Hello everyone...........been almost 3 weeks since my last post as the real job has gotten very busy with the hot weather..............I sell beer for a living, so the hot summer months keep me going !!! Found one later this afternoon where all my parameters point in the same direction and I can get the team I like as a nice $$$$ dog.
4 Units Arizona(+127) at 4:00 PM EST
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We have Brad Halsey on the mound today for the Arizona Diamondbacks as they finish up a 4 game series at San Diego. Tim Stauffer takes the ball for the Padres. Let's start by looking at these two pitchers.
For the D'Backs, Halsey is 5-7 YTD with an ERA of 4.26, a WHIP of 1.46 and a BAA of .309. Arizona is 8-9 in all his starts TY. Basically, what you see is what you will get with Halsey. He rarely is dominant, and also rarely gets clobbered. He keeps his team in the game. He does have a very good ratio of 3:1 for strikeouts to BB, and has also given up only 4 homeruns in his last 60 IP.....not bad, not bad. In his career, he has a 2.08 ERA against SD with a sparkling WHIP of 1.15 and a BAA of just .241. Likie I said, he will keep his team in the game.
For the Padres, we have rookie Tim Stauffer taking the ball. YTD he is 3-4, with an ERA of 4.55, a WHIP of 1.39 and BAA of .270. San Diego is 6-5 in all his starts this year. But, let's look a little closer.......................
In his last 6 starts, San Diego is just 2-4, and remember, this is a first place team. In his last 5 starts, his WHIP is a lofty 1.57 and his ERA is a bloated 5.34. Hmmmmmm.
I also spent a lot of time looking at the bullpens, as they will be a big factor today. Yes, Trevor Hoffman is very good, and if the Padres get the ball to him with the lead, then Arizona will not be in good shape. I'm betting that doesn't happen today though. But the D'Backs pen has actually been pretty good lately as well. Almanza, Valverde and Bruney................1 leftie and righties.............all have ERA's of 0.00 in their last 3 outings. Interesting.
Looking at the big picture:
Pitching Advantage: Arizona
Let's look at the offence now.
Arizona YTD numbers vs all pitchers when compared to just R's (like Stauffer) are not that different. BA is virtually the same as is OBP. But the SL% goes up quite a bit.......from .421 vs all to .440 against just R's.
San Diego's numbers go down in all 3 categories.
BA overall......262...........vs L's......246
OBP overall......338.........vs L's......335
SL% overall.....408..........vs L's.....369
Arizona's numbers in day games also are much better than SD's.
BA........270 for Ariz......................250 for SD
OBP......347 for Ariz......................328 for SD
SL%.....440 for Ariz.....................426 for SD.
Batting Advantage: Arizona
Let's finish by looking at how the teams themselves have been performing.
San Diego started the year on fire at home going 18-4 in their first 22 home games. Did you know they are actually under .500 at home since? Yep, they are just 11-13 at home since June 1st. And those 24 games cover 8 series where only 2 of the 8 teams have winning records.
Arizona isn't a powerhouse by any means, but they aren't a pushover either. They are 22-24 YTD on the road, and have won 3 of their last 5 road games, and 5 of their last 9.
In 4 game series this year (as this series is), Arizona is 4-1 in those 4th games,while San Diego is 1-4 in their 4th games.
This game also features my W/L parameter. When we look at the standings this morning, we see that 1 out of 30 teams has a winning OR losing streak of more than 3 games. That means that most winning or losing streaks end before hitting 4 games. When we have a team with 2 or 3 W's in a row (San Diego today) playing a team with 2 or 3 losses in a row(Arizona today), the mathematical chances of both streaks ending is very high.
Advantage: Arizona
With all my parameters pointing to one team, and that team being a nice $$$$$ dog, it's a play.
4 Units Arizona(+127)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
4 Units Arizona(+127) at 4:00 PM EST
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We have Brad Halsey on the mound today for the Arizona Diamondbacks as they finish up a 4 game series at San Diego. Tim Stauffer takes the ball for the Padres. Let's start by looking at these two pitchers.
For the D'Backs, Halsey is 5-7 YTD with an ERA of 4.26, a WHIP of 1.46 and a BAA of .309. Arizona is 8-9 in all his starts TY. Basically, what you see is what you will get with Halsey. He rarely is dominant, and also rarely gets clobbered. He keeps his team in the game. He does have a very good ratio of 3:1 for strikeouts to BB, and has also given up only 4 homeruns in his last 60 IP.....not bad, not bad. In his career, he has a 2.08 ERA against SD with a sparkling WHIP of 1.15 and a BAA of just .241. Likie I said, he will keep his team in the game.
For the Padres, we have rookie Tim Stauffer taking the ball. YTD he is 3-4, with an ERA of 4.55, a WHIP of 1.39 and BAA of .270. San Diego is 6-5 in all his starts this year. But, let's look a little closer.......................
In his last 6 starts, San Diego is just 2-4, and remember, this is a first place team. In his last 5 starts, his WHIP is a lofty 1.57 and his ERA is a bloated 5.34. Hmmmmmm.
I also spent a lot of time looking at the bullpens, as they will be a big factor today. Yes, Trevor Hoffman is very good, and if the Padres get the ball to him with the lead, then Arizona will not be in good shape. I'm betting that doesn't happen today though. But the D'Backs pen has actually been pretty good lately as well. Almanza, Valverde and Bruney................1 leftie and righties.............all have ERA's of 0.00 in their last 3 outings. Interesting.
Looking at the big picture:
Pitching Advantage: Arizona
Let's look at the offence now.
Arizona YTD numbers vs all pitchers when compared to just R's (like Stauffer) are not that different. BA is virtually the same as is OBP. But the SL% goes up quite a bit.......from .421 vs all to .440 against just R's.
San Diego's numbers go down in all 3 categories.
BA overall......262...........vs L's......246
OBP overall......338.........vs L's......335
SL% overall.....408..........vs L's.....369
Arizona's numbers in day games also are much better than SD's.
BA........270 for Ariz......................250 for SD
OBP......347 for Ariz......................328 for SD
SL%.....440 for Ariz.....................426 for SD.
Batting Advantage: Arizona
Let's finish by looking at how the teams themselves have been performing.
San Diego started the year on fire at home going 18-4 in their first 22 home games. Did you know they are actually under .500 at home since? Yep, they are just 11-13 at home since June 1st. And those 24 games cover 8 series where only 2 of the 8 teams have winning records.
Arizona isn't a powerhouse by any means, but they aren't a pushover either. They are 22-24 YTD on the road, and have won 3 of their last 5 road games, and 5 of their last 9.
In 4 game series this year (as this series is), Arizona is 4-1 in those 4th games,while San Diego is 1-4 in their 4th games.
This game also features my W/L parameter. When we look at the standings this morning, we see that 1 out of 30 teams has a winning OR losing streak of more than 3 games. That means that most winning or losing streaks end before hitting 4 games. When we have a team with 2 or 3 W's in a row (San Diego today) playing a team with 2 or 3 losses in a row(Arizona today), the mathematical chances of both streaks ending is very high.
Advantage: Arizona
With all my parameters pointing to one team, and that team being a nice $$$$$ dog, it's a play.
4 Units Arizona(+127)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
