9/18-9/20 College Football

[xerri]

posted record 5-3 +7.46 units

Purdue -25 3 units
This Arizona team is about as bad as they get. They have absolutely no passing game avg. just 155 ypg and 5.0 ypa and the only reason the numbers are that high is because they played UTEP in their opener. Against LSU and Oregon they were only able to compile 91 and 146 yards passing despite trailing big the whole game and having to throw. Purdue's defense is much better than Oregon's and is close to or better than LSU's. Through their 1st 2 games Purdue is giving up just 1.4 ypr and 53 rush ypg so don't expect the Cats to get much on the ground either. Purdue should score some points against the Arizona defense and I wouldn't be surprised to see their defense and special teams get a couple of scores as they should have ample opportunities. Purdue will probably want to make amends after blowing their home opener and I think they will get an easy win at home here. Think this line may go up as the week goes along so getting on this one early.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Agreed! Lets get continue on the bet against U. of A. train. I have won 8 units betting against the Wildcats this year, now if only they were the only plays I hit I would be sitting pretty. I will drop you a line this week.

HORNS

 

[bgold13]

i actually disagree with this.. for some reason ua getting that many points is very appealing.. look at hte individial matchups in this game and you will see ua is less talented but not overmatched... it will be good for ua to get away from tucsin

 

[pt1gard]

on first glance its no brainer but

on first glance its no brainer but

not so fast ...

is stubblefield OK for Boilers, left at half vs WF with 7 catches, had 16 week b4 ...

and purdue hasnt scored much this year, 26 at home vs BG and they got 1 TD vs WF who's D vs BC and NC ST was pourous, surrendering 954 total yards

Purdue rushed for 3.1 vs WF, their D was awesome 1.6 pc; same for BG game limited BG to 1.2 pc ... BG outgained purdue at purdue 407-350

my worry does purdue have the speed of lsu and dux to score enough pts to cover--they avg 18 ppg yet are giving 25 on the spread ... i would love to hear how often a team covers when their ppg and spread discrepancy is -7?

however Zona in last 2 games has been out first downed 57-19 and ypp have been 10.7 and 8.9, the Dux held Zona to 1.6 pc

Im not betting it and maybe zona is worst thing in cleats, but purdue has to hit 40 IMO for anyone to feel safe ... Only once in Purdue's last 13 home games have they scored over 38 pts, course none of them shared Lute Olsons colors

gl, gregg

 

[CrazyHorse]

As bad as ARZ is I still would lean to them. Purdue got their revenge win vs WF and have Notre Dame on deck. Classic sandwich game. Don't have the exact #'s but they have not done well covering the # the game before Arizona. And Arizona is a much better (or should I say 'not as pathetic') road dog than home dog.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Guys the more I look at it the more you might be right. Knowing ND is on deck and the fact Purdue does not score alot of pts. might make UofA the play. If the Wildcats can put 10 on the board they might cover this number. GL

HORNS

 

[xerri]

Arizona St. +9 -108 3 units and +8.5 -110 2 units
I think this line is a little high due to the Sun Devils' lackluster performances against NAU and Utah St. They didn't want to show anything as they were waiting for this game so I expect their offense to play much better. Iowa's defense has been real good but I'm not sure about their offense. Their leading WR Brown is out 4-6 weeks and the next leading receiver for the Hawkeyes has just 3 catches for 33 yds which is a huge dropoff. Also Iowa has just 351 passing yards in 3 games. Their offense has benefitted from their defense giving them great field position thus far but I think their defense will have a little tougher time here. Against Iowa St. they had just 1 drive over 40 yards and I expect ASU to move the ball a little better than the Cyclones. Chandler hasn't really proven he can move the team throwing the ball so I like ASU's chances of at least keeping it close if not winning outright.

Thanks for the insight on the Arizona game as I may play it a little smaller. I just don't think Purdue will overlook anyone right now having lost one at home already and barely getting by Wake Forest. They made a ton of mistakes in that game and you can be sure Tiller will be all over them this week. I think Arizona will be very lucky to get even one score against this defense which is why I think Purdue covers. I really think Arizona will have difficulty moving the ball and I see Purdue having great field position for most of the game which should lead to some points.

 

[Superbear]

Arizona has a swisscheese offensive line,...they cant run or protect the QB,...if we all agree there is no way they can win this game then there must be better plays on dogs that can actualy win outright,...that way you get 2 chances of winning by a backdoor cover or an outright win


picture of me watching the AU/OU game on Sat nite(I had AU)


http://63.67.129.31/E60/Screen/300402031.jpg

 

[pt1gard]

iowa

iowa

in clones and miami games gave up 1.9 and 1.8 pc

Buff rushed for 232


gl, gregg

 

[xerri]

added 2 more units to Arizona St. +8.5 -100 for a total of 5 units

adding these

Clemson +4 -105, 3 units
Don't really understand why everyone is on GT. Clemson has won the L2 meetings and the 3 before that were won by Georgia Tech but each was by 3 points. Yellowjackets aren't nearly as talented this year as in past years either. I don't like this GT offense a whole lot led by a freshman QB and a walk on tailback as they have avg. just 14.3 ppg so far, granted they did face some very tough defenses. Whitehurst has played pretty well thus far completing 70% of his passes and he's got some big and experienced WRs to throw to. I think this will be a pretty close game that Clemson could win outright so will take the points.

Indiana +8.5 -105, 2 units
Public is on Kentucky yet line is moving the other way so have a feeling the Hoosiers are the play. Kentucky hasn't shown they can run the ball at all while their defense has not been impressive. Don't think they should be laying this many points on the road.

Mississippi St. -4 -108, 3 units
Think MSU gets their first win here against a pretty bad Houston team. The Bulldogs have been able to score plenty but just haven't been stopping anyone. I think this Houston offense is way below that of Oregon and Tulane so I think MSU's defense will fare a little better. Only decent school they have played was Michigan and they got smoked 50-3 in that game gaining under 200 yards of total offense. Fant has played well and has some pretty good WRs to throw to and the Bulldogs have two very talented RBs in Turner and Norwood who are really starting to play well in their sophomore seasons. MSU should have a huge advantage in special teams as well and I expect them to get a relatively easy win here as I don't expect them to let up after blowing last week's game.

LSU -1 -105, 3 units
LSU is a very tough place to play and it is difficult to win on the road in the SEC. Although Georgia has talented replacements, I really think they will miss the experience of guys like Gibson and Watson and they also have some injury problems in the secondary. Also with a freshman RB you could see some fumbles or missed blocking assignments which can really hurt against a tough defense like LSU's. Mauck has played pretty well and is mobile which should help against the Georgia defense and he has plenty of weapons around him. I have a tough time passing up on a quality team at home in the SEC at near a pk as homefield advantage is huge so will go with the Tigers here. Public likes Georgia as well so like my chances.

 

[AR182]

xerri,


i'm with you on asu & indiana.

good luck this weekend.

 

[anlhar]

with you

with you

I am all over MSU. I think I wagered a little too much on this game so hopefully it pays off, but I don't think they are going to loose to another lower level C-USA team.

Not too sure about ASU. I actually bet Iowa -7 (bought a half point) becuase they look pretty strong to me.

Good luck though

 

[xerri]

adding
New Mexico +16.5 -105, 2 units
Playing this one mainly on line movement. Public is on WSU yet line has come down from 17 or 17.5 to 16 in some places. New Mexico has a pretty good running game and defense so think they can keep this one close. Also a sandwich game for the Cougars off a win at Colorado and playing in Eugene next week.

recap of plays:

Arizona St. 3 units +9 at -108 and 2 units +8.5 at -110, total of 5
Purdue -25 -110 3 units
Clemson +4 -105 3 units
Mississippi St. -4 -108 3 units
LSU -1 -105 3 units
New Mexico +16.5 -105 2 units
Indiana +8.5 -105 2 units

Was gonna buy back a unit of Purdue at reduced juice of -105 on Friday but steam has hit Purdue and pushed the line up to 27 so think I will let the play ride at -25 for now. Still looking at 1 or 2 games but that is pretty much it for this weekend.

 

[xerri]

adding a Friday play

Hawaii under 63.5 -105 2 units
Think UNLV's defense is a little better than people think and I also think they will have some success running the ball which should grind out some clock. Think this is a few too many points as both teams would need to score a good bit to get to this total.

 

[xerri]

added another unit to the Hawaii under at 63 for 3 total

Colorado/FSU under 50 -103 3 units
FSU has a very good defense this year and Buffs missing their starting QB and RB may have trouble scoring. Noles don't seem to have much faith in Rix and have become a running team so think both teams will run a lot of clock using running plays and like it to go under as I don't think either team can pass too effectively.

Texas Tech +6.5 -105 2 units
NC St.'s defense has been terrible against two pretty mediocre offenses IMO in Ohio St and Wake Forest. Symons is probably almost as good as Kingsbury. He has a very strong arm and adds some mobility. He's got a lot of experienced WRs back and think the Raiders can put up some points against this defense. Should be a high scoring game and I think Tech has a good shot at the outright win so may put some on the ML as well.

 

[xerri]

3 more units on Mississippi St at -5 for a total of 6
2 units on Oregon +7.5
Arizona St ML +250 1 unit
Toledo +9.5 2 units
1 more unit to LSU at -2 for for total of 4

 

[xerri]

gonna try and middle this Purdue game
taking Zona +11 -105 for 1 unit 2nd half
Purdue isn't running the ball real well and I think they may get conservative and it basically gives +35 for Zona to go along with -25 for Purdue which is a pretty wide margin.

 

[xerri]

adding
Oklahoma St. -13.5 -110 1st half 2 units
SMU has no offense to speak of and I think the Cowboys will jump on them early. SMU has scored just 17 points having faced Baylor and Texas Tech thus far.

Wake Forest -11 -110 1st half 1 unit
ECU is another team that has difficulty scoring. Like Wake's running game and Randolph can make plays at the QB position. After losing their last game I look for them to start out strong.