New thread for new tennis year. will have nfl and sometimes ufc and other picks in here as well. i do women's tennis almost exclusively, and certain players - top 10, 20, 50. and particular attention to halep, kaplis, witthoeft.
max bet 1000
[c. 000]
BRISBANE / AUCKLAND / SHENZHEN
100/90 3p: pvic, nav, woz. LOSS.
100/52 2p: nav, woz. WIN. [c. -48]
100/10 arad (riske). WIN.
100/61 kerb +4' (azar). LOSS. [c. -138]
wow...azar at full steam. did not see match, but kerb was in mid-season form and got rolled. maybe azar gets back to the top three year, playing like this. next up Sydney, then AUS OPEN. can't wait!
PLAYOFFS & NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ALA-CLEM
1000/910 was (gb). LOSS. [c. -1138]
just like today against dallas, this is a clown line, bro (pk em). i really think buying early in nfl is 90% of the time the wrong way to go, but here i'll buy now cuz i think it'll move to was -3. won like 4-5 weeks in a row on was. the public is still underrating the team. cousins is basically the best qb in the league at the moment. he has good receivers. so long as he has any kind of protection let alone run game he will rack up points against almost anyone. skins problems will come when they start making penalties. it's going to take a very good defense to put them in danger. they are getting better almost by the week. what's more, they have complete buy in and are peaking. i see no way gb keeps up with them, this "pick 'em" number is wholly historical, it has nothing to do with what's going on right now. gb has a totally mediocre run game, no deep passing, a mediocre defense. they're playing in dc, where dc has been passing easily on most teams and winning almost every game. the right number is dc -10 or something that the book cant post for obvious reasons. take advantage before the media bullshit narrative goes from "hey they're not bad" to "hey they're better than all but a handful of teams, and cousins is a top five qb." if you've been watching cousins and dc intensely, as i have, here's the key: EVERYTHING THEY ARE DOING IS REPRODUCIBLE. and not with difficulty. long as they dont commit penalties, have reasonable blocking, have avg running or even slightly below, they will score with anybody. it's just a question of whether their defense plays well. barring injury to cousins, this will be one of the very best teams in the league next year. it already is right now.
1000/435 sea (min). WIN. [c. -703]
sea can win it all, min is ok but you saw bridgewater make a dumb decision to chuck an opposite-hander. it totally changed the momentum from min to gb. an easy win turned into a nail-biter. wilson never does that kind of dumb thing. sea will win. ... other two games, dont know about. cant trust pit ever. cant trust cin. cant trust kc to cover a number. cant trust hou w hoyer at qb. those are better in game. but i think both numbers will move as i think - favoring WAS and SEA. really angry at myself for not betting sea today, but feared a sea letdown. seemed to be some real disinformation circulating this week, and i bought it.
1000/57000 WAS to win super bowl. LOSS. [c. -1703]
[1000/6200 SEA to win super bowl]
that washington number is insane. which team can't was beat? which team is it even close to a 7-pt dog to? i can totally see carolina doing in playoffs what ariz did today. the team that can win is NE - but i dont think they can unless they get edelman back. he's the key. they can't generate enough offense without him, given they have no run game. i really think SEA is the fav, and after that, was as good a bet as anyone.
[1000/16250 kc to win super bowl]
i think i can hedge this. we can extend the concept of "game manager" to coach andy reid. if "game manager" trent dilfer can win super bowl, then andy reid can end up on the winning team too. but we cant call him game manager cuz he sucks at that. so "coach manager." just try not to screw up more than 2 plays a game, reid. you never know. it's truly too bad the jets lost, because they knocked the crap out of was, and they are a GOOD solid team. they really blew it week 17.
good review of skins personnel
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-and-stabilized-as-b99646233z1-364337601.html
max bet 1000
[c. 000]
BRISBANE / AUCKLAND / SHENZHEN
100/90 3p: pvic, nav, woz. LOSS.
100/52 2p: nav, woz. WIN. [c. -48]
100/10 arad (riske). WIN.
100/61 kerb +4' (azar). LOSS. [c. -138]
wow...azar at full steam. did not see match, but kerb was in mid-season form and got rolled. maybe azar gets back to the top three year, playing like this. next up Sydney, then AUS OPEN. can't wait!
PLAYOFFS & NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ALA-CLEM
1000/910 was (gb). LOSS. [c. -1138]
just like today against dallas, this is a clown line, bro (pk em). i really think buying early in nfl is 90% of the time the wrong way to go, but here i'll buy now cuz i think it'll move to was -3. won like 4-5 weeks in a row on was. the public is still underrating the team. cousins is basically the best qb in the league at the moment. he has good receivers. so long as he has any kind of protection let alone run game he will rack up points against almost anyone. skins problems will come when they start making penalties. it's going to take a very good defense to put them in danger. they are getting better almost by the week. what's more, they have complete buy in and are peaking. i see no way gb keeps up with them, this "pick 'em" number is wholly historical, it has nothing to do with what's going on right now. gb has a totally mediocre run game, no deep passing, a mediocre defense. they're playing in dc, where dc has been passing easily on most teams and winning almost every game. the right number is dc -10 or something that the book cant post for obvious reasons. take advantage before the media bullshit narrative goes from "hey they're not bad" to "hey they're better than all but a handful of teams, and cousins is a top five qb." if you've been watching cousins and dc intensely, as i have, here's the key: EVERYTHING THEY ARE DOING IS REPRODUCIBLE. and not with difficulty. long as they dont commit penalties, have reasonable blocking, have avg running or even slightly below, they will score with anybody. it's just a question of whether their defense plays well. barring injury to cousins, this will be one of the very best teams in the league next year. it already is right now.
1000/435 sea (min). WIN. [c. -703]
sea can win it all, min is ok but you saw bridgewater make a dumb decision to chuck an opposite-hander. it totally changed the momentum from min to gb. an easy win turned into a nail-biter. wilson never does that kind of dumb thing. sea will win. ... other two games, dont know about. cant trust pit ever. cant trust cin. cant trust kc to cover a number. cant trust hou w hoyer at qb. those are better in game. but i think both numbers will move as i think - favoring WAS and SEA. really angry at myself for not betting sea today, but feared a sea letdown. seemed to be some real disinformation circulating this week, and i bought it.
1000/57000 WAS to win super bowl. LOSS. [c. -1703]
[1000/6200 SEA to win super bowl]
that washington number is insane. which team can't was beat? which team is it even close to a 7-pt dog to? i can totally see carolina doing in playoffs what ariz did today. the team that can win is NE - but i dont think they can unless they get edelman back. he's the key. they can't generate enough offense without him, given they have no run game. i really think SEA is the fav, and after that, was as good a bet as anyone.
[1000/16250 kc to win super bowl]
i think i can hedge this. we can extend the concept of "game manager" to coach andy reid. if "game manager" trent dilfer can win super bowl, then andy reid can end up on the winning team too. but we cant call him game manager cuz he sucks at that. so "coach manager." just try not to screw up more than 2 plays a game, reid. you never know. it's truly too bad the jets lost, because they knocked the crap out of was, and they are a GOOD solid team. they really blew it week 17.
good review of skins personnel
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-and-stabilized-as-b99646233z1-364337601.html
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