2023 Tournament Buys

[RBD]

I kept charts throughout all of the regular season but none of the plays I tracked had a win or loss percentage that was worth buying or fading. No real edges to take advantage of.

Hopefully postseason will give me something to use.
Going to start out by using a play that had a slight win percentage fading Unders during the regular season.

Three games fit the situational play:
S. Miss/UAB, Yale/Vandy, E. Wash/Wash St.

Personally, I think all three lines are a couple points higher than they should be (especially S. Miss/UAB), and I already missed out on the best number for UAB and Wash St spots, but what the hell, I'll bite, using small money bets as I don't know which way this will go. Just looking for some postseason action/fun.

Buys:
S. Miss/UAB Ov 155
Yale/Vandy Ov (wait to buy, it's dropping, 148 to 147 now)
​​​​​​​E. Wash/Wash St. Ov 151

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 1-2

When are you okay with a 1-2 night?
When you lost the two early games and we're looking at a possible 0-3 if your night game didn't win.

My gut feel yesterday was that all three totals were set higher then they should be. Looking at the results:
UAB game stayed Under by 7 pts.
Yale game stayed Under by 13 pts.
E. Wash game went over by 4 pts.

So I was thisclose to 0-3.
Ended up with 146 on Yale, good move waiting to buy (not that it mattered) and had a bad buy on E. Wash Ov 151 'cuz it closed at 148.

Did have some fun like I was looking for, watching E. Wash because it was close at the end, but minimal damage done, need to improve tonight.

Two games fit the same situational spot, and like yesterday I think both totals are too high.
My numbers come in 5-8 pts lower. So unlike last night I'm going to go with my gut tonight and play them, not fade 'em, and hope for a split at worst case.
Normally, playing regular unit size, I probably play the early game and wait to check results. If the first game wins I'd bank it and lay off the later game, first game loses I'd look to recoup on the later spot. But like I said, I don't have strong stats to work with here, I'm just looking to have some fun and try and pull a little profit out of the postseason, so what the hell I'll play them both.

​​​​Good luck with your plays today...

Buys:
V. Tech/Cincy Un 151'
Utah Valley/ N. Mex Un (wait, lines moving up, 164 now)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-3

Got a W with the New Mexico game, took an L on Cincy.
The Cincy loss wasn't a bad beat, but it was a loss that sucked more than most for two reasons.

First, I had under 151'. They had only 62 in the first half so it was on a great pace for the Under. But they scored 91 in the second half.

Main reason though is I bought it at 8:30 am, at 151'. By 11:30 it was at 154. It landed on 153, could have been a one-point win instead I got a loss by 1'. Bad buy on my part but I didn't see any movement to give me a clue as to buy or wait.

Worst news for me though is I have nothing today. Regular season I track at least six or seven different situational spots, only tracking two in the postseason and nothing fits either one. Day one of the tournament and I got nuttin.
May just pick something on gut feel, will post if I do

Good luck on your play today...