2021 Bowl Buys

[RBD]

Just finished my handicapping work on the eight bowl systems I use, I'll be back with more info, stats, recaps, and strategies after I 'cap the two systems I used during the reg season.
Made one buy just now, Liberty is easy to get at -8' but I think it goes to double digits, so . . .

Update #1:

Recap stuff:
Finished the reg season 11-10, which means dead even w/juice.
Hit the first of my seasonal three goals - "First - Do No Damage" but missed goal number two (show a profit) and three (67%.)
Worse - I had some good stuff to work with. My strongest spot last year, New Play Under, went 34-21 this year, a solid 62%, but I didn't use it enough. I'm not going to make that mistake again in the bowls.

System stuff:
Last year, bowls, Play #1 was 2-2, all Overs. NP was 7-1, 3-0 Ov, 4-1 Un.

My buys went 3-2 on investment plays, 2-2 on TV/action plays.

I'll be back with qualifying plays from my various systems asap.
The Liberty game is from Bowl spot #2, 15-10 (60%) with 14 years of tracking data.

Buys:
Liberty -8'

 

[RBD]

Adding a buy; all buys are investments unless I specify it's a TV/action play.

Buys:
Liberty -8'
C Fla/Fla Ov 56'

 

[Tkj]

Thanks and appreciated all your work RBD, looking forward to your bowls pick.

 

[RBD]

You're welcome Tkj, and thanks for stopping by. Good luck to you in the bowls.


Update: A decent buy on Liberty as the line has gone up; bad decision to buy Fla Ov early as it's dropped.

Here are the plays that qualify.

Play #1 (2-2 last year's bowls, all Overs) has:
Over in Haw, W Virg, Clem, Ok St
Un in Mid Tenn St, NC St, Ohio St

NP (7-1 last year's bowls, 3-0 Ov, 4-1 Un) has:
Ov in Marsh, UCF, Ball St, Geo, Ark, Ok St, Baylor, K St
Un in Utah St

OP has:
Ov in Iowa, Geo
Un in Wyoming, S Car, Tex A&M
I did not have this play last year, so no record.
Reg season was 14-18, Ov 5-6; Un 9-12. These were strong fades but leveled out the last three weeks.

Play #1 and OP spots do not change, no plays added or taken off the board; NP spots may be added or dropped based on line movement.

First problem I see - only one NP Un spot, which is my best play.
That spot, Ore St/Utah St, has been steadily rising so no sense buying it now.

Adding the Toledo spot. Missed the best # so I downgraded to TV/action buy.

Update 12/15: I'm going to buy S Diego St. I think this is a WF (Wrong Fav) spot; waiting to see if I can get +3; if the hook starts to drop from the 2' I'll buy the 2' to +3.

Update 12/16: Adding N Tex, same category as SD St.

Update 12/17: Marsh game no longer qualifies as NP Ov spot.

Buys:
Liberty -8'
C Fla/Fla Ov 56'

TV buys:
Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51'
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120)
N Tex +3

 

[RBD]

Recap:
TV 0-1
Investment 1-0

There were five bowl games played, the dog won every game, three of them SU.
And then came Liberty.

Lost my TV play (Md Ten St Un) in the last minute, but hit my investment on Liberty.
That was the first investment buy of the season that wasn't an Ov/Un so you know I really liked it.
That spot is now 16-10 with 14 years of data tracked.

Had a bit of a miscue here. From post #1 on 12/8:
"My strongest spot last year, New Play Under, went 34-21 this year, a solid 62%, but I didn't use it enough. I'm not going to make that mistake again in the bowls."
"Last year, bowls, NP Un was 4-1 Un[/B]."

Then, on 12/14:
"Only one NP Un spot, which is my best play. That spot, Ore St/Utah St, has been steadily rising so no sense buying it now."

The miscue?
I forgot to stop in with the # I bought it at. As noted, it was my best play. It was at 62% reg season and 4-1 in bowls last year. And it was the only Un I had this year. It was an investment buy, my best play of the bowls. I hope anyone who was looking for a play on that game saw my notes and got in on it with me.

Good move on the early buy notice for S Diego St.
Paid 10 cents more than standard but got +3 on a line that is now -2'

My thinking right now is if UCF/Fla goes back up and surpasses the # I bought, I might buy off of it and shoot for a middle. I still like the play, but as a TV spot only, and I'd like to lock up the nice profit from Liberty and Utah St Un because, unfortunately, I don't have any more similar plays to invest in.

Update 12/21: Added a buy.
With the Wyoming game easily going Ov, I'm gonna ride the next OP Un spot in SC/NC.
I didn't have this play last bowl season so I have no record for it, but it was a good fade in the regular season. It peaked at 5-12, 70%, before winning the last four games to close at 9-12. I was waiting/hoping to see if it reverted back to losing form in the bowl season, and with the first spot, Wyoming/Kent St Un sailing Over I'm getting in on the next spot.

Buys:
Liberty -8' W
C Fla/Fla Ov 56'

TV buys:
Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120)
N Tex +3
S Car/N Car Ov 58

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Records:
Investments plays: 1-0
TV: 1-1

A good W with San Diego St yesterday, not just because it gets back that last minute loss on my first TV play, but because it was one of the games I have circled on my charts as a Wrong Fav.
These are 2-0 now (I didn't use it here but W Kentucky is also circled) and I have a lot of them left, including some marked with an * meaning strong play (SD Sat has an *, W Kent does not.)
So, maybe I have something that I can use for the remainder of the games? Time will tell.

The remaining * plays are: Purdue, Ok St, Iowa, Baylor, and K St.

All of these are based on opening lines, so some teams that were the dog may now be the Fav. I call these FF plays (FF meaning Flop-Flop, which is what we called them at the sports book when we had to call down to the print shop and have them make a late switch on parlay cards when lines changed and early week Dogs flip-flopped to late week Favs.)
For the remaining games, I see Mich St and K St are FF's. I have both games circled as Wrong Favs, and K St also has an * next to it, so I'm buying that spot today.
The line is 2'/3/3' at various houses, there's even a -1' left at South Point. I got -3, not the best # since they opened as dogs, but I'm on it.

And in case anyone missed yesterday's update, here it is:
With the Wyoming game easily going Ov, I'm gonna ride the next OP Un spot in SC/NC.
I didn't have this play last bowl season so I have no record for it, but it was a good fade in the regular season. It peaked at 5-12, 70%, before winning the last four games to close at 9-12. I was waiting/hoping to see if it reverted back to losing form in the bowl season, and with the first spot, Wyoming/Kent St Un sailing Over I'm getting in on the next spot.


Update: Ball State game no longer qualifies as NP Over.

Update 12/28: A Force game qualifies as NP Un


Buys:
Liberty -8' W
C Fla/Fla Ov 56'

TV buys:
Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120) W
N Tex +3
S Car/N Car Ov 58
Kansas St -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1 TV; 0-1 Investment buys

Records:
Investments plays: 1-1
TV: 1-2

Like I said, I should have bought off that Fla Over buy.

Updated record for various spots:
CP Ov 0-2; Un 0-1
NP Ov 0-1; Un 1-0
OP Un 0-1 (this is a Fade spot, so 1-0 on the Fade)

Update: Tenn game now qualifies as NP Un.

Mich St qualifies as a FF spot (see explanation in the post above this one.)
I have these at 2-0, W's with San Diego St and Houston.
Adding Mich St as a buy.

Update, Fri 12/31: Mich St game qualified as a NP Ov; lost; that spot is now 0-2;
Rutgers/WF now qualifies as a NP Un; that spot is 1-2

Buys:
Liberty -8' W
C Fla/Fla Ov 56' L

TV buys:
Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120) W
N Tex +3; L
S Car/N Car Ov 58
Mich St -3 (-120; buy the hook)
Kansas St -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0 TV buys
Records:
Investments plays: 1-1
TV: 3-2

Adding buys today.


Buys:
Liberty -8' W
C Fla/Fla Ov 56' L

TV buys:
Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120) W
N Tex +3; L
S Car/N Car Ov 58 W
Mich St -3 (-120; buy the hook) W
Kansas St -3
Baylor +1

 

[RBD]

Update, Jan 1: After the Mich St W, I have FF (flip flop favs) at 3-0 now.
Ok St qualifies today, adding it.

Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120) W
N Tex +3; L
S Car/N Car Ov 58 W
Mich St -3 (-120; buy the hook) W
Ok St -1
Kansas St -3
Baylor +1

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0, got W's with Ok St and Baylor.
Records:
Investments plays: 1-1
TV: 5-2

The W's with Ok St and Baylor guarantee me a post season profit, not much though because I had no investment buys. But, any profit is better than taking losses.

Only have one play left, K St, and it fits as a FF (Flop Flop Fav) which I have at 4-0 now after the Ok St game, and it also fits as as game I had circled as a Wrong Fav.
From my post on 12/22:
A good W with San Diego St yesterday, not just because it gets back that last minute loss on my first TV play, but because it was one of the games I have circled on my charts as a Wrong Fav.
These are 2-0 now (I didn't use it here but W Kentucky is also circled) and I have a lot of them left, including some marked with an * meaning strong play (SD Sat has an *, W Kent does not.)
So, maybe I have something that I can use for the remainder of the games? Time will tell.
The remaining * plays are: Purdue, Ok St, Iowa, Baylor, and K St.

All my other systems abandoned me with losing records, so it was a good move not using them and jumping onto what was working, the Wrong Fav play noted above, as Purdue, Ok St, and Baylor all covered, Iowa pushed, K St plays tonight.

Do I like K ST at -7 tonight?
No. But I don't have to because I made the buy when they were -3.
So I'm left with a play that fits as a Flip Flop Fav (4-0) and a game I marked as a Wrong Fav (5-0-1) at 4 pts better than the current line. I like my position.

Buys:
Liberty -8' W
C Fla/Fla Ov 56' L

Mid Tenn St/Tol Un 51' L
San Diego St +3 (bought hook; -120) W
N Tex +3; L
S Car/N Car Ov 58 W
Mich St -3 (-120; buy the hook) W
Ok St -1 W
Baylor +1 W
Kansas St -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Got an easy winner with K St.

Final records for the bowls:
Investments buys 1-1
TV buys 6-2

Would've been nice if a few more spots graded out as Investment Buys (or if I bought off that Fla Over like I said I should) but I'll take it.

The problem now is - what do I do until next football season begins??!!
Mostly focus on beating the NBA I guess. Maybe - MLB again?

See ya 'round Forum Land,

RBD