84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
With finishes of 1st and 2nd in two starts in this event, it is difficult not to take note of Allenby this week. Those events may have been played on difference courses (as is the case this week), but Allenby should certainly have some good memories of this event which should help this week. Against this very weak field, his record of three top-10 finishes in his last five PGA Tour starts looks very impressive and like Singh and Goosen last week, he is a deserved favourite.

Jonathan Byrd to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Given that Byrd was a winner last than twelve months ago and was 2nd last week, it is a surprise that Byrd's odds are as high as this. He should not be more than 25/1 against this field and if he can keep his form from last week, he will surely go close on this big-hitters' track.

Rod Pampling to win 50/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Pampling is not as long off the tee as Byrd, but he still far from short and should not find the length prohibitive. He has shown very good form of late, though there has been a certain symmetry to his finishes in the past two months: mc-4-11-24-14-3-mc. The fact that he missed the cut before this streak started is not supportive for the superstitious, but really, as with Allenby, this type of form is extremely impressive in this company and as he showed in his Nationwide days, while he doesn't win enough, he does finish in the top-5 on rather a lot of occasions.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one outright to place @ Skybet
Hal Sutton 10/1
been fading him in past but apparently his sleep probs are behind him.
Last 10 events has 4 top 10's with finishes of 3rd-5th-6th-10th-17th and 19th against MUCH better competition.
Will give him a look vs this crew.--an added note winds projected last 2 days (hurricane) 20mph+ last day and I have Hal tabbed as excellent wind player.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
72 holes
Sutton -110 over Calc @ 5 Dimes
Sutton -110 over Mayfair @ 5 Dimes
Crane -111 over Curtis @ Sportingbet (ties lose)
Flesch -110 over Appleby @ 365 (ties lose)

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Just checked and appears they have. Guessing one of them is a non runner! I'll check the tee times.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Crane is not listed

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stephen Ames to beat Rich Beem -115 @ WWTS
Opposing Beem yet again. He may have finished 2nd in the Western Open in July, but that is the only cut in his last five PGA Tour events that he has made. He finished a lowly 67th in the limited field NEC Invitational last time out, so his form is incomparable with that of Ames who has finished in the top-25 in the last two weeks.

Carl Pettersson to beat Aaron Barber -125 @ BetInternet
A 63 on Sunday earned the Swede his second consecutive top-15 finish. While Barber has made his last two cuts, neither has been in the top-15 and Pettersson, who has a 10-4-1 h2h lead over the past year, is a strong favourite in this matchup.

Dan Forsman to beat Jeff Brehaut -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Forsman does have the pressure of being defending champion albeit from a different course, but he is a much better player than Brehaut whose best finish in the last six months (17 events) is 30th at the Western Open in July. Forsman was an impressive 11th in the NEC Invitational and while another win is extremely unlikely, he should prevail in this matchup.

Jeff Maggert to beat Ben Curtis -118 @ Expekt
Maggert is not a great player to have as a selection, but he has been in decent form over the last two months and Curtis is certainly worth opposing. Since his shock win at the British Open, he has finished 61st, mc, 30th (limited field), mc and then 70th last week in the Lancome trophy when he returned from his honeymoon. He played very poorly then and will surely do so again this week.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

0.5 ew...each
Weibring 28 1/4 1234
Pampling 40 1/4 12345

Then I made some crazy plays.........

0.1 each
Doubles...
Casey16 & Allenby12
Casey16 & Morgan12
Allenby12 & Morgan12

Triple....
Casey16, Allenby12 & Morgan12

Anyone ever hit a triple??

 

[Clive]

TU...I'm grateful if I land a single! Never done a treble, but good luck...make sure it doesn't break the limits set at the book.

 

[bettingmad]

In 2000 I came as close as you can without winning to a treble.

2 Winners S Lowery 25/1 Southern Farm Bureau & 16/1 P Mickelson Tour Championship

But Darren Clarke 14/1 let it down when 2nd to P Fulke in the Volvo Masters. He was a shot ahead and 1/5 stood on the 16th tee but Fulke holed a bomb for eagle and while Clarke birdied he bogied 17 to lose by 1 shot

 

[kjls04202]

Quite keen on two longshots who look like they might be coming to the boil. Stephen Ames and Pat Perez are the two culprits. Neither have yet to win on US tour but I just feel they are fairly priced in this event. Each way each for me.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Hal Sutton to beat Steve Lowery -111 @ Ladbrokes
This has been quite a year for the Ryder Cup captain as he has mystically found his game again. At the same time, Lowery has lost his, bar a 2nd place finish in the B.C. Open, making only 12 of 24 cuts this year. It must seem a very long since last July-September when he had five top-10 finishes in six events. They may have wide-open fairways on this course, but Sutton looks the more likely player to be around at the weekend.
(also available at Intertops)

No 1st round plays.

 

[sports student]

2 man 72 hole parlay at Bowmans

Sutton even over Calc
Ames -125 over Kendall

pays 2.6-1

hey DTB you must be losing your influence. I have not been playing much golf as once again I stupidly have been concentrating on football. Anyway after seeing your pick on Sutton at -110 over Calc I went to 5 dimes and found Sutton is now only -103. (although I do see that Sutton is now -130 over Mayfair) In my limited experience it is rare when you and Stan use the same golfer for matchups and then any of their matchups go the other way. Teach them some respect!!!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

:lol:
You know SS college foots was always my fav sport to wager and this is 1st year I have not even looked into it. Not one wager yet.
Usually kept my head above water but last 2 previous years were a wash and I have had much more fun (and success) with golf especially when Stan opened site with stats.
I think it is much more predictable because you only have temperment of one player and not whole team-no bad calls by refs- players are paid on performance and not salary and I could go on. Bottom line is if you will listen the books will tell you which is the most beatable offering 1/2 juice and at times no juice to get action in foots but throwing up as high as 30 cent plus lines in golf.
--and golf is 12 months a year

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd plays
Sutton +105 over Calc @ Cascade
Ames -120 over Kendall @ 5 dimes
Ames +102 over Tanaka @ 5 Dimes
Waldorf -110 over Pernice @ 5 Dimes

Anticipating the winds to hit from hurricane this pm and all the above are am/pm adv. All have superior before the cut scoring ave with exception of Sutton/Calc (maybe a little emotion on my part on this selection) but Calcs last 5 have been poor ave 71.6
also pernice has the smallest of edges.

other am/pm adv available are
Appleby vs Pampling and Calc however his before the cut rank of 156th was too poor.

Am upset to see WSEX has removed parlays option on 1st rd .5 stroke lines as I was have quite a time with them prior to vacation last week.

08/24/2003 05:37:56 5 Play Parlay: Wagered $10.00 to win $206.29 Won Parlay Wager
G4 1 8/24 DARREN CLARKE VS JONATHAN KAYE (NEC RND 4 ONLY) DARREN CLARKE -0.5 (-130) (W)
G4 5 8/24 DAVIS LOVE III VS STEVE FLESCH (NEC RND 4 ONLY) DAVIS LOVE III -0.5 (-145) (W)
G4 7 8/24 RETIEF GOOSEN VS HAL SUTTON (NEC RND 4 ONLY) RETIEF GOOSEN -0.5 (-125) (W)
G4 11 8/24 ROBERT ALLENBY VS FRED FUNK (NEC RND 4 ONLY) ROBERT ALLENBY -0.5 (+115) (W)
G4 19 8/24 FRED COUPLES VS IAN POULTER (NEC RND 4 ONLY) FRED COUPLES -0.5 (-115) (W)

09/01/2003 06:39:14 4 Play Parlay: Wagered $10.00 to win $189.00 Won Parlay Wager
G4 1 9/1 ADAM SCOTT VS JONATHAN KAYE (RND 4 ONLY - DEUTSCHE) ADAM SCOTT -0.5 (+110) (W)
G4 3 9/1 DARREN CLARKE VS GEOFF OGILVY (RND 4 ONLY - DEUTSCHE) GEOFF OGILVY +0.5 (+115) (W)
G4 5 9/1 JUSTIN ROSE VS ROCCO MEDIATE (RND 4 ONLY - DEUTSCHE) ROCCO MEDIATE -0.5 (+105) (W)
G4 7 9/1 TIM HERRON VS K.J. CHOI (RND 4 ONLY - DEUTSCHE) TIM HERRON -0.5 (+115) (W)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd 1-3
Sutton/Calc win
Ames/Tanaka loss
Ames/Kendall loss
Waldoef/Pernice loss

Hmmm best laid plans ---
Double plays are a curse for me as Ames who ranks 24th in scor ave before cut goes 4 over on 1st 2 holes and finishes front in 42. Appleby who also had am/pm adv but was not played do to terrible before the cut ave naturelly wins both his matches.

Can't see them playing tomorrow and will have no plays if they do as 1st look at this course was not impressed and do not like these shoot style venues.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PGA.com "As the leading edge of Hurricane Isabel approached the mountaintop Nemacolin Woodlands resort, a steady rain began falling and the winds picked up in the early afternoon, but scores did not drop substantially."

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Well chit I tried not to look at lines for today but did and going to make a play against my better judgement.
Byrd -105 over Parney - 1/2 stroke @ WSEX

Playing in same group so will not get bad shake on conditions.
Byrd only missed 1 fairway and 4 greens yesterday despite his score not indicating that but more so a play against Parney who has not had 2 rds in the 60's in last 11 tourneys so hoping his good rd yesterday will not repeat---but expect the unprobable as with Ames yesterday but forced to go with these #'s.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Finals 2nd rd 0-1 72 holes 0-2-1

2nd rd
Byrd/Parny loss

Sutton/Calc loss
Sutton/Mayfair push
Flesch/Appleby loss

Outrights Sutton cut - 1unit and -1 unit unit for Verplank in Bell Canadian Open which I was not here to tabulate leaving a
ytd of +38.8 units

Matches week 1-6 - 5.5 units ytd + 48.8 units

Going back to last event capped (Deutsche Bank Classic) have had a hideous 2 week run of 4-13 for back to back losing events for 3rd time this year, but none quite this horrific--the only thing in common is both events were played on virgin courses. Will make note of that in the furture.
Am done with this event as it is apparent I am clueless on how to cap it. You can throw stats out the window. Had some plays I really liked especially in 1st rd with contrary tees and the better golfer and even the weather came thru as expected but---
The LC&P with wide fairways will take any ball striking out of remainder of this event in my IMHO.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -1.58 units

Ames/Beem LOST by 4
Pettersson/Barber WON by 2
Forsman/Brehaut LOST by 9
Maggert/Curtis LOST by 6
Sutton/Lowery WON by 1

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Allenby 69th
Byrd 16th
Pampling 44th

Poor event and not sure that the selections would have performed any better under different weather conditions. Narrow wins in the two matchup victories, two outright selections that never looked like gaining a return, leaving Byrd who should be renamed Icarus for his performances when approaching the top of the leaderboard!

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 131-81; +38.80 units
18-holes: 105-114; -44.57 units
Outrights: 31-89; +67.24 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 339-241; +149.92 units
18-holes: 275-256; -26.16 units
Outrights: 82-302; +27.71 units

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Well so much for my doubles and triple! You're correct Clive. I should be happy with one but i'm greedy.

Got lucky with Weibring. The way he looked I thought he had no shot. I guess I can never say i'm not lucky after today.

This week 1-1 +16.1 (Weibring)
YTD 2-7 +16.0