Found one I like tonight...............................
4 Units New York Mets (-107)
Once again all of my parameters point in one direction and I can get that team as a very small favourite.
The Los Angeles Angels have been a fine team this year, a full 10 games over .500, and 20-14 on the road. They are 5-5 in their last 10. The Mets are just 1 game above .500, but are 21-14 at home and also 5-5 in their L10.
I looked a little closer and found these tidbits.....................
Yes, the Mets have dropped their last 3, but were 8-3 the previous 11 games, so they have played well over the last two weeks.
This is the 11th game of a long east coast swing for LA, so they have to be getting tired.
After a loss, the Angels win 76% of their following games, but after a win (like last night) the Angels only win 44.1% of the following games.
And this game also features my 2/3.....W/L streaks that I talked about last week. Once again if we look at this morning's standings we will see that 25 of 30 teams have a streak (wins or losses) of 3 or less. What that means is that when a team gets to 2 or 3 in a row (wins or losss) it is mathematically probable that the streak will end. When we get a team with 2 or 3 straight wins (the Angels today) playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses (the Mets today) , the math is even stonger that the streaks will end.
Advantage: New York Mets
On the mound, we have lefthander Jarrod Washburn for the Angels. YTD he is 3-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .306 BAA. Los Angeles has lost his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 6. In those 6 outings, Washburn has been bad................5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
He has only 5 career innings pitched vs the Mets and he shows 11.81 ERA for that limited time. Right handed hitters have drilled him for a .317 BAA so far this year, and last time the Mets faced a left handed starter, they only had one left handed hitter in the lineup.......Cliff Floyd, who has a .515 slugging % against L's.
For New York, righthander Kris Benson takes the ball. YTD he is 4-2, 3.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .230 BAA. Pretty good. In home games, his numbers are even better....................3-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .200 BAA. The Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts and are 5-2 in his 7 starts YTD. He started the year with 2 so-so outings , but since then his ERA is 2.76 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.98.
In 8 career innings vs the Angels his ERA is 1.13.
Advantage: New York Mets
When I look at offence in these interleague games, I know that it is almost apples to oranges, with numbers being skwed by the DH rule, so I prefer to look at how teams hit Lefties vs Righties, as that will be a constant, no matter what rules are in play.
The Angels numbers in Batting Average, On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage are almost identical when we compare their overall numbers against their numbers vs righthanders. They do go up a smidgeon (for example OBP goes up from .316 to .327) but it really isn't enough in my books to be considered relevant.
But for the Mets, let's see what I found.....................
NY Mets overall BA......263............vs L.....302
overall OBP.................330............vs L.....357
overall Slugging %.......419............vs L.....490
Advantage: New York Mets
With all of my parameters pointing at one team and that team playing at home as a very small favourite, it's a play.
4 units New York Mets (-107)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
4 Units New York Mets (-107)
Once again all of my parameters point in one direction and I can get that team as a very small favourite.
The Los Angeles Angels have been a fine team this year, a full 10 games over .500, and 20-14 on the road. They are 5-5 in their last 10. The Mets are just 1 game above .500, but are 21-14 at home and also 5-5 in their L10.
I looked a little closer and found these tidbits.....................
Yes, the Mets have dropped their last 3, but were 8-3 the previous 11 games, so they have played well over the last two weeks.
This is the 11th game of a long east coast swing for LA, so they have to be getting tired.
After a loss, the Angels win 76% of their following games, but after a win (like last night) the Angels only win 44.1% of the following games.
And this game also features my 2/3.....W/L streaks that I talked about last week. Once again if we look at this morning's standings we will see that 25 of 30 teams have a streak (wins or losses) of 3 or less. What that means is that when a team gets to 2 or 3 in a row (wins or losss) it is mathematically probable that the streak will end. When we get a team with 2 or 3 straight wins (the Angels today) playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses (the Mets today) , the math is even stonger that the streaks will end.
Advantage: New York Mets
On the mound, we have lefthander Jarrod Washburn for the Angels. YTD he is 3-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .306 BAA. Los Angeles has lost his last 3 starts and 5 of his last 6. In those 6 outings, Washburn has been bad................5.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
He has only 5 career innings pitched vs the Mets and he shows 11.81 ERA for that limited time. Right handed hitters have drilled him for a .317 BAA so far this year, and last time the Mets faced a left handed starter, they only had one left handed hitter in the lineup.......Cliff Floyd, who has a .515 slugging % against L's.
For New York, righthander Kris Benson takes the ball. YTD he is 4-2, 3.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .230 BAA. Pretty good. In home games, his numbers are even better....................3-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .200 BAA. The Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts and are 5-2 in his 7 starts YTD. He started the year with 2 so-so outings , but since then his ERA is 2.76 and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.98.
In 8 career innings vs the Angels his ERA is 1.13.
Advantage: New York Mets
When I look at offence in these interleague games, I know that it is almost apples to oranges, with numbers being skwed by the DH rule, so I prefer to look at how teams hit Lefties vs Righties, as that will be a constant, no matter what rules are in play.
The Angels numbers in Batting Average, On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage are almost identical when we compare their overall numbers against their numbers vs righthanders. They do go up a smidgeon (for example OBP goes up from .316 to .327) but it really isn't enough in my books to be considered relevant.
But for the Mets, let's see what I found.....................
NY Mets overall BA......263............vs L.....302
overall OBP.................330............vs L.....357
overall Slugging %.......419............vs L.....490
Advantage: New York Mets
With all of my parameters pointing at one team and that team playing at home as a very small favourite, it's a play.
4 units New York Mets (-107)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
