I generally like to get over key numbers in the NFL, and although I didn't get over 17, 21 or 24 (nowhere near as important as key numbers 3, 7, 10 and 14), I did get over 14 with Dallas. And besides, my first 3 selections I like to cover the real pointspread, anyway, so I am ok with not getting over 21, 24 and 17, respectively with those 3. Let's try this to close out this week:
4-team teaser, laying $540 to win $450 (5dimes, ties lose)
Detroit +20
Miami + 24
Arizona +16.5
Dallas +15
Reasoning:
1) 0-4 teams can be dangerous to go against, and in fact, any winless team after Week 4 can be dangerous to go against, as we are down to just 4 winless teams and 3 undefeated teams. Everyone knows the 1973 Dolphins are the only undefeated team in NFL history, but on the other side of the coin, the 1976 Buccaneers team are the only winless (non-strike season) team since 1960. I watch most of these games on replay on DTV every week and Detroit simply isn't as bad as their record. Turnovers and penalties have killed this team. They are tied for 4th worst in the league in plus/minus in giveaways/takeaways and have the second most penalty yards in the league. Winless teams are always motivated for that first win so I have to take Detroit here and hope they take care of their turnovers/penalties issues for one week.
2) This is simply a classic situation that I cannot ignore. The Patriots off a huge blowout win at Cincy last week and Miami off an embarrassing loss at Houston. New England proved last week they can blowout anyone, but this is the season for Miami and I expect them to show up here.
3) Another situation that works well if you are not dealing with horrible teams in a bounce-back role. Kansas City demolished SF last week, 41-0, while Arizona got trounced at Atlanta 32-10. Arizona is not as bad as they are showing and this game is pretty much their season, too. People had high expectations for the Cards and this should be a close game.
4) The Eagles have burned me many times in the past going against them with these teasers. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles win this game, but Philadelphia is banged up and Dallas is healthy and I just don't see a blowout. The Eagles had a chance to blowout the Giants in Week 2 and choked that one away. They have lost 7 straight division games and have not been as good at Home the last 2 seasons unless they are playing teams like Green Bay. I could be wrong, but I don't see how Dallas cannot keep this within 2 TDs with TO.
Week 6: 4-1, +$300
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
4-team teaser, laying $540 to win $450 (5dimes, ties lose)
Detroit +20
Miami + 24
Arizona +16.5
Dallas +15
Reasoning:
1) 0-4 teams can be dangerous to go against, and in fact, any winless team after Week 4 can be dangerous to go against, as we are down to just 4 winless teams and 3 undefeated teams. Everyone knows the 1973 Dolphins are the only undefeated team in NFL history, but on the other side of the coin, the 1976 Buccaneers team are the only winless (non-strike season) team since 1960. I watch most of these games on replay on DTV every week and Detroit simply isn't as bad as their record. Turnovers and penalties have killed this team. They are tied for 4th worst in the league in plus/minus in giveaways/takeaways and have the second most penalty yards in the league. Winless teams are always motivated for that first win so I have to take Detroit here and hope they take care of their turnovers/penalties issues for one week.
2) This is simply a classic situation that I cannot ignore. The Patriots off a huge blowout win at Cincy last week and Miami off an embarrassing loss at Houston. New England proved last week they can blowout anyone, but this is the season for Miami and I expect them to show up here.
3) Another situation that works well if you are not dealing with horrible teams in a bounce-back role. Kansas City demolished SF last week, 41-0, while Arizona got trounced at Atlanta 32-10. Arizona is not as bad as they are showing and this game is pretty much their season, too. People had high expectations for the Cards and this should be a close game.
4) The Eagles have burned me many times in the past going against them with these teasers. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles win this game, but Philadelphia is banged up and Dallas is healthy and I just don't see a blowout. The Eagles had a chance to blowout the Giants in Week 2 and choked that one away. They have lost 7 straight division games and have not been as good at Home the last 2 seasons unless they are playing teams like Green Bay. I could be wrong, but I don't see how Dallas cannot keep this within 2 TDs with TO.
Week 6: 4-1, +$300
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
