I've put together some info for the 2012 NFL teams. The first chart lists each teams Pythagorean Wins based on points scored and points allowed for the 2011 NFL season. You'll see each teams projected wins and their actual wins and the difference of the two. For example a team like Green Bay's point differential should have netted them 12.3 wins, not 15 like they had last year. (I use ^2.67 as my factor, others may use something different)
PF PA projected actual wins difference
312 - 348 - Arizona Cardinals - 6.8 - 8.0 - (1.2)
402 - 350 - Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 - 10.0 - (0.5)
378 - 266 - Baltimore Ravens - 11.5 - 12.0 - (0.5)
372 - 434 - Buffalo Bills - 6.4 - 6.0 - 0.4
406 - 429 - Carolina Panthers - 7.4 - 6.0 - 1.4
353 - 341 - Chicago Bears - 8.4 - 8.0 - 0.4
344 - 323 - Cincinnati Bengals - 8.7 - 9.0 - (0.3)
218 - 307 - Cleveland Browns - 4.6 - 4.0 - 0.6
369 - 347 - Dallas Cowboys - 8.7 - 8.0 - 0.7
309 - 390 - Denver Broncos - 5.6 - 8.0 - (2.4)
474 - 387 - Detroit Lions - 10.1 - 10.0 - 0.1
560 - 359 - Green Bay Packers - 12.3 - 15.0 - (2.7)
381 - 278 - Houston Texans - 11.2 - 10.0 - 1.2
243 - 430 - Indianapolis Colts - 2.9 - 2.0 - 0.9
243 - 329 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.9 - 5.0 - (0.1)
212 - 338 - Kansas City Chiefs - 3.6 - 7.0 - (3.4)
329 - 313 - Miami Dolphins - 8.5 - 6.0 - 2.5
340 - 449 - Minnesota Vikings - 5.2 - 3.0 - 2.2
513 - 342 - New England Patriots - 12.0 - 13.0 - (1.0)
547 - 339 - New Orleans Saints - 12.5 - 13.0 - (0.5)
394 - 400 - New York Giants - 7.8 - 9.0 - (1.2)
377 - 363 - New York Jets - 8.4 - 8.0 - 0.4
359 - 433 - Oakland Raiders - 6.0 - 8.0 - (2.0)
396 - 328 - Philadelphia Eagles - 10.0 - 8.0 - 2.0
325 - 227 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 11.6 - 12.0 - (0.4)
406 - 377 - San Diego Chargers - 8.8 - 8.0 - 0.8
380 - 229 - San Francisco 49ers - 12.7 - 13.0 - (0.3)
321 - 315 - Seattle Seahawks - 8.2 - 7.0 - 1.2
193 - 407 - St. Louis Rams - 1.9 - 2.0 - (0.1)
287 - 494 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.0 - 4.0 - (1.0)
325 - 317 - Tennessee Titans - 8.3 - 9.0 - (0.7)
288 - 367 - Washington Redskins - 5.5 - 5.0 - 0.5
The second chart adjusts each teams points scored and allowed based on their turnover margin from the year before. I then add those "lost or gained points" into their point totals adjusting them to see how much they benefited from their turnover margin. Here's how I do it for each team. Let's take a look at San Francisco for example.
1. Their turnover ratio was an amazing +28 last year. That's +1.75 turnover EVERY GAME.
2. After doing some research I've comfortable saying every time a team turns the ball over the other team GAINS 4 points on the scoreboard on average.
3. In SF's case they gained 7 points each game by their turnover margin, amazing. (+28 total divided by 16 giving them 1.75 per game margin. I then take 1.75 and multiply that by 4, which equals 7 points a week.
4. In this chart below you'll see I adjust each team's PF/PA based on these numbers giving me a new Projected win total based on points not generated from TO's. SF's total "turnover" points were +112 (16 weeks x 7 points a week they were rewarded by their 1.75 per game TO Margin. I then divide that by 2 and subtract 56 points from SF's points scored and add 56 points to their points allowed.
5. By doing this (adjusting their PF/PA based on their TO margin) it shows how much a teams turnover margin contributed to their success scoring points and preventing points. Teams that have a high or low turnover margins will most likely regress back the other way, as some luck is involved with turnovers. In my opinion it gives you a better look on how good a team was if all the turnover margins were the same.
The net results for this data, using San Francisco's totals, shows that using the above chart SF's point totals should have resulted in 12.7 wins, close to their 13 actual wins.
However........ after adjusting their numbers based on their amazing turnover ratio they should have only had 9.4 wins using the bottom chart. That means they won 3.6 games last year because of their great turnover margin. Combine a regression towards zero this year with their turnovers, a 1st place schedule and I think it will be hard for San Francisco to win more than 10 games.
PF-PA-projected-actual W-Diff-TO marg-Points +/- pg TO
338 - 322 - Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - 8.0 - 0.5 - -13 - -3.25
386 - 366 - Atlanta Falcons - 8.6 - 10.0 - (1.4) - 8 - 2
374 - 270 - Baltimore Ravens - 11.3 - 12.0 - (0.7) - 2 - 0.5
370 - 436 - Buffalo Bills - 6.3 - 6.0 - 0.3 - 1 - 0.25
404 - 431 - Carolina Panthers - 7.3 - 6.0 - 1.3 - 1 - 0.25
349 - 345 - Chicago Bears - 8.1 - 8.0 - 0.1 - 2 - 0.5
344 - 323 - Cincinnati Bengals - 8.7 - 9.0 - (0.3) - 0 - 0
216 - 309 - Cleveland Browns - 4.4 - 4.0 - 0.4 - 1 - 0.25
361 - 355 - Dallas Cowboys - 8.2 - 8.0 - 0.2 - 4 - 1
333 - 366 - Denver Broncos - 7.0 - 8.0 - (1.0) - -12 - -3
452 - 409 - Detroit Lions - 9.1 - 10.0 - (0.9) - 11 - 2.75
512 - 407 - Green Bay Packers - 10.4 - 15.0 - (4.6) - 24 - 6
367 - 292 - Houston Texans - 10.4 - 10.0 - 0.4 - 7 - 1.75
267 - 406 - Indianapolis Colts - 3.9 - 2.0 - 1.9 - -12 - -3
233 - 339 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.3 - 5.0 - (0.7) - 5 - 1.25
216 - 334 - Kansas City Chiefs - 3.8 - 7.0 - (3.2) - -2 - -0.5
341 - 301 - Miami Dolphins - 9.3 - 6.0 - 3.3 - -6 - -1.5
346 - 443 - Minnesota Vikings - 5.5 - 3.0 - 2.5 - -3 - -0.75
479 - 376 - New England Patriots - 10.5 - 13.0 - (2.5) - 17 - 4.25
553 - 333 - New Orleans Saints - 12.7 - 13.0 - (0.3) - -3 - -0.75
380 - 414 - New York Giants - 7.1 - 9.0 - (1.9) - 7 - 1.75
383 - 357 - New York Jets - 8.7 - 8.0 - 0.7 - -3 - -0.75
367 - 425 - Oakland Raiders - 6.5 - 8.0 - (1.5) - -4 - -1
424 - 300 - Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 - 8.0 - 3.5 - -14 - -3.5
351 - 201 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 13.1 - 12.0 - 1.1 - -13 - -3.25
420 - 363 - San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - 8.0 - 1.5 - -7 - -1.75
324 - 285 - San Francisco 49ers - 9.4 - 13.0 - (3.6) - 28 - 7
305 - 331 - Seattle Seahawks - 7.1 - 7.0 - 0.1 - 8 - 2
203 - 397 - St. Louis Rams - 2.3 - 2.0 - 0.3 - -5 - -1.25
319 - 462 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4.3 - 4.0 - 0.3 - -16 - -4
323 - 319 - Tennessee Titans - 8.1 - 9.0 - (0.9) - 1 - 0.25
316 - 339 - Washington Redskins - 7.3 - 5.0 - 2.3 - -14 - -3.5
Here are some other facts about the data:
13 teams had a negative difference on both charts. That could be from injuries or a higher than normal turnover ratio or winning close games. They are:
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans
14 teams had a positive difference on both charts.
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
5 teams were split. Either having their normal PF/PA or their adjusted PF/PA different on both charts. For example Arizona's top chart, not counting TO's, shows they under performed. The bottom chart showed that after adjusting for their TO margin they actually out performed their record.
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers
St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If anyone has anything else they'd like to share please post it.
PF PA projected actual wins difference
312 - 348 - Arizona Cardinals - 6.8 - 8.0 - (1.2)
402 - 350 - Atlanta Falcons - 9.5 - 10.0 - (0.5)
378 - 266 - Baltimore Ravens - 11.5 - 12.0 - (0.5)
372 - 434 - Buffalo Bills - 6.4 - 6.0 - 0.4
406 - 429 - Carolina Panthers - 7.4 - 6.0 - 1.4
353 - 341 - Chicago Bears - 8.4 - 8.0 - 0.4
344 - 323 - Cincinnati Bengals - 8.7 - 9.0 - (0.3)
218 - 307 - Cleveland Browns - 4.6 - 4.0 - 0.6
369 - 347 - Dallas Cowboys - 8.7 - 8.0 - 0.7
309 - 390 - Denver Broncos - 5.6 - 8.0 - (2.4)
474 - 387 - Detroit Lions - 10.1 - 10.0 - 0.1
560 - 359 - Green Bay Packers - 12.3 - 15.0 - (2.7)
381 - 278 - Houston Texans - 11.2 - 10.0 - 1.2
243 - 430 - Indianapolis Colts - 2.9 - 2.0 - 0.9
243 - 329 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.9 - 5.0 - (0.1)
212 - 338 - Kansas City Chiefs - 3.6 - 7.0 - (3.4)
329 - 313 - Miami Dolphins - 8.5 - 6.0 - 2.5
340 - 449 - Minnesota Vikings - 5.2 - 3.0 - 2.2
513 - 342 - New England Patriots - 12.0 - 13.0 - (1.0)
547 - 339 - New Orleans Saints - 12.5 - 13.0 - (0.5)
394 - 400 - New York Giants - 7.8 - 9.0 - (1.2)
377 - 363 - New York Jets - 8.4 - 8.0 - 0.4
359 - 433 - Oakland Raiders - 6.0 - 8.0 - (2.0)
396 - 328 - Philadelphia Eagles - 10.0 - 8.0 - 2.0
325 - 227 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 11.6 - 12.0 - (0.4)
406 - 377 - San Diego Chargers - 8.8 - 8.0 - 0.8
380 - 229 - San Francisco 49ers - 12.7 - 13.0 - (0.3)
321 - 315 - Seattle Seahawks - 8.2 - 7.0 - 1.2
193 - 407 - St. Louis Rams - 1.9 - 2.0 - (0.1)
287 - 494 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.0 - 4.0 - (1.0)
325 - 317 - Tennessee Titans - 8.3 - 9.0 - (0.7)
288 - 367 - Washington Redskins - 5.5 - 5.0 - 0.5
The second chart adjusts each teams points scored and allowed based on their turnover margin from the year before. I then add those "lost or gained points" into their point totals adjusting them to see how much they benefited from their turnover margin. Here's how I do it for each team. Let's take a look at San Francisco for example.
1. Their turnover ratio was an amazing +28 last year. That's +1.75 turnover EVERY GAME.
2. After doing some research I've comfortable saying every time a team turns the ball over the other team GAINS 4 points on the scoreboard on average.
3. In SF's case they gained 7 points each game by their turnover margin, amazing. (+28 total divided by 16 giving them 1.75 per game margin. I then take 1.75 and multiply that by 4, which equals 7 points a week.
4. In this chart below you'll see I adjust each team's PF/PA based on these numbers giving me a new Projected win total based on points not generated from TO's. SF's total "turnover" points were +112 (16 weeks x 7 points a week they were rewarded by their 1.75 per game TO Margin. I then divide that by 2 and subtract 56 points from SF's points scored and add 56 points to their points allowed.
5. By doing this (adjusting their PF/PA based on their TO margin) it shows how much a teams turnover margin contributed to their success scoring points and preventing points. Teams that have a high or low turnover margins will most likely regress back the other way, as some luck is involved with turnovers. In my opinion it gives you a better look on how good a team was if all the turnover margins were the same.
The net results for this data, using San Francisco's totals, shows that using the above chart SF's point totals should have resulted in 12.7 wins, close to their 13 actual wins.
However........ after adjusting their numbers based on their amazing turnover ratio they should have only had 9.4 wins using the bottom chart. That means they won 3.6 games last year because of their great turnover margin. Combine a regression towards zero this year with their turnovers, a 1st place schedule and I think it will be hard for San Francisco to win more than 10 games.
PF-PA-projected-actual W-Diff-TO marg-Points +/- pg TO
338 - 322 - Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 - 8.0 - 0.5 - -13 - -3.25
386 - 366 - Atlanta Falcons - 8.6 - 10.0 - (1.4) - 8 - 2
374 - 270 - Baltimore Ravens - 11.3 - 12.0 - (0.7) - 2 - 0.5
370 - 436 - Buffalo Bills - 6.3 - 6.0 - 0.3 - 1 - 0.25
404 - 431 - Carolina Panthers - 7.3 - 6.0 - 1.3 - 1 - 0.25
349 - 345 - Chicago Bears - 8.1 - 8.0 - 0.1 - 2 - 0.5
344 - 323 - Cincinnati Bengals - 8.7 - 9.0 - (0.3) - 0 - 0
216 - 309 - Cleveland Browns - 4.4 - 4.0 - 0.4 - 1 - 0.25
361 - 355 - Dallas Cowboys - 8.2 - 8.0 - 0.2 - 4 - 1
333 - 366 - Denver Broncos - 7.0 - 8.0 - (1.0) - -12 - -3
452 - 409 - Detroit Lions - 9.1 - 10.0 - (0.9) - 11 - 2.75
512 - 407 - Green Bay Packers - 10.4 - 15.0 - (4.6) - 24 - 6
367 - 292 - Houston Texans - 10.4 - 10.0 - 0.4 - 7 - 1.75
267 - 406 - Indianapolis Colts - 3.9 - 2.0 - 1.9 - -12 - -3
233 - 339 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.3 - 5.0 - (0.7) - 5 - 1.25
216 - 334 - Kansas City Chiefs - 3.8 - 7.0 - (3.2) - -2 - -0.5
341 - 301 - Miami Dolphins - 9.3 - 6.0 - 3.3 - -6 - -1.5
346 - 443 - Minnesota Vikings - 5.5 - 3.0 - 2.5 - -3 - -0.75
479 - 376 - New England Patriots - 10.5 - 13.0 - (2.5) - 17 - 4.25
553 - 333 - New Orleans Saints - 12.7 - 13.0 - (0.3) - -3 - -0.75
380 - 414 - New York Giants - 7.1 - 9.0 - (1.9) - 7 - 1.75
383 - 357 - New York Jets - 8.7 - 8.0 - 0.7 - -3 - -0.75
367 - 425 - Oakland Raiders - 6.5 - 8.0 - (1.5) - -4 - -1
424 - 300 - Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 - 8.0 - 3.5 - -14 - -3.5
351 - 201 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 13.1 - 12.0 - 1.1 - -13 - -3.25
420 - 363 - San Diego Chargers - 9.5 - 8.0 - 1.5 - -7 - -1.75
324 - 285 - San Francisco 49ers - 9.4 - 13.0 - (3.6) - 28 - 7
305 - 331 - Seattle Seahawks - 7.1 - 7.0 - 0.1 - 8 - 2
203 - 397 - St. Louis Rams - 2.3 - 2.0 - 0.3 - -5 - -1.25
319 - 462 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4.3 - 4.0 - 0.3 - -16 - -4
323 - 319 - Tennessee Titans - 8.1 - 9.0 - (0.9) - 1 - 0.25
316 - 339 - Washington Redskins - 7.3 - 5.0 - 2.3 - -14 - -3.5
Here are some other facts about the data:
13 teams had a negative difference on both charts. That could be from injuries or a higher than normal turnover ratio or winning close games. They are:
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans
14 teams had a positive difference on both charts.
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
5 teams were split. Either having their normal PF/PA or their adjusted PF/PA different on both charts. For example Arizona's top chart, not counting TO's, shows they under performed. The bottom chart showed that after adjusting for their TO margin they actually out performed their record.
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers
St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If anyone has anything else they'd like to share please post it.
