61st Telecom Italia Open

[gethman]

Really think the likes of Carbrera, Poulter, Davis and Campbell are overpriced for this event. Given the fact the tournament is played at so many different courses, it looks set up for a big priced first time winner.
Little I can find out about the course, apart from that it is long, has plenty of water, and is desgined by Arnold Palmer.
I like the long hitting style of Canonica, and he is showing in the last few weeks that his form is good enough to win soon. Playing in his homeland should suit, and 80/1 seems a pretty big price, that is bound to shorten by Thursday.
Martin Maritz is another player who is bound to win sooner or later, and is bound to be fancied this week, having been tipped by Elliott. However, a massive quote is worth taking that this will be his maiden tour victory.
I see a lot of value in backing Terry Price, Jose Manuel Lara, and am throwing in the massively priced Gianlucca Baruffaldi, who has shown a little bit of form in his native country.
Looking for a big show from Stephen Gallacher, another player who I expect to see winning soon.
A larger than normal outright group of players than I would normally back in one tournament, but I really expect an outsider to prosper this week, as I look to oppose some of the shorter priced players.

Emanuele Canonica, 80/1, Ladbrokes, 1 Pt E/W

Stephen Gallacher, 50/1, SportingOdds, 1.25 Pts E/W

Terry Price, 125/1, SportingOdds, 0.75 Pts E/W

Martin Maritz, 125/1, SkyBet, 0.75 Pts E/W

Jose Manuel Lara, 66/1, Ladbrokes, 1 Pt E/W

Gianlucca Baruffaldi, 400/1, SkyBet, 0.25 Pts E/W

 

[gethman]

David Howell to beat Paul Lawrie, 4/5, SportingOdds, 1.5 Points

Dnt think Paul Lawrie is the player he once was at this moment in time. He played well at the Masters, but that should have little significance here. His stats echo the fact that he is struggling at present, and he can only better Howell in driving distance in the stats department.
Howell has a 4-0 h2h record against Lawrie on this tour this season, and I read today that Paul Lawrie is currently suffering with flu, which is enough to make him opposable.

Nick O'Hern to beat Marten Lafeber, 9/10, Stan James, 1 Point

Will continue to oppose Lafeber until I see a drastic rise in his form. He made the cut last week, but was still way back in the field. While O'Hern is not the most reliable player on the outright markets, he always seems to be there or thereabouts, and is one to include in match betting in most tournaments. Will come to this tournament fresh after a lay off, and I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard again on Sunday.

Bradley Dredge to beat Angel Cabrera, 9/10, BetDirect, 1 Point

A little hesitation in playing this bet, having seen what Stanley has to say about Cabrera returning from the PGA Tour. However, he is going to have to be at his best to contend with Dredge who is well settled in on the tour, ultra consistent, and loves playing out in Italy.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Angel Cabrera to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
No concerns of rustiness or a failure to adapt from the PGA Tour with Cabrera. In the last two years, he has played on the PGA Tour before coming over to play in Europe and in those first European events he has finished 1st and 7th. He also opened his 2001 European campaign after four month layoff and finished 9th. So for a player who gained top-20 finishes in two of his last three PGA Tour starts and won in his home country in February, these look good odds. He is the best Argentinean player and will be keen to prove the point this week.

Marcus Fraser to finish in the top-five 15/1 @ Five Dimes
Fraser won three times on the European Challenge Tour last year, including the Russian Open which was co-sanctioned with the main Tour, so his credentials are certainly impressive. He started the season with a top-5 finish and was in the top-10 last week so these odds do look rather large, particularly as the course has not been used since 1997 so very few of the field will have course experience. As last week, his rookie status will not be penalty.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Gallacher 50 1u ew (SportingBet)
Maritz 100 1u ew (SportingBet)
Fraser 66 1u ew (Bet365)
Oosthuizen 66 1u ew (Bet365)

This is the tournament for outsiders right? Was surprised to see Gallacher this high.....and the rest sound like they should all win soon. How about this week?

Would have really liked the 80 on Canonica but I missed it. Besides I cant take more than 2 picks per week from gethman can I?

GL

 

[gethman]

TU,

Seems the 80/1 about Canonica is still there if you are able to use Ladbrokes.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Marcus Fraser to beat Louis Oosthuizen -111 @ Stan James and Paddy Power
Ooshuizen may finally be showing some form outside his native South Africa, but he trails Fraser 5-0-0 h2h in all events this year. Seems good enough reason to oppose him in this matchup.

Marcus Fraser to beat Richard Green -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Green has not played since the Singapore Masters six weeks ago and though he has not missed a cut this year, he has not finished in the top-25 in any of his last five starts. Fraser has finished ahead of Green in three of their last four common events and looks better prepared for this event.

Nick O'Hern to beat Joachim Haeggman +100 @ Bet365
Would have had O'Hern as a selection had Paddy Power offered top-10 betting for this event - he finishes 6th-10th many more times than he finishes 1st-5th - but will side with him in the matchups instead. He may be a little rusty having not played for five weeks, but he did finish in the top-5 in three of his last five starts. He has also finished behind the Swede just once since the start of the 2003 season. With Haeggman's March form fading this month, O'Hern should win this matchup if playing as he should.
(also available at Centrebet, Intertops, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)

Nick O'Hern to beat Maarten Lafeber -111 @ Stan James
Beyond a 5th place finish in South Africa, Lafeber has had a best finish of 29th this year and that was in the weak Madeira Island Open. Barring rustiness, O'Hern should win this match with ease.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated))

R Rashell 100/1 @ Sporting Odds
L Oosthuizen 80/1 @ Victor Chnadler
N Colsaerts 100/1 @ Sporting Bet
R Green 125/1 @ SkyBet
I Garrido 100/1 @ SkyBet
E Canonica 80/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 odds 1st 5)

G Barruffaldi 400/1 @ SkyBet (? unit ew) - With a nod to Gethman!

Also interested in Fraser, Price, Fichardt & Levet.

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

A long day has me late in finishing this job . . . European Tour Weekly Online is up now, which makes this intro on the course largely superfluous, but it's staying in.

On Sunday's Golf Channel broadcast from Fuerteventura, the lead commentator (his damn name escapes me) noted that the upcoming event in Milan would be held on an Arnold Palmer design with lots of water and big greens, thickish rough but generous fairways, and in excellent condition even though covered by snow a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully, no more slumming for the supposed second best tour on the planet. I've seen and played enough quality Palmer designs of recent vintage, and this not so recent design should nevertheless feature much of the usual: swinging the driver is encouraged, with suitable advantages for the best placed drive; approaches that fit into the hole's contours in terms of both defending the targets and feeding into the targets; the deeper bunkers usually tend to have grass faces; a course that on first impression is appealing to the eye and relies on a low quotient of quirkiness; and a radical departure from last week's ill-defined targets to an intelligent design that offers clear options and yields to good golf. The few images and written materials I've come across (before European Tour Weekly Online) also hint that elevation changes in the terrain are far less pronounced than I anticipated in a lake region at the foot of the Alps, and the course will just about play to it's hefty yardage.

http://216.239.37.104/translate_c?h...rnold+palmer&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=G


OUTRIGHTS:

Angel Cabrera(20/1 and 22/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Cabrera has been on my radar since Tucson, and the radar shadow of both Cabrera and Romero grew more distinct with each chapter in the recent escapades of Senor Gonzalez. The howling winds, dog tracks and modest cast slayed and encountered over the last two weeks are not enough to dissuade me from my belief that Cabrera is a darn sight better player than his sizzling amigo (who has been flashing that sizzling form with all 14 clubs). Since I heard a Palmer design would be the staging, I considered the reunion battle joined, and I confess a little surprise about the minimum of respect reflected in the odds disparity of half as likely. Cabrera has the course and the challenge (and even prominently featured pairings) with which to flash his standing among the closely bonded trio of Argentines, and while El Gato is hard to discount (and maybe Coceres stands in the same light and is the proper direction to look, along with a nod to kjls), and although I'd much prefer less competitive rust (despite noting Stan's breakdown of that circumstance), this spot and Cabrera seem well matched for a moment that has proven profitable in similar circumstances in the past 2+ years (i.e., J.P. Hayes and Rich Beem, and Darren Clarke and Lee Westwood come immediately to mind, among other delicious moments on and across all of the main tours).

Marcus Fraser(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
My first play on the youngster; I'm hoping against hope that some strong bonds of affection can be formed. Tweaking my theme of an exceptional clip this year (against conventional wisdom) of players getting in the thick of contention rather than falling off immediately after a featured performance, there are hints of that trend sprouting a first corollary that suggests climbing quickly aboard on the first evidence of discovered form, especially with campaigners (or winners) like Scott Hoch that have proven merit. Mr. Fraser doesn't perfectly fit the profile, but enough so that I'm banking on his pluck to see me through, and he had me hooked before Stan's numbers apparently tugged him in the same direction.

Jose Manuel Lara(55/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
The featured Spaniard from last week is showing the form of his life and has overcome a recent medical setback in his own dossier. Can the stylish swinger sustain his best stuff through the wind tossing of the past two weeks? A worrisome choice over my dabbling stakes on Canonica, Levet, Price, Garrido, Green (a nod to lal) and Colsaerts, and all those names still leave me fretting about something obvious I know I am missing (and I don't mean Poulter or Jacquelin) - and this ain't what I mean, either . . .

Sandy Lyle(300/1) for 0.30* e.w @ 5dimes
Indulging myself on this one. There is no shortage of spark, but a pitiful grade of fuel to sustain. Nevertheless, if offered at equal odds, Lyle would get my money over Faldo in this spot, so he's underpriced (overpriced?) (how about wrongly priced) in my book. How about a 3rd round charge, and a weather shortened 54 hole tournament? Whatever.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

"I like to watch." ~ lostinamerica quoting Chauncey Gardner

A good read:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/sport/2004/04/08/sgmj08.xml
- (The link at the end to his prior columns is also worth exploring.)

:lol:

 

[lostinamerica]

MATCHUPS:

Poulter(-110) over Gonzalez (Tournament - Ties lose) for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

FRIDAY:

Cabrera(+125) over Olazabal/Canonica for 1* @ Bet365

Foster(-115) over Evans for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-1; +1.63pts

Cabrera 4th
Fraser 28th

Chaotic event with a Monday finish to a 54-hole event, but looked to be a great break after Cabrera was leading after two rounds. Still looked like he could win it until he took a six on the 12th hole in the final round and gave up a two-shot swing to McDowell. He finished two shots out of the lead.

Matchups - Final update: 1-3-0; -2.36pts

Fraser/Oosthuizen WON by 3
Fraser/Green LOST by 1
O'Hern/Haeggman LOST by 14
O'Hern/Lafeber LOST by 3

Called it wrong on O'Hern - he was obviously much more rusty than I thought. Almost broke even though, but a closing 66 by Green was enough to snatch victory away from Fraser.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 5-14; -3.43pts
Matchups: 12-13; -2.79pts

 

[lal2000]

As Stan said, a totally chaotic event and generally disappointing, though Levet's performance helped cover some of my exposure - however a win would have been nicer! Now roll on Justin in New Orleans!

LT