Yes, like any bad show it just keeps coming back, since 1998 the predictions are here for another year, lets first look back at the 2012 predictions, like normal the comments will be in ( ), harp on the correct ones and quickly go by the many wrong items....
thanks
selkirk
2012 Predictions
1.Europe is in the air, so is Japan, questions will come from China growth, India, and Russia, US election year, will not be boring, have cash on hand. Does Europe go flat or -5 (or greater) will make a big difference on China, and the US.
In US the economic news is getting better but there is Europe, and Japan has debt issues also when they stirke, who knows. Have cash and buy a short term etf in Canada, going to add cbo (1-5 corporate to the portfolio. Would underweight high rate debt and long term debt, in 2012.
(The short term bond fund would have made you 4-4.5% not great but better than losses, most of these issues have not put, into next year and the year after that, actually may be 10 years.....slow and steady or trouble).....
2.The Keystone pipeline gets the go ahead in 2012, 2013, okay it has taken 40 months, and was still delayed, I mean someday this will be built. TRP should have handled it better however this shows how difficult it is to start any billion dollar project...this is a pipeline that would secure US energy for decade, and decades, and decades, ect
(this will happen in 2013, in 2012 it got mixed up with the election, and trp was brutal at pr, and a few other items, note : when keystone was being put off there was a trp spokeperson talking in front of a committees, he looked like a mess, he did not understand the process, and look bewildered, dont blame him if you had to be in comittee talking to congres and senate you would be a mess also, hope he gets help. by the way trp went up from low 30 to mid 40s....will go higher but most of gains are over...still a decent hold)
3. Oil is in a range 80-110, for the most part 85-100, oil would go on a run, but there will be continuing conditions on the world wide economy so depressed the value.
(correct, oil did got on a run, but today sits at 89, it will be in this range for some time, maybe a spike down but in this range for the most part.)
4. The cdn. Dollar does not reach 1.05 will trade at .94-1, when people are worried they run to the US dollar, and cdn. Dollar is seen a resource backed so would weaken. .94-1 still not bad.
(correct cdn. dollar is slightly higher 1.01, will also stay in this range, thought it might be just below par.)
5. Gold stays below 2000, trades in a range 1400-1800 for the most part. And stays there.
(correct 1648, gold may be under some presure in the near term but like to have some gold, I mean if there is a fiscal cliff deal there will still be debt issues, the deal will be kicking the can down the road....deal...)
6. Gold stocks stay at low valuations, they are worth owning but would sell covered calls agasint them, premiums are average to very good, and will help greatly with the returns, and the stocks will be you guessed it range bound....it is hard, very hard just to replace production, look at the list of 5+ million ounce mines coming on stream, small list, and getting smaller as time goes by.
(WRONG and CORRECT actually you were better off not owning most golds, especailly the sr. and most mid caps. I own YRI Yamana, and Barrick, YRI did well went up nicely, growing production and winner, abx was a bomb, when you overshoot a mine by 3 billion in costs that will happen, a 6 billion mine is now a 9 billion mine or so....ABX have calls through the year and now a small position, great valuation, but lets face it in the penaty box, yri have call against the stock at 18 and 17 cdn. limited upside in the next 3 months, but still like the stock, would add on pullback.)
7. Far more mergers in the resource sector, gold oil/gas, you can buy production cheaper on the market than by exploration. In some cases not close.
(correct: actually has just started to happen late in the year, especially with jr. oils, just combine them or a sr. buys the producing properties, and leaves the jr. with some exploration properties.)
8. Grpn have stated this before around $20, now 17.65, and believe this is a train wreck, avoid, avoid. Not may have some positions that benefit from the stock going down, so yes I am biased. A train wreck.. by the way wether through options, or shorting a stock always has stops, so companies can rally so make sure losses are small do not want to be taken out by one stock.
(Correct BINGO it went from $20 or $17.65 to 4.79, that is a train wreck, I love GRPN, should note made a good profit from the stock, and yes covered to early, have no position (short ) in this stock....will never be long, never is a long time, never)
Stocks
NICK $12.85 made the list in 2010,and in 2011, will continue to make the list until it stops making 10-15% counting div, or may be next year. Yields 3.11%, would rate higher risk, but well run financial.
+.70% okay pretty flat, including div, stock at 12.46, so with div you eke out a small gain, had a good run last few years, still a hold, but you might just get 3-5%.
ORCL $26.59 this makes the list, for one dumb reason, well....in December we were going to come up with 3 stocks we would own in 2012, for my shareclub. Yes one of my 3 was oracle, did not own it, but was intending to buy it, then the earnings came out, awful, they missed on basically everything.
The stock is cheap if they can reach their estimates, believe downside is $25, however if they announce estimates like the last ones in December this is a value trap, and will go lower, would sell below $24.
(Correct : ORCL $33.93 plus div, gives us a return of 29.228% counting div. not bad, it went on a nice run wrote two calls against the positon that worked out, low side 32-34, believe it could hit 38 next year, depends on the overall market)
WIN Wilan on Toronto is a patent holding company, they tried to take over Mosaid and did not get the company, low 4.85 high 9.56 currently 5.90 cdn. Yield 1.69%. so this stock is very beta two weeks ago was at 5.25-5.50. can sometimes bounce a dollar in a few weeks. They have 1.40-1.60 in cash, will earn roughly .40-.60 a share in earnings. Final numbers depends on the settlements they get from other companies, most of their patent fights do not go to court, they have lawyers. Also hopefully they can acquire other patent portfolios, normally something I would avoid, depends on settlements and future growth on getting more patents... still 10-12PE pays a div, and has cash on hand...so.....
(WRONG -20% counting div. yes its that bad, they loss a few cases in court, these are patent holding company, still they have cash and plenty of settlements, in uncertain times these companies suffer, also a court case pushed this down late in the year, a hold for the aggresive investor....cash on hand and decent earnings (probably ) going forward...hold)
TCK.b 38.49 cdn. TCK 37.66 this is a play on copper, met coal, and zinc, a decent base metal play, now if the economy limps forward then copper does fine, copper will do very well going forward, but it might be a couple of years early, still 2.09% and should make 4.25-4.50 so less than 10X not a bad chance for 1-2% worldwide growth. Would sell after 20% loss.
(Wrong the reason you sell after 20% loss, is that this company went to 26.02 cdn. for a low, I kept most of my position selling covered calls, the calls made me money, but have $35-$36 calls into march.
if you held on you would have loss 5.27%)
SYK 51.43 okay as a nation ages, this is my health play, this is one of the other stock I proflied at my share club, at the time this was 47-48, so has done better than ORCL, anyways I get killed in the most part in health/drug stocks, and avoid them for the most part, however 16 PE yields 1.66%, and should grow 15% year over year, would settle with 10-15%.
(Correct +12.05% counting div, should have been up more, but had some problems in the first half of the year, love the health, medical devices field, hard to screw it up, good long term hold.)
overall not bad, the big loser was win, actually had good gains on the US stocks, was the cdn. stocks dragged down performance, still much greater if you include grpn.
(soon 2013 predictions)
thanks
selkirk
thanks
selkirk
2012 Predictions
1.Europe is in the air, so is Japan, questions will come from China growth, India, and Russia, US election year, will not be boring, have cash on hand. Does Europe go flat or -5 (or greater) will make a big difference on China, and the US.
In US the economic news is getting better but there is Europe, and Japan has debt issues also when they stirke, who knows. Have cash and buy a short term etf in Canada, going to add cbo (1-5 corporate to the portfolio. Would underweight high rate debt and long term debt, in 2012.
(The short term bond fund would have made you 4-4.5% not great but better than losses, most of these issues have not put, into next year and the year after that, actually may be 10 years.....slow and steady or trouble).....
2.The Keystone pipeline gets the go ahead in 2012, 2013, okay it has taken 40 months, and was still delayed, I mean someday this will be built. TRP should have handled it better however this shows how difficult it is to start any billion dollar project...this is a pipeline that would secure US energy for decade, and decades, and decades, ect
(this will happen in 2013, in 2012 it got mixed up with the election, and trp was brutal at pr, and a few other items, note : when keystone was being put off there was a trp spokeperson talking in front of a committees, he looked like a mess, he did not understand the process, and look bewildered, dont blame him if you had to be in comittee talking to congres and senate you would be a mess also, hope he gets help. by the way trp went up from low 30 to mid 40s....will go higher but most of gains are over...still a decent hold)
3. Oil is in a range 80-110, for the most part 85-100, oil would go on a run, but there will be continuing conditions on the world wide economy so depressed the value.
(correct, oil did got on a run, but today sits at 89, it will be in this range for some time, maybe a spike down but in this range for the most part.)
4. The cdn. Dollar does not reach 1.05 will trade at .94-1, when people are worried they run to the US dollar, and cdn. Dollar is seen a resource backed so would weaken. .94-1 still not bad.
(correct cdn. dollar is slightly higher 1.01, will also stay in this range, thought it might be just below par.)
5. Gold stays below 2000, trades in a range 1400-1800 for the most part. And stays there.
(correct 1648, gold may be under some presure in the near term but like to have some gold, I mean if there is a fiscal cliff deal there will still be debt issues, the deal will be kicking the can down the road....deal...)
6. Gold stocks stay at low valuations, they are worth owning but would sell covered calls agasint them, premiums are average to very good, and will help greatly with the returns, and the stocks will be you guessed it range bound....it is hard, very hard just to replace production, look at the list of 5+ million ounce mines coming on stream, small list, and getting smaller as time goes by.
(WRONG and CORRECT actually you were better off not owning most golds, especailly the sr. and most mid caps. I own YRI Yamana, and Barrick, YRI did well went up nicely, growing production and winner, abx was a bomb, when you overshoot a mine by 3 billion in costs that will happen, a 6 billion mine is now a 9 billion mine or so....ABX have calls through the year and now a small position, great valuation, but lets face it in the penaty box, yri have call against the stock at 18 and 17 cdn. limited upside in the next 3 months, but still like the stock, would add on pullback.)
7. Far more mergers in the resource sector, gold oil/gas, you can buy production cheaper on the market than by exploration. In some cases not close.
(correct: actually has just started to happen late in the year, especially with jr. oils, just combine them or a sr. buys the producing properties, and leaves the jr. with some exploration properties.)
8. Grpn have stated this before around $20, now 17.65, and believe this is a train wreck, avoid, avoid. Not may have some positions that benefit from the stock going down, so yes I am biased. A train wreck.. by the way wether through options, or shorting a stock always has stops, so companies can rally so make sure losses are small do not want to be taken out by one stock.
(Correct BINGO it went from $20 or $17.65 to 4.79, that is a train wreck, I love GRPN, should note made a good profit from the stock, and yes covered to early, have no position (short ) in this stock....will never be long, never is a long time, never)
Stocks
NICK $12.85 made the list in 2010,and in 2011, will continue to make the list until it stops making 10-15% counting div, or may be next year. Yields 3.11%, would rate higher risk, but well run financial.
+.70% okay pretty flat, including div, stock at 12.46, so with div you eke out a small gain, had a good run last few years, still a hold, but you might just get 3-5%.
ORCL $26.59 this makes the list, for one dumb reason, well....in December we were going to come up with 3 stocks we would own in 2012, for my shareclub. Yes one of my 3 was oracle, did not own it, but was intending to buy it, then the earnings came out, awful, they missed on basically everything.
The stock is cheap if they can reach their estimates, believe downside is $25, however if they announce estimates like the last ones in December this is a value trap, and will go lower, would sell below $24.
(Correct : ORCL $33.93 plus div, gives us a return of 29.228% counting div. not bad, it went on a nice run wrote two calls against the positon that worked out, low side 32-34, believe it could hit 38 next year, depends on the overall market)
WIN Wilan on Toronto is a patent holding company, they tried to take over Mosaid and did not get the company, low 4.85 high 9.56 currently 5.90 cdn. Yield 1.69%. so this stock is very beta two weeks ago was at 5.25-5.50. can sometimes bounce a dollar in a few weeks. They have 1.40-1.60 in cash, will earn roughly .40-.60 a share in earnings. Final numbers depends on the settlements they get from other companies, most of their patent fights do not go to court, they have lawyers. Also hopefully they can acquire other patent portfolios, normally something I would avoid, depends on settlements and future growth on getting more patents... still 10-12PE pays a div, and has cash on hand...so.....
(WRONG -20% counting div. yes its that bad, they loss a few cases in court, these are patent holding company, still they have cash and plenty of settlements, in uncertain times these companies suffer, also a court case pushed this down late in the year, a hold for the aggresive investor....cash on hand and decent earnings (probably ) going forward...hold)
TCK.b 38.49 cdn. TCK 37.66 this is a play on copper, met coal, and zinc, a decent base metal play, now if the economy limps forward then copper does fine, copper will do very well going forward, but it might be a couple of years early, still 2.09% and should make 4.25-4.50 so less than 10X not a bad chance for 1-2% worldwide growth. Would sell after 20% loss.
(Wrong the reason you sell after 20% loss, is that this company went to 26.02 cdn. for a low, I kept most of my position selling covered calls, the calls made me money, but have $35-$36 calls into march.
if you held on you would have loss 5.27%)
SYK 51.43 okay as a nation ages, this is my health play, this is one of the other stock I proflied at my share club, at the time this was 47-48, so has done better than ORCL, anyways I get killed in the most part in health/drug stocks, and avoid them for the most part, however 16 PE yields 1.66%, and should grow 15% year over year, would settle with 10-15%.
(Correct +12.05% counting div, should have been up more, but had some problems in the first half of the year, love the health, medical devices field, hard to screw it up, good long term hold.)
overall not bad, the big loser was win, actually had good gains on the US stocks, was the cdn. stocks dragged down performance, still much greater if you include grpn.
(soon 2013 predictions)
thanks
selkirk
