Adding:
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(10/1) e.w.
- - - - FWIW, when Mickelson won the PGA at Baltusrol, he was paired with his good friend DLIII in the 4th round, and they are paired together (with Beem) for the 1st and 2nd rounds this year. While I?ve got a tiny saver on Love, it?s really another reason for my play on Mickelson . . .
I missed the front nine on Saturday when Phil was apparently driving it crooked, but I saw plenty from Firestone, and it was surely the most complete golf I've seen from Lefty all year. Analyst David Feherty commented at the start on Sunday that Phil was looking really close to some brilliant stuff, and from my much greater distance it surely looked to me like a rising barometer was in the forecast. A couple of marginal tee shots at the death are not going to color my take from the event . . . And when it comes to criticism of f/k/a Hefty's propensity for overpreparation, I think his staying away from the course on Monday offers a peek at what he?s thinking and feeling after letting one get away on Sunday, and also his self-assessment regarding the state of his game (and he's now skipped his practice round on Tuesday). Phil's skill and imagination around the greens should surface as invaluable, and his shotmaking around 'dem Hills won't be lagging either, IMO . . . I can't see him not being a big part of the storyline on the weekend.
Paul Casey(50/1) e.w.
- - Casey is streaky good, and has been since his college days, and that's been a reliable standard for capping his play when in (and to a lesser extent out of) form. He still hasn't brought the refinement to his shot repertoire and entire game that he's going to need for the long haul, and that worries me some this week, but I like what's at stake with his form where it's at.
Hunter Mahan(50/1) e.w.
- - As I posted when I made Mahan my final selection at Birkdale: "Far too popular for my liking, but he has the right stuff. Driving will be his ticket to anywhere thereabouts." . . . Butch Harmon has said Oakland Hills is a driving and putting course, which would suit this choice if it's true. I heard a scribe more or less say everyone is going to just two putt and move on on these poa annua greens, which means Vijay's left hand low long putting will not hurt him as much here as it did at Firestone.;I disagree, and think some will hate these surfaces while others will absolutely embrace them. . . . Mahan has been believable in his positive comments from his U.S. Amateur experiences, and while with his struggles at Birkdale really came as no surprise, one big brain fart this week would shock me, and harm from his Ryder Cup comments seem very unlikely to me to structure how his week unfolds.
For now and the future, a good read on Hunter Mahan:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0HFI/is_5_59/ai_n25362548/pg_1?tag=artBody
David Toms Top American(66/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
- -"Some introductions were in order last week at Firestone when David Toms walked onto the practice range. He hasn?t been seen on the PGA Tour since he tied for 27th at the Travelers Championship, turning down his spot in the British Open . . . The reason? Toms was in dire need of a vacation . . . The 41-year-old from Louisiana had played nine out of 11 weeks, only twice finishing in the top 20, when he decided it was time to take a break. He headed off to his lake house with his wife and two children, with plans of returning to the John Deere Classic. But he was having so much fun, and his game was not in shape, so he passed on Royal Birkdale . . . ?I had a great time,? said Toms, who had never taken such a long break in the summer without being forced out by injury. ?It was hard to force myself to come back.? . . . He did at a tough place ? the Bridgestone Invitational ? and got progressively better with a 70-69 weekend to tie for 48th. Toms was among the early arrivals to Oakland Hills on Monday, playing 18 holes . . . Toms made some sacrifices with his game to spend time with his family. He has yet to record a top 10, meaning he most likely will not be part of the Ryder Cup team for the first time since 1999. And he is 130th in the FedEx Cup standings with only two tournaments remaining before the playoffs begin."
More:
http://www.2theadvocate.com/sports/25547039.html
10 straight cuts made, but never into a purple patch. Just enough time to catch Azinger's eye before he makes his Captain's picks. I was giving Toms some serious consideration before I saw a clip of him holing out from the middle of the fairway for an eagle on Monday (#12?), and looking relaxed in his interview afterwards in which he said par looks like a good score to him on every hole. I see value here without the feel of the inevitable value loser.
Previously posted plays on Chris DiMarco, Lee Westwood, and Darren Clarke.
That leaves savers on Chad Campbell, Stephen Ames, Sean O'Hair, Camilo Villegas and Ben Curtis.
Matchups/3-Balls/Propositions/etc.:
- Total players under par will be 4 to zero(+185)
- Total players under par will be 5-10(+175)
- - Course is receptive enough so I don't expect the first PGA since 1976 with a winning total over par, but a strict test that will see only a handful of the sharpest contenders earning their way to subpar status over 72 holes.
- Phil Mickelson finishing position Un10'(+112)
- Lee Westwood finishing position Un20'(-104)
GL
