9/9/02-mnf Big Money Play

[UT-Longhorn]

Going off of what STAG just wrote about in a previous post, ive been waiting for this game for some time now--the Steelers and the Patriots on MNF. Im going BIG on the Steelers, but am waiting to a few minutes before game time to make the wager. All eyes will be on MNF, and every tom, dick and harry, (uneducated bettor) will put their $$$ on the defending Super Bowl Champion. In the last 9 years, the defending super bowl champion has failed to cover the spread. (9 Years in a row) I see the public pouding the Pats hard, and im gonna jump on the Steelers........
GLTA!

 

[GM]

I'm not sure this is like all the other first-games for the defending champs....in that the Patriots don't seem to have gained any respect at all for winning it. People still say it's a fluke, and they are the weakest SB Champ of all time, etc.

When the Rams or the Ravens or the Broncos won, everyone was in awe. Not the same case here. Lots of people like the Steelers, and they are a public team. So I really don't know how to read this. But I don't see the line being inflated for the Pats like it was for those other champs.

(edit) That being said, the Pats DO still have to face the fact that their opponents will be geared up for them for all 16 games this year, just as other defending champs did. Just don't know if the public is going to push the line as in the past with what they view as a weak team.

 

[freelancc]

I agree with this game.... The Steelers are not a cinch to win this game as long as Cordell is at QB.. The Pats still are hungry. But i agree it is tempting to take the Steelers.

I will not be surprised if the Pats will be getting points by Saturday.

 

[homedog]

It is funny how different people view lines and public perception in different ways.

I see it exactly opposite UT. I think the public will be all over Pittsburgh.

 

[cooz3]

i would be careful burying any game in week 1...the way the NFL these days you can seldom forsee the "surprise" teams and the "dissapointing" prior to say week 3...that being said im sure you have your own method..so good luck whatever you do...BUT regarding this game...be careful betting against the PATRIOTS here...as stated eralier they are still feeding off the "no respect" angle...PITT is already talking a GOOD GAME...much like they did prior to AFC championship game...the patriots took advantage of PITTS shoddy play on special teams and i have seen a few lapses in preseason by Pitt already on special teams...also dont forget BRADY was hurt in that game against PITT last year...with Bledsoe coming in and playing admirably...Pitt's rushing offense was tremendous last year but take a close look at Jerome Bettis's stats vs. the PATS when Belichek is thre (either as defensive coord. or head coach)...he does nothing against them...and when you can stop there run..pitt becomes one dimensional with Kordell at the helm...ill take my chances with the PATs secondary vs. Kordell ( especially if Wines ward oh i meant Hines Ward is out) ...with that said i am not by any means am saying Pitt will not be a solid team nor am i saying they cannot beat the pats ...but before you throw a load on Pitt there are some legitimate angles to look at.....THe BEST of luck in whatever you do....COOZ

 

[nyraider]

as i wrote in weekly match-up

as i wrote in weekly match-up

ALWAYS BET, AGAINST THE SUPREBOWL WIINNER, IN THERE FIRST GAME.
IT'S A SOLID % BET!! WHAT UT-LONGHORN WTOTE IS CORRECT, PUBLIC WILL RIDE THE WINNER?
DON'T GET FOOLED, PITT OUTRIGHT!!!

GOOD LUCK DAN!

 

[acehistr8]

Re: as i wrote in weekly match-up

Re: as i wrote in weekly match-up

ALWAYS BET, AGAINST THE SUPREBOWL WIINNER, IN THERE FIRST GAME.
IT'S A SOLID % BET!!

Hopefully in one of these threads you will answer, where you come up with the fact it is a SOLID % BET or BIG % PLAY.

What facts are you basing this on?

Heres a fact, since 1990, SB Champs are **8-4** s/u in Week 1. Thats a 66.7% win rate in favor of the Champs. What are you basing your posts on?

 

[GM]

Re: as i wrote in weekly match-up

Re: as i wrote in weekly match-up

ALWAYS BET, AGAINST THE SUPREBOWL WIINNER, IN THERE FIRST GAME.
IT'S A SOLID % BET!! WHAT UT-LONGHORN WTOTE IS CORRECT, PUBLIC WILL RIDE THE WINNER?
DON'T GET FOOLED, PITT OUTRIGHT!!!

GOOD LUCK DAN!

If the public will ride the winner, I guess that explains why the line has gone from Pick to Pitt -2? huh?

Pitt is a public team. Pats are still not respected. Come Monday this line will be Pitt -3 easily.

 

[greed]

The one thing I would be careful of is when has the last time a defending champion has been a home dog opening up in a new stadium. Everyone is jumping on Pittsburg as being the AFC champs this year. They have a question mark at wide receiver with Hines Ward out. They also have question marks in the kicking game. This line will be up to 3 before kickoff. I think the under may be a better play than the game itself. Beware of home dogs on Monday night.

 

[4bubba]

Sept 3

Everybody seems to get hung up on the points as far as picking a game.

i seem to remember several games last year where the teams were less than a TD apart going into the last 4 minutes. Winning or losing a pointspread bet came down to hitting or missing a field goal in the last few seconds.

think what that means. In a 60 minute game played by 2 groups of human beings, the outcome most likely wont be decided until sometime in the final 2 minutes.
Then there is the officials. A team is a 2 point favorite. Can a bad call at the end eat that up?


Dont worry what others pick, at least at first.
DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK IF YOU ARE BETTING YOUR OWN MONEY.

 

[Hooks]

I came across this a few years ago, don't have the exact numbers but here it is :

Play on any team that was knocked out of the playoffs last year when they meet that same opponent only on Monday Nite Football.

What better stage to get revenge ( N.E. knocked Pitts. out of the playoffs in the A.F.C. Championship game as 10 pt. underdogs, 24-17)

 

[Natymike]

Uh, the public will most definately NOT ride the Patriots. People still have zero respect for them and the Steelers are the #2 rated team this year by most analysts. Why you would assume everyone would bet against them is beyond me.

Be sure to wait till gametime so you can get Pit at -4.5 or so.

 

[GM]

-3 yes, -3 -120 yes, but -4? is a long stretch. The books will not move the line across the 3 and risk getting middled. The game opened at Pk....they can't and won't move it 4? pts.

Still agree it's a strange assumption to think the world will be on the Pats.

 

[acehistr8]

I wouldnt be surprised if this line didnt move at all.

I think the Steelers have more than a few question marks, but it begins and ends with Kordell. If he can play like he is capable of, this will be a good close game. If not, the Pats defensive schemes should give him and Bettis fits all night.