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30 years of the USA TODAY Sports coaches poll: What we've learned
Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY 5 hrs ago
The 2021 season marks the 31st year that USA TODAY Sports has served as host of the Coaches Poll, a stretch encompassing the rise (Clemson) and fall of some dynasties (Nebraska and Southern California) and the rebirth of others (Alabama).
The preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll follows a recent trend. The Crimson Tide are No. 1, followed by Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State. Alabama has now been ranked No. 1 in the Coaches Poll for at least one week in each of the past 14 seasons, extending the program's Football Bowl Subdivision record.
The debut of the preseason poll is a good time to look back at the past 30 seasons and see what we've learned. Across three decades and 482 polls (and counting), here are our takeaways from the Coaches Poll:
Being preseason No. 1 has its benefits
Outside of a seven-year window beginning in 2008, the preseason Coaches Poll has been admirably effective at choosing the best team in college football. Admittedly, the poll hasn't been perfect. Only four times since 1991 has the preseason No. 1 finished the year in the same position: in 1993 (Florida State), 1999 (FSU), 2004 (Southern California) and 2017 (Alabama).
But big misses have been rare ? again, outside of that blip starting in the late 2000s. From 1991-2007, the biggest miscues came in 1994 and 2000, when first Florida and then Nebraska were ranked No. 1 in the debut poll and finished seventh. Across that 17-season span, the preseason No. 1 had an average final ranking of 3.4, with 14 of those teams finishing inside the top five.
The preseason poll was an even more efficient predictor from 2015 through last season, as voters have rallied around three specific teams: Ohio State, preseason No. 1 in 2015; Alabama, No. 1 from 2016-18; and Clemson, No. 1 in 2019 and 2020. The worst final ranking for any preseason No. 1 during this six-season span came from the Buckeyes, who finished fourth.
And then there's 2008-14, when voters had just one near-miss ? Florida finishing third in 2009 ? and six air balls. Georgia finished No. 10 in 2008. Alabama finished No. 11 in 2010. Oklahoma was No. 15 in the final poll for 2011, LSU was No. 12 in 2012, Alabama was No. 8 in 2013 and Florida State finished No. 6 in 2014.
But you'd better be ranked
You don't have to be No. 1, but every national champion of the past 30 years opened that season inside the Top 25. Some were lower than others: Five teams were outside the top 10, including two outside the top 19.
No team came more out of left field than 2010 Auburn, which began the year at No. 23 and didn't climb into the top spot until after beating Oregon for the national title ? to date the only week the Tigers have spent at No. 1 in the Coaches Poll since the 1991 season. Next is Oklahoma, which opened the 2000 season at No. 20.
In more recent history, no eventual national champion has been as overlooked in the preseason as 2013 Florida State, which began at No. 13 before reeling off one of the most dominant regular seasons of the modern era.
The 10 teams above the rest
No. 1 is rarefied air. Just 10 teams in the past 30 seasons have spent 10 or more weeks atop the poll, a who's-who list of juggernaut programs and teams that tell the story of the past three decades of college football.
The list is topped by Alabama, which has nearly doubled its next-closest challenger with 103 weeks in the top spot. In tow is Florida State (52 weeks), which spent only three weeks outside the top eight from the start of the 1991 season through the end of the 2000 season.
Up next: Miami and Ohio State (44 weeks), Southern California (43), Florida (40), Nebraska (39), Oklahoma (34), Clemson (23) and LSU (19). This season marks 20 years since the Cornhuskers' last appearance at No. 1, while all of Clemson's appearances have come since 2015.
The surprising absences from No. 1
Many blueblood programs have made fewer appearances at No. 1 than you might think. For example, Notre Dame, Penn State and Texas have spent four weeks atop the Coaches Poll, one fewer than Mississippi State. Michigan has been No. 1 in just three weeks and, amazingly, Georgia has managed that feat just once.
But there are several successful programs without a single week at No. 1 in the past 30 years despite spending more than 100 weeks inside the Top 25 altogether. To name a few: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah, TCU, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Colorado and Missouri.
The teams we're still waiting on
Fourteen current FBS programs have yet to crack the Top 25, all from the Group of Five conferences: Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Rice, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Troy, UNLV and Western Kentucky.
Many in this group have the excuse of having recently transitioned to the FBS, as in the case of Western Kentucky, or of being christened as a program altogether within the past 15 years, such as South Alabama and UTSA. For example, Georgia Southern was a Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse for decades before joining the FBS in 2014.
The Power Five program with the fewest weeks in the Top 25 is Vanderbilt, with six. Four of those weeks came during the 2008 season, when the Commodores started 5-0 for the first time since 1943 but dropped six of seven to end the regular season.
And the Group of Five program with the most weeks in the Top 25 since 1991 is Boise State, which has appeared in 170 polls, all since 2002.
Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg
Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY 5 hrs ago
The 2021 season marks the 31st year that USA TODAY Sports has served as host of the Coaches Poll, a stretch encompassing the rise (Clemson) and fall of some dynasties (Nebraska and Southern California) and the rebirth of others (Alabama).
The preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll follows a recent trend. The Crimson Tide are No. 1, followed by Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State. Alabama has now been ranked No. 1 in the Coaches Poll for at least one week in each of the past 14 seasons, extending the program's Football Bowl Subdivision record.
The debut of the preseason poll is a good time to look back at the past 30 seasons and see what we've learned. Across three decades and 482 polls (and counting), here are our takeaways from the Coaches Poll:
Being preseason No. 1 has its benefits
Outside of a seven-year window beginning in 2008, the preseason Coaches Poll has been admirably effective at choosing the best team in college football. Admittedly, the poll hasn't been perfect. Only four times since 1991 has the preseason No. 1 finished the year in the same position: in 1993 (Florida State), 1999 (FSU), 2004 (Southern California) and 2017 (Alabama).
But big misses have been rare ? again, outside of that blip starting in the late 2000s. From 1991-2007, the biggest miscues came in 1994 and 2000, when first Florida and then Nebraska were ranked No. 1 in the debut poll and finished seventh. Across that 17-season span, the preseason No. 1 had an average final ranking of 3.4, with 14 of those teams finishing inside the top five.
The preseason poll was an even more efficient predictor from 2015 through last season, as voters have rallied around three specific teams: Ohio State, preseason No. 1 in 2015; Alabama, No. 1 from 2016-18; and Clemson, No. 1 in 2019 and 2020. The worst final ranking for any preseason No. 1 during this six-season span came from the Buckeyes, who finished fourth.
And then there's 2008-14, when voters had just one near-miss ? Florida finishing third in 2009 ? and six air balls. Georgia finished No. 10 in 2008. Alabama finished No. 11 in 2010. Oklahoma was No. 15 in the final poll for 2011, LSU was No. 12 in 2012, Alabama was No. 8 in 2013 and Florida State finished No. 6 in 2014.
But you'd better be ranked
You don't have to be No. 1, but every national champion of the past 30 years opened that season inside the Top 25. Some were lower than others: Five teams were outside the top 10, including two outside the top 19.
No team came more out of left field than 2010 Auburn, which began the year at No. 23 and didn't climb into the top spot until after beating Oregon for the national title ? to date the only week the Tigers have spent at No. 1 in the Coaches Poll since the 1991 season. Next is Oklahoma, which opened the 2000 season at No. 20.
In more recent history, no eventual national champion has been as overlooked in the preseason as 2013 Florida State, which began at No. 13 before reeling off one of the most dominant regular seasons of the modern era.
The 10 teams above the rest
No. 1 is rarefied air. Just 10 teams in the past 30 seasons have spent 10 or more weeks atop the poll, a who's-who list of juggernaut programs and teams that tell the story of the past three decades of college football.
The list is topped by Alabama, which has nearly doubled its next-closest challenger with 103 weeks in the top spot. In tow is Florida State (52 weeks), which spent only three weeks outside the top eight from the start of the 1991 season through the end of the 2000 season.
Up next: Miami and Ohio State (44 weeks), Southern California (43), Florida (40), Nebraska (39), Oklahoma (34), Clemson (23) and LSU (19). This season marks 20 years since the Cornhuskers' last appearance at No. 1, while all of Clemson's appearances have come since 2015.
The surprising absences from No. 1
Many blueblood programs have made fewer appearances at No. 1 than you might think. For example, Notre Dame, Penn State and Texas have spent four weeks atop the Coaches Poll, one fewer than Mississippi State. Michigan has been No. 1 in just three weeks and, amazingly, Georgia has managed that feat just once.
But there are several successful programs without a single week at No. 1 in the past 30 years despite spending more than 100 weeks inside the Top 25 altogether. To name a few: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah, TCU, Virginia Tech, UCLA, Oklahoma State, Colorado and Missouri.
The teams we're still waiting on
Fourteen current FBS programs have yet to crack the Top 25, all from the Group of Five conferences: Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Rice, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, Troy, UNLV and Western Kentucky.
Many in this group have the excuse of having recently transitioned to the FBS, as in the case of Western Kentucky, or of being christened as a program altogether within the past 15 years, such as South Alabama and UTSA. For example, Georgia Southern was a Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse for decades before joining the FBS in 2014.
The Power Five program with the fewest weeks in the Top 25 is Vanderbilt, with six. Four of those weeks came during the 2008 season, when the Commodores started 5-0 for the first time since 1943 but dropped six of seven to end the regular season.
And the Group of Five program with the most weeks in the Top 25 since 1991 is Boise State, which has appeared in 170 polls, all since 2002.
Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg
