2h Trend Developing

[Nolan Dalla]

For those who play 2Hs:

I have looked at all of yesterday's games (albeit a limited sample, statistically speaking) and noted the following trends:

FAVORITES AHEAD OF THE PACE (covering the line at halftime) went 2-1 in the 2H (against 2H line). Nothing there of note, since that's not enough trials.

However, look at FAVORITES BEHIND THE PACE (not covering the line at halftime -- example TEAM X favored by 20, but only winning by 3 at halftime). They went a dismal 1-7 ATS in 2H yesterday.

Presumably, many bettors think the hyped favorites get a wake-up call in the 1H then will come out and cover the number in the 2H. Not true.

There were five games where the final margin fell within a point of the 2H line. I intentionally did not include these games in the results, since that could skew the results and there is line disparity between books. The 1-7 results come from games where the dog/favorite covered the number by a clear margin.

I would like to go back in past years and track this trend. But, i don't have time to do it today. Might be something to use next year. Anyway, if you are betting 2Hs you should look closely at the dogs.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[dr. freeze]

exactly........i liked Creighton -- a little behind pace -- but definitely in ball game as a 4.5 dog for 2nd half.......and also UIC.....

refs, crowds, momentum get involved in these games and all are on side of Dogs.......

 

[nighthorse]

I noticed this during the conference tournaments last week, but didn't express it as clearly as you just did.

I picked up on that pretty quickly because I'm stubborn...if I cap a fav, I just know I'm right and will bet the 2nd half line on em again to break even.

 

[dr. freeze]

favs have tendency to get tight too especially if dog is still in game 2nd half (Roy Williams syndrome)......also if dog plays with fav in 1st half, they have confidence coming out of break......

 

[Skinar]

Interesting

Interesting

..

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Skinar,
Thanks for taking the time to post this information. Would you mind sharing how many observations you have for the following:

1st half over, second half over - 56%
1st half under, second half under - 78%
Outright winner of first half, covers second half 55%

You may be on to something?
:shrug:

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Skinar:

Nice work.

I'll try to track this if I can in the NBA and see if we can hit close to those percentages.

Well done.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Skinar]

..

 

[Stag]

Skinar-
Great work! I think the place you re looking for is donbest.com.
Go to the odds archive and it will show the halftime line and totals for every game played over the past 6 months! Good luck and I appreciate your findings!

Stag

 

[Stag]

nevermind

nevermind

sorry......they only have FIRST HALF lines there......my mistake

 

[Gregory]

.

 

[Skinar]

..