors of note like the stock?it should make .35, and maybe .80 if the housing market comes back?.the worse is probably over so 6.95 US, low 1.69 high 7.60?probably a $8-10 stock a year from now,?or dead money. The US financials have more upside than the Canadian banks?.but carry more risk.
7. you know gold stocks and covered calls did work, abx yri and other seniors moved, however in the last two months the moves have been bigger and will lose more of my positions...still these stocks return with the calls would give you 30%+ returns for the year...so not bad, only setback is have yri 12 calls, so rolled them out to april for another .70......time will tell)
GOLD GOLD GOLD I heard an expert?? On CNBC talk about how he would just want to own the metal and not bother with the gold stocks?.wow..where do they get these people?let me tell you a secret.. if gold goes up so does the sr. gold companies, eventually? also you can write covered calls. Bought yri for 8.50 cdn. have written covered calls at 10 and now at 12, four of them?brought my cost down for 4.50, the stock is at 12.20cdn. that is a good return in a year?so gold stocks and covered calls?it is that easy?
8. (rim closed at 60.69 compare to the 66, thogh the results were for the most part good the stock did not act well low was 44.94, so basically avoided it, currently have a very small position with covered calls, believe it is cheap but not acting well. so small position of stock ,cheap but hated, especially in the US of this stock, great results last week and the stock barely moved...nothing much new there.)
RIM $68 high 95 low 45.56 RIMM $66US 35-88 This stock came out with great quarterly numbers and the stock went higher, however since then the stock which popped over 10% on the news have drifted lower, to where it is below the good news. Does the stock look cheap, yes, and it might be a good opportunity, but it is not acting well?so will avoid, nothing like buying a value trap? would like it at higher levels, acting stronger. Yes avoid, and buy higher, if at all.
9. (rates did not go up and all of these bonds would do good, preferred xcb and the corporate bonds did out perform so go that correct, however thought rates would go up, that was wrong....that is a 2011 story. still for cdn. investors xbb is a good way to build up cdn. bond index.)
XBB, XSB, XCB, for the most part would avoid bond, as rates will slowly go higher this year, so would stick to the short term bond fund XSB. And a small amount of XCB corporate bonds, as the economy recovers this should do okay, every portfolio needs bonds?so over time would build up a position in XBB.
10. (highlighted the high debt in the US and the UK the uk are in worse shape, this is a story that will hit over 5 years, will depend on many items but seems heading in the same direction, the sky is not falliing, but reason to be concerned.)
Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard study the link between different levels of debt and countries? economic growth. If debt is greater than 90% of GDP countries economies would underperform by 2% (economic growth, when compared to countries whose debt was less than 30% of annual GDP. The US is at 85% in 2009 and expected to reach 108% by 2014, the UK is at 69% in 2009 and will be at 98% 2013. according to IMF.
This also depends on how the economy does going forward, a stronger economy the more revenue, ect. And on the level of government spending..ect? though the trend is not going in the correct direction.. A country with an increasing debt load might have to raise taxes, where a country with lower debt can do more (maybe lower taxes) and even afford to spend more?.an interesting study, and something to watch for in the coming years?in about 5 years time will tell?.it always does.
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