3 team parlay 5:1, Skins +7, Ravens -200 ML, Chargers -1 1/2

grey beard

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Skins +7 seems like the right line given Cowboys are 9-1 against the spread this year. Cowboys have played well all season and haven't missed a beat any week after week 1...Skins played them even at home with Cousins 4th quarter interception being the difference. Skins have played very well 3 straight weeks. Cousins playing like last year now with a set of receivers as good an any in the NFL. Cowboys O dominates and they don't make mistakes...so what gives? I see these teams as pretty evenly matched right now...Skins have a better passing deep game, Cowboys a better running game...I think both can get into the 30s tomorrow. Skins corners play very aggressive man to man and don't give a cushion which killed the Ravens last week...I don't see the Cowboys wideouts getting a of separation deep...so Cowboys will have to go to Witten and run the ball a lot..and they'll succeed at that...Skins, on the other hand go deep all the time with at least 4 different receivers...I see the Skins rolling on O tomorrow...I see the Cowboys countering like they did against the Steelers.back and forth they go...so the 7 points seems like 3 too many if you ask me...think the Skins get revenge and hold on 34-31. Put some $$ on ML as well...Cowboys come down to earth in this one.

Ravens ML -200...Cincy w/o AC Green have no threats..they can't run particularly against the Ravens...so Cincy I'd be surprised scores more than 14 points in this one...Ravens always tough at home..great field goal kicker...Flacoo plays much better there...Ravens have one deep threat and a good tight end and Steve Smith is OK...Ravens have at least 20 points in them...against a team I think is on the decline...the cheap shot Bengals demise started in their self destruction in the playoffs...think they end of with a losing record..at least this year Marvin won't be accused of not winning In the playoffs...the chippy, late hitting, dirty D of Cincy is not going to work against the Ravens...although they'll try to intimidate...think the dominant Raven D line with do the intimating...Dalton and gang in for a long day....Ravens 27, Bengals 10

Chargers - 1 1/2 (can't get a ML at the moment)...Chargers strength is a perfect match for Texans strength...Chargers can stop the run....Chargers D line is dominant..maybe best in FB...take away the run, and do the Texans scare anybody? Osweiler is a journeyman QB and he'll be running for his life in 3rd and long....Texans need to keep the score down to win any game...and Rivers is one QB who can put points up...the fact he had a real clunker game last game, makes me like him even more...he rarely has two bad games in a row...Chargers could shut out the Texans....San Diego 30, Texans 7.

And I normally don't like betting on lousy teams or teams in decline but will take a small dabble on the Browns +7...and a bit on the ML too...McKeown is the only QB on the Browns that remotely gives any fear to the D...Griffin/Kessler have a moment here an there but you can't win with either of these guys...McKeown has a great arm and can go deep well if given the time...teams can't load the box when he QBs...Giants aren't as good as their record IMO...they barely win each week..but give them credit for winning...7 points is a lot for a home dog....for Cleveland to win, they need to win the turnover battle...and Eli is known to throw a pic or three....so maybe the stars are lining up this week for the Browns...home dog with their best QB, desperate to win game 1 against a team that wins, but doesn't dominate the line of scrimmage at all with a QB who does turn the ball over...I'll take a flyer with the points and ML...Browns 27, Giants 24....
 

grey beard

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Add Lions -1

Add Lions -1

Line has moved 1 1/2 points toward Minn even after Diggs being announced out for the game. Makes no sense to me. Minny will have to win this game real ugly today as they have few offensive weapons, particularly without Diggs. Minny's defense was suppose to be one of the best...they are top 1/3 but not elite like everyone thought. Bradford, as big a career underachiever as any player ever, has never shown he can rally a team to a win late in a game...Stafford has done so like 4 times this year...so why in the world does it make sense to bet on a team with little offense, a QB who is not clutch against a team in Det who does have some offensive weapons and has a really good and clutch QB? Well it doesn't make sense..forget about the betting trend here...Minny would have to get 4 turnovers to win this one or run back two kickoffs or both...I say they don't even come close..Stafford has protected the ball great this year...he's not the same old wing it Stafford..he's a real QB now...Lions repeat their win vs..Minny...Lions 27 Minny 16.
 

grey beard

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Tease Dolphins +7 with Saints, Chargers, Bears , Falcons,Browns, and Tampa Bay

Tease Dolphins +7 with Saints, Chargers, Bears , Falcons,Browns, and Tampa Bay

Not as crazy about the rest of the card as I was going into Turkey day...but do like the Dolphins to beat the 49ers...Dolphins are a very good team and a sleeper of sorts...really good D, decent receivers and their QB is playing better...their shut down D is as good as any team out there..sure don't think the 49ers have what it takes to beat it...I don't like giving 7 points though...Dolphins QB can have off days and then the Dolphins have to rely on their D to win..so in this one I see maybe a 24-17, 23-16 type game with Dolphins on top...so use the 7 points to get it to a 1/2

Then tease it with

1) Saints -1...Rams new QB looked like a deer in the headlights his first time out...very limited plays called for him on a team that has no plays to begin with...expect the same today..Goff's job is not to lose the game...Rams might get 17 points with their running game and really good D...but Briese is too good not to score more than 17...NO 24 Rams 17.

2) Chargers, which I already have winning outright..but just in case, 7 points gets you to +4 1/2 which is a buffer in case this comes down to a field goal game.

3) Bears +13...sure they stink..like them more with Cutler out to be honest...Tenn a weird team.....seems like they are still kind of young and inexperienced the way they are up and down...13 points is a lot for a home dog with a veteran coach...so I'll take the points and hold my nose on the lousy bears
4) Tampa + 12 1/2...this game is intriguing to me...the Seahawks are dominating again...but Tampa is also showing life after a poor start...both teams have talent...Tampa's D has a front 7 that I think can keep Wilson under control...they are fast and athletic...that's the key to beating the Seahawks...make Wilson human...not easy...but Tampa I think might be able to...an outright win by Tampa wouldn't be a shock...Seahawks 26, Tampa 20.
5) Falcons + 2 1/2...good team with top notch QB versus a fading team with a bad QB...in theory, this could be high scoring shootout...but only the Falcons can score like that..Carson Palmer is extremely ordinary now...totally immobile, takes too long to get rid of it, and has lost something on his throws both accuracy and velocity (i.e., he has played one year too long)....not sure this one has to be teased but why not if you think the Dolphins will win..which I do...Falcons 31, Cardinals 26
6) Already suggested the Browns at 7...add 7 more and make it 14 points vs the Giants...as I said earlier, McKeown is the best of the Browns QBs....Giants had some trouble putting away the Bears last week...Browns very similar situation...think this game is a tight one.

So wheel with the Dophins...keep the Ravens ML already parlayed...
 

grey beard

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Add 6 and 5 team parlays for fun and $$$

Add 6 and 5 team parlays for fun and $$$

Like when a small wager can lead to large payouts...so here's a few I think are worth a small wager

1) 6 team parlay...ML with the Dolphins, Saints, Chargers, Falcons with TB +5 and Cleve +7 pays 13.5 to 1
2) 5 team parlay ...ML with the Dolphins, Saints, Chargers, Falcons with TB +5 pays 7.5 to 1
3) 5 team parlay...ML with the Dolphins, Saints, Chargers, Falcons with Clev +7 pays 6.75 to 1
4) 6 team parlay...ML with the Dolphins, Saints, Chargers, Falcons and Ravens with TB +5 and pays 12 to 1

Obviously I like the 4 ML favorites in each so if any go down, there all done...but that's why we call this gambling...these are all small wagers..
 

grey beard

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Liking both dogs tonight and tomorow night

Liking both dogs tonight and tomorow night

Like the Pack + 3 1/2 and ML....I've been betting against the Pack all season...overrated team with an aging QB..living off the past...but realize, they've been beaten by Tenn, Skins and Cowboys all better teams than the Pack...tonight they have an opponent that isn't better than them...the Eagles play hard and all that..with an exciting and talented QB...but I don't think the Eagles will be able to run at all tonight which puts everything on their QB...who has limited weapons and has to improvise to score points...Eagles really lack weapons on offense and have to win the game other ways...Pack, on the other hand has a really bad defense..at least the linebackers and defensive backs...but that's not as big a problem vs the Eagles...fast receivers and running backs out of the backfield kill the Pack...but that's not really what the Eagles are good at...Rogers, who, I think finally looked like the old Rogers against the SKins, I think has a big game...he looked mobile and was really a threat...Rogers I think has been part of the Pack's dysfunctional personality this season...going public with the coach and teammates...he's always been a "me" guy IMO...but nonetheless, think the Pack's remote hopes of saving their season is tonight..and unlike the last 3 games, they are not playing a superior team...Pack 38, Eagles 21...

Like the Chiefs at 3 1/2...this could easily be a field goal game...both teams play real close to the vest as they say...almost for the final drive...could see a back forth game with maybe a touchdown being the difference at most...and like the Pack above, Chiefs losses aren't as bad as they appear to me...Tampa I think is equal to the Chiefs but that's more a compliment to Tampa than a knock on the Chiefs...Chiefs and Broncos a lot a alike..carefull QBs who try to pick their spots...I give the slight edge to Smith at QB to not make any mistakes...Semean (SP) good for a turnover or too...think the Chiefs keep tis within a field goal...24-21 either way...
 
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