Thanks for the kudos yesterday fellas. Much appreciated!!
Found another one today that fits all my parameters but it's not for the faint of heart.
4 Units Tampa Bay (+172)
Yikes !!! The lowly Devil Rays????? The truth is that I was very surprised as I capped the games this morning and every angle I looked at for this one kept me intrigued. So, I kept digging and ya know what..............this one looks good to me.
Let's start by looking at Florida. They are 37-34 YTD, that includes a 16-19 mark on the road. But, did you know that over their last 25 on the road, they are 9-16 (.360 winning %) ? This is the final game of a long 12 game road trip, and with 4 at home against division rival Atlanta starting tomorrow night, this is a classic let-down spot. Possibly even a spot for Jack McKeon to rest some key starters.
Tampa Bay is a poor 26-49 YTD, but have been competitive at home all year at 18-20. And they have played everyone tough over the last two weeks, going 6-7 against teams that are a combined 9 games over .500.
This game also features my won/loss parameter. Once again, a check of the standings this morning shows that 24/30 teams have W or L streaks of 3 or less. Which means that basically 80% of streaks (wins or losses) end before reaching 4. When we have a team with 2 or 3 straight wins (Florida today) playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses (Tampa today) then the correlation is even higher.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
On the mound for Florida today is righthander A.J. Burnett. YTD he is 4-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .251 BAA. Not bad, not bad. The Marlins are 7-7 in all his starts.
But let's dig a little deeper. He has struggled in his last 3 starts, with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.55...................lots of baserunners. The Marlins are 3-6 in his last 9 starts and in two of those 3 wins, they have scored 15 and 12 runs.
For the Rays, Seth McClung returns from the minors to take the ball. He has poor numbers from 18.2 IP of relief earlier in the year, but was 2-0 in the minors adjusting to a starting role.
He is a big kid (6'6 and 235 lbs) who like Colon yesterday, seems better suited to stretching his arm in a starting role.
He is also a new face to the veteran Florida team, and like I mentioned yesterday, more often than not, a veteran team will struggle against a pitcher they have never seen before. (Footnote: McClung has 1/3 IP in his career vs Fla)
Advantage: Tampa Bay
When we look at batting, the numbers are subtle but unmistakeable.
Florida's offensive #'s go down slightly against righthanders in all 3 of my main categories (BA, OBP, SL%), while Tampa's #'s go up in 2 out of the 3 categories.
The Marlins have scored a lot of runs in SOME of their games recently, but have been inconsistent at best. They have been shutout in 2 of their last 5, and 3 of their last 10, and have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of thier last 12.
Scoring runs hasn't been a problem for Tampa..............they are averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last 10.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
All of my parameters point to the home team and they are getting some big $$$$$. It's a play.
4 Units Tampa Bay (+172)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
Found another one today that fits all my parameters but it's not for the faint of heart.
4 Units Tampa Bay (+172)
Yikes !!! The lowly Devil Rays????? The truth is that I was very surprised as I capped the games this morning and every angle I looked at for this one kept me intrigued. So, I kept digging and ya know what..............this one looks good to me.
Let's start by looking at Florida. They are 37-34 YTD, that includes a 16-19 mark on the road. But, did you know that over their last 25 on the road, they are 9-16 (.360 winning %) ? This is the final game of a long 12 game road trip, and with 4 at home against division rival Atlanta starting tomorrow night, this is a classic let-down spot. Possibly even a spot for Jack McKeon to rest some key starters.
Tampa Bay is a poor 26-49 YTD, but have been competitive at home all year at 18-20. And they have played everyone tough over the last two weeks, going 6-7 against teams that are a combined 9 games over .500.
This game also features my won/loss parameter. Once again, a check of the standings this morning shows that 24/30 teams have W or L streaks of 3 or less. Which means that basically 80% of streaks (wins or losses) end before reaching 4. When we have a team with 2 or 3 straight wins (Florida today) playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses (Tampa today) then the correlation is even higher.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
On the mound for Florida today is righthander A.J. Burnett. YTD he is 4-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .251 BAA. Not bad, not bad. The Marlins are 7-7 in all his starts.
But let's dig a little deeper. He has struggled in his last 3 starts, with an ERA of 4.95 and a WHIP of 1.55...................lots of baserunners. The Marlins are 3-6 in his last 9 starts and in two of those 3 wins, they have scored 15 and 12 runs.
For the Rays, Seth McClung returns from the minors to take the ball. He has poor numbers from 18.2 IP of relief earlier in the year, but was 2-0 in the minors adjusting to a starting role.
He is a big kid (6'6 and 235 lbs) who like Colon yesterday, seems better suited to stretching his arm in a starting role.
He is also a new face to the veteran Florida team, and like I mentioned yesterday, more often than not, a veteran team will struggle against a pitcher they have never seen before. (Footnote: McClung has 1/3 IP in his career vs Fla)
Advantage: Tampa Bay
When we look at batting, the numbers are subtle but unmistakeable.
Florida's offensive #'s go down slightly against righthanders in all 3 of my main categories (BA, OBP, SL%), while Tampa's #'s go up in 2 out of the 3 categories.
The Marlins have scored a lot of runs in SOME of their games recently, but have been inconsistent at best. They have been shutout in 2 of their last 5, and 3 of their last 10, and have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of thier last 12.
Scoring runs hasn't been a problem for Tampa..............they are averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last 10.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
All of my parameters point to the home team and they are getting some big $$$$$. It's a play.
4 Units Tampa Bay (+172)
Good luck out there today,
Tiger
