Thanks for the kind words on last night's post everyone. It's much appreciated !!
Found another one I like tonight......................
4 Units LA Angels(+124)
At first glance, this play may seem a little suicidal. I mean, this is a bet against the Chicago White Sox, who have the best record in baseball at 35-17. But let's have a closer look....................
Sure the Chisox are 35-17, but after that torrid start over the first 5 weeks of the season, they actually are under .500 (10-11) since May 9th. Hmmmm. On the flip side, the Angels started the season 7-7, and then got hot with a record of 23-15(.605) since, including a sparkling 17-11 mark in May. So Anaheim is the hotter team.
Let's look at tonight's starters. For Chicago, it's Jose Contreras. His YTD numbers aren't bad.............2W- 2L, 3.30 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP.
But again, let's break that down a little bit...........In his 1st 6 starts, he was very good, sporting a fine 2.60 ERA. But in his last 4 starts, his ERA has been 4.30, more than a run and a half higher. It looks to me like he is returning to his "normal" form after a good start................His ERA's in the last two seasons have been 5.30 and 5.64. He appears headed towards his career numbers. He is also susceptible to the long ball, giving up 8 dingers in 60 IP YTD. He is 0-2 career vs the Angels with a 9.00 ERA, albeit in only a pair of games.
Chicago has lost 3 of his last 4 starts and 4 of his last 6.
For Los Angeles, Paul Byrd takes to the hill tonight. YTD he is 4-4, 4.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. But, where Contreras started fast and has faded, Byrd has been the opposite...............after a so-so start, he has pitched much better. Over his last 3 starts, he has a fine 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Pretty solid numbers. He is also 4-2 career vs the Chisox, and has only given up 4 long balls in 65 IP.
His career numbers indicate that lefties will hit him, but Chicago only had 3 lefties in their lineup last night against righthander Lackey, including switch-hitter Carl Everett, who is only hitting .193 against righthanders this year. Byrd's career WHIP vs righties is a very good 1.06.
The Angels have won 4 of his last 5 starts and 6 of his last 8.
Oh ya, Francisco Rodriguez is back tonight as well, so another advantage on the pitching side to LA.
On the batting side of things, I found it interesting that Chicago hits righthanders far worse than lefties, their BA, OBP,and SL% are all far lower vs R, while the Angels again, are the opposite. They hit righties far better than lefties. Pretty significant numbers since both starters are righthanders tonight. Again advantage to LA.
The last parameter is one I have always had success with. If you check the morning standings every day, you will see very few teams with a winning, or losing, streak more than 3 games long. Today, there are only 7 of 30 teams with a streak of more than 3 games. What that means is that when teams get a 2 or 3 game streak, it is mathematically probable that it will stop before reaching 4. When you get a team with 2 or 3 straight wins playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses, the math makes it even stronger, and that's what we have tonight. .......Chicago has won 2 and Los Angeles has lost 2.
So, with advantages in pitching, batting, and more than one intangible, it's a solid $$$$ dog.
LA Angels (+124) for 4 units
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
Found another one I like tonight......................
4 Units LA Angels(+124)
At first glance, this play may seem a little suicidal. I mean, this is a bet against the Chicago White Sox, who have the best record in baseball at 35-17. But let's have a closer look....................
Sure the Chisox are 35-17, but after that torrid start over the first 5 weeks of the season, they actually are under .500 (10-11) since May 9th. Hmmmm. On the flip side, the Angels started the season 7-7, and then got hot with a record of 23-15(.605) since, including a sparkling 17-11 mark in May. So Anaheim is the hotter team.
Let's look at tonight's starters. For Chicago, it's Jose Contreras. His YTD numbers aren't bad.............2W- 2L, 3.30 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP.
But again, let's break that down a little bit...........In his 1st 6 starts, he was very good, sporting a fine 2.60 ERA. But in his last 4 starts, his ERA has been 4.30, more than a run and a half higher. It looks to me like he is returning to his "normal" form after a good start................His ERA's in the last two seasons have been 5.30 and 5.64. He appears headed towards his career numbers. He is also susceptible to the long ball, giving up 8 dingers in 60 IP YTD. He is 0-2 career vs the Angels with a 9.00 ERA, albeit in only a pair of games.
Chicago has lost 3 of his last 4 starts and 4 of his last 6.
For Los Angeles, Paul Byrd takes to the hill tonight. YTD he is 4-4, 4.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. But, where Contreras started fast and has faded, Byrd has been the opposite...............after a so-so start, he has pitched much better. Over his last 3 starts, he has a fine 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Pretty solid numbers. He is also 4-2 career vs the Chisox, and has only given up 4 long balls in 65 IP.
His career numbers indicate that lefties will hit him, but Chicago only had 3 lefties in their lineup last night against righthander Lackey, including switch-hitter Carl Everett, who is only hitting .193 against righthanders this year. Byrd's career WHIP vs righties is a very good 1.06.
The Angels have won 4 of his last 5 starts and 6 of his last 8.
Oh ya, Francisco Rodriguez is back tonight as well, so another advantage on the pitching side to LA.
On the batting side of things, I found it interesting that Chicago hits righthanders far worse than lefties, their BA, OBP,and SL% are all far lower vs R, while the Angels again, are the opposite. They hit righties far better than lefties. Pretty significant numbers since both starters are righthanders tonight. Again advantage to LA.
The last parameter is one I have always had success with. If you check the morning standings every day, you will see very few teams with a winning, or losing, streak more than 3 games long. Today, there are only 7 of 30 teams with a streak of more than 3 games. What that means is that when teams get a 2 or 3 game streak, it is mathematically probable that it will stop before reaching 4. When you get a team with 2 or 3 straight wins playing a team with 2 or 3 straight losses, the math makes it even stronger, and that's what we have tonight. .......Chicago has won 2 and Los Angeles has lost 2.
So, with advantages in pitching, batting, and more than one intangible, it's a solid $$$$ dog.
LA Angels (+124) for 4 units
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
