6/22/01 MLB

[Happy'Capper]

Yesterday's Recap:
Pretty tough night......
Pirates Over 8 1/2 -120 Win
Mets -180 Loss
Rockies -1 1/2 -108 Loss

Will be back with plays later......
Good luck,
HC

 

[Happy'Capper]

Gonna try to start another winning streak.... I have played these three so far and am taking a closer look at three more...

Play: Cardinals (Hermanson)
Line: -128
Opponent: Giants (Hernandez)
Some games seem to be just set up for a certain team to win. I really like the Cardinals in this one and really the price isn't too bad either. Dusty Baker has blown out the Giants bullpen in the series against the Padres. It doesn't look like Vogelson, Worrell, Fultz, or Rodriguez will be available this evening. Hernandez looks to be stuck out there on an island tonite. He has shared the wealth evenly as lefties hit .314 and righties hit .330 against him. I will happily take my chances with the Cardinals at home in this one.

Play: Twins Vs. Tigers Over
Line: Over 10 -107
Pitches: Lohse Vs. Mlicki
Actually, Lohse has been quite a hot pitcher in the minors. But what happens when he gets to the sixth and can't go anymore. That is when the Twins burn unit comes in. The Twins Bullpen has an ERA of 8.13 in the last ten games and are overworked and struggling. So it isn't so much that I think Lohse will struggle so much in his first major league start, but I don't think he will go much past the sixth. Mlicki pitching stats read as a horror story. A WHIP of 1.91, five seperate starts this year he has allowed 7 Earned Runs. Check out these monthly ERA numbers. April 6.11, May 7.06, and June 8.71..... it isn't like he is getting any better.

Play: White Sox Vs. Orioles Over
Line: Over 9 +104
Pitchers: David Wells Vs. Mercedes
Kind of a contrarian play here. When I first saw the matchup I thought there might be an under play in order. Then I did some stats research and actually the over at 9 in this American League game now looks great to me. Wells' road record is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.06 with righties hitting .327 against him on the road. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 5.77 on the road this year as well. Orioles hit lefties really well to boot at a .324 clip at home. Mercedes home ERA is 7.01 while the O's bullpen ERA is 8.21 in its last ten games. To top it all off home plate ump Darryl Cousins seems to be an "over" ump so to speak. He has a relatively low strike percentage at 61.1% and the games wherer he has been behind the plate the over has come in 9 out of 14 times.

Good luck and be back later,
HC

 

[Unknowncomic]

I like your play on w.sox over,9 out of the last 11 have gone over between these two clubs.
GL SIR,

 

[Happy'Capper]

...adding...

Play: Indians (C.C. Sabathia)
Line: -168
Opponent: Royals (Byrd)
Don't need a whole lot of stats to back up this big chalk. Just going to leave it plain and simple.........
Paul Byrd Vs.
Thome
Alomar
Vizquel
Branyan
Burks
Cordova
Gonazalez
'Nuff Said

HC

 

[Happy'Capper]

...adding four more..... call it using the shotgun technique, but some nights 8 plays look about right......

Play: Mets (Reed)
Line: -155
Opponent: Braves (Perez)
I said I was going to keep playing these Mets until they lost two games in a row, because I honestly feel like if they are going to make a move it would start after that huge win over the Yanks on Sunday. Well, they lost last night and if they lose this evening I don't have to worry about them for a bit. Line is a touch inflated, but I don't want to start going against my system..... that is when real problems start.

Play: Reds Vs. Astros Under
Line: Under 11 1/2 -107
Pitcher: Dessens Vs. Elarton
I feel this line is inflated due to the Enron field factor. Dessens pitches well against righties (.247) and that is what the Astros lineup is primarily made up of.... Last report the wind is blowing a touch for a little help.

Play: Dodgers (Adams)
Line: -127
Opponent: Padres (Williams)
It is a night and day difference between the Dodgers at home and the Dodgers on the road. Same goes for Terry Adams, 1.35 ERA at home with lefties hitting .176 and righties hitting .217.... likewise Woody Williams struggles on the road with opponents hitting him at .314 clip on the road.

Play: Angels (Washburn)
Line: +175
Opponent: Mariners (Sele)
Going with our own home grown product tonight in Washburn. This line is extremely inflated, especially when you consider the Mariners bullpen is burnt up bad. In the last 10 games the M's bullpen has a 6.90 ERA... Sele in June also has a 7.16 ERA and righties are hitting .329 off him. Washburn has really come on in May and June. In May he is 3-1 3.73 ERA and in June is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA..... Let's let this Big Dog Eat!!!

Good luck everyone and let's cash some tickets,
HC

 

[Aces High]

looking at ana too, think they can steal one after the sluggfest in oaktown the last few days. bullpen, hell everyone's gotta be jonesin a little bein home and tired.
washburn decent #'s last 3, but sele at home is only downer, 5-0, 2.64 era, and sea is 7-0 in his home starts, 12-0 overall.

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ACES HIGH