14-4 so far this season on the system dog plays and my "leap of faith" will get tested today as it has isolated three for Thursday that will definitely test my "intestinal fortitude".
Also like two other plays, here we go.
System Plays
Loyola Chicago + 16 1/2 over Butler
Columbia +21 1/2 over Massachsuetts (superbook you are a prophet)
UTEP +17 1/2 over Nevada
Also like:
Long Beach State +5 over Cal Riverside
Austin Peay -1 over Tenn Martin
Really curious about that Austin Peay game. I really put alot of work and attention on the opening lines and the movement there after to complement or contradict my analysis. Sometimes the movement itself tells a story and sometimes not an obvious story (the obvious story is usually a nightmare). When capping I always take the position that the linesmakers for the most part know exactly what they are doing when setting a line. I believe that most lines are posted in the hopes of getting money on both sides, but i also think there are games where the linesmakers, might know something about a given game and actually post an opening line, trap if you will, that will in fact initiate money being placed heavily on one team.
I sense this Austin Peay game may be one of those situations. Austin Peay has lost every single game on the road this year while Tenn Martin has been unbeatable and undefeated at home....an obvious mismatch of teams with similar talent..right....well i guess wrong, because the line opened up at Austin Peay -3 1/2 and as of this writing the line has swiftly dropped to a pick em in some books. The reaction Vegas wanted...maybe?. Vegas is in the business of building billion dollar casinos not giving away money freely to the public. I may have just overanalyzed the crap out of this game and ignored the obvious, but in my experience the obvious tends to get you in trouble...for better or worse, Im going with Austin Peay as a pickem.
GLTA
DD
Also like two other plays, here we go.
System Plays
Loyola Chicago + 16 1/2 over Butler
Columbia +21 1/2 over Massachsuetts (superbook you are a prophet)
UTEP +17 1/2 over Nevada
Also like:
Long Beach State +5 over Cal Riverside
Austin Peay -1 over Tenn Martin
Really curious about that Austin Peay game. I really put alot of work and attention on the opening lines and the movement there after to complement or contradict my analysis. Sometimes the movement itself tells a story and sometimes not an obvious story (the obvious story is usually a nightmare). When capping I always take the position that the linesmakers for the most part know exactly what they are doing when setting a line. I believe that most lines are posted in the hopes of getting money on both sides, but i also think there are games where the linesmakers, might know something about a given game and actually post an opening line, trap if you will, that will in fact initiate money being placed heavily on one team.
I sense this Austin Peay game may be one of those situations. Austin Peay has lost every single game on the road this year while Tenn Martin has been unbeatable and undefeated at home....an obvious mismatch of teams with similar talent..right....well i guess wrong, because the line opened up at Austin Peay -3 1/2 and as of this writing the line has swiftly dropped to a pick em in some books. The reaction Vegas wanted...maybe?. Vegas is in the business of building billion dollar casinos not giving away money freely to the public. I may have just overanalyzed the crap out of this game and ignored the obvious, but in my experience the obvious tends to get you in trouble...for better or worse, Im going with Austin Peay as a pickem.
GLTA
DD
