A Betting Strategy ?

[buddy]

Given the entire football season (NCAA and NFL), would it be far-fetched to think that you could hit ten-in-a-row?

And double the bet each time.

50-100-200-400-800-1600-3200-6400-12,800-25,600 (Yipes !!)

After winning two-in-a-row, the bet would have to be modified to include the juice, but you get the idea.

An entire season, college and pro, to hit ten-in-a-row?

Money management would not be a factor.

Just handicapping skills and discipline.

Given the size of your bet, would you have the discipline to look at a 46 game card and say, "I'll pass" or would you have the nuts to say, "This is the game...right here."

First off, I'd be scared to bet fifty bucks !

 

[yyz]

Yes, it would be far fetched. The one thing that you do have going for you with this sort of logic? You are sticking to a great betting strategy.

Let's face it.......shouldn't you be thinking that you are placing a winning bet in the first place? Too many guys place far too many wagers in a season. If you were to place bets only when you thought that you had exceptional value, you would be far better off. The problem is, we all have egos that need to be stroked!

"What? Not bet on the Monday night game? You must be stoned!"

One thing I've noticed over the football season? Everyone has a spin on the Monday night game! Why do you suppose that is? It could be the two shittiest teams in the league, but 60 people have the answer to this one, baby! A vast majority of us can't keep our hands in our pockets when we should.

So, going back to you original thought, even though I don't think too many guys would go 10-0, I do believe that you would be plesently surprised to find that you would show a profit if you rolled over one weeks winnings and shot for two wins in a row.

Here is another suggestion:

Everyone has a team that they follow, and mine is the Packers in the NFL, and the Badgers in college. Last year I cleaned up on both of them.....AGAIN! The reason is quite simple. Those teams get more attention from me than any other! Naturally, the more you know about something, the better prepared you are in forming an opinion. Now, I joke with my friends each year that if I only bet the local teams, I would be a winner! Yet, I need to feel the excitement of having a wager going, so I bet on teams with less knowledge to back my cash, and lose. You all do the exact same thing, with a few exceptions out there.

This leads me to yet another point, which I have tried, to no avail, to get into action here at Jack's:

Why can't we get together in here when it comes to information?

Some of you guys must be in the same boat! You know certain teams better than others, and seem to win on them at a higher rate than your other wagers? Why not post up on that? That is what this forum was intended for, I believe.

Maybe this year we can find a few of us willing to be the "expert" on certain teams. That would be nice.

Who knows.........we might even go 10-0


[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 07-13-2001).]

 

[redsfann]

YYZ makes an excellent point here. For me, the "local" team is the Iowa Hawkeyes of the Big-10. In addition, I also focus on the Big-10, and to a lesser extent, the Mid-American and Big-12 conferences as well.
Why the Big-10? Well, I have season tickets in Iowa City for the Hawkeyes, so I get to see several Big-10 teams in person, and in prior years, have traveled to away games in Minneapolis, Chicago, Madison and have even made the trek to Columbus in the past to see the Hawks.
I don't claim to be any better at handicapping the Big-10 than anyone else, but I feel since thats where my attention is focused-- I should be able to provide some information that can be helpful in handicapping the league.
September 1st is only 7 weeks away! Go Hawks!

 

[Stag]

YYZ...great point about local knowlegdge. We SHOULD help each other out...
I'll take Army football...I clean up betting on (or against) them every year. But I'm VERY average on all other games.
Gamblers tend to forget that you can make the same amount of money (or lose) on an Army-East Carolina football game than you can on the Superbowl! And the Army-ECU game is far easier to handicap!
Stag

 

[buddy]

yyz and redsfann,

You guys make a good point...Granted, it would be ideal if all of us from different parts of the U.S. would provide inside info/commentary on our Home teams.

For me, it would be the Steelers and Pitt.

Unfortunately, here's the downside (for me, anyway.) If I bet the Steelers, I'm bettin' with my heart and not my head. It's very difficult for me to be objective with a team that I've known, followed and rooted for all my life.

If the Steelers don't win outright, I want 'em to cover each and every game.

I know that's not a good mindset to mix with sportswagering, but I just wanted to put ONE of my weaknesses in the open.

It's a lot easier for me to bet with the Oakland Raiders one week and bet against them the next. The same can't be said for my Steelers.

It's even easier in college football. I love betting with and against teams like Arkansas State because I've never seen them play.

But a few minutes on the database can give me all the info I need to make an informed decision whether to go with, against or lay off.

 

[JSMOOTH]

I've always wanted to do this but never have.

I think that if you take one team, like Florida State or Virginia Tech, and take them every game of the season, no matter the opponent or the line, that you would make some decent flow.

but as stated earlier, we all have 'egos to stroke" and lay wood on too many games that we don't know enough about.

I'm guilty also.

 

[marine]

well... i have some nice info that i am sure all the late nite/catch up bettors will love. I have the hawaii football team at my fingertips. yup.. thats right... those midnight games... i will have the info on them for yas. cuz once in awhile i just know that somebody "wants to gamble" and play that midnite game for the big catchup or push over the hill for a great day.

 

[phoenix566]

awesome attitude guys. this is what is so great about MJ's and why it will be hard to not profit from being here...Jack put up a new forum - NFL Weekly Match-ups, don't know if you've seen it yet. This forum is dedicated to specific threads for each individual game. This will be a great place to have the 'local' opinions shared.

Buddy, I know it is tough to remove the 'heart' from betting your local team. My suggestion if you can not is to not bet on them (unless they are having a year like Rams 2 ago). I love the Yankees & Jets. I love for myself to win at capping even more though. Objectivity is KEY.

 

[djv]

I know one thing for sure. My heart can get in the way with the Badgers and Packers.
But it's about winning. I have to think am I on right side of the game period. YYZ I do remember last year when you spoke about what you may do with the Packer game. If I agreed I think there was a streak of 5 in arow. I know some here may say big deal. Well I will take 5 in a row off one team anytime. So yes what is being said here is good stuff. I think it was Fletch last year kept hitting those late Mountain Conference games. He had good info on them. Some one younger then me and its to late do the math. You have 12 guys good at a team. They get in college 7 out of 11 games right ats. then you have say 10 guys dead on a pro team each. They get 10 out of 16 right. Or just 9 out 16. I think that would make everyone happy. Can it be done yes. But hard work is only way. Nothen easy about any of this.

 

[bigghigg]

I dont remember the year but this did happen with Florida state football one year. It was when Charlie Ward was QB. They beat the spred every game and if you rolled the winnings every week you had a real nice total at the end.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

At times its hard to keep from being impartial on home state teams but there are several here that that do most exellent job and I have found that when they have play opposing their home team that these selections hit at some very high #'s in particular.Might keep an eye on Loop especially.
P.S. If Vol ever has play against Tn I would rate that as a very rare double play

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 07-14-2001).]

 

[djv]

This topic needs some more kicking around. Hate to see it go down the vine and be for gotten.

 

[spanky2]

Some Great thoughts,My team is Toronto in nhl and Cowboys in football. Only problem we all face is the 'intangables' within a game,things we simply cannot see or handicap.As we ALL know this will give us the 'bad beat' But I love the idea and let's see if we can SHARE our knowledge and do some LARGE damage..Great ideas guys,let's keep 'er goin' .Spanky...

 

[Its Gravy]

excellent thread guys....during summer school in PreCalculus this year, i got bored and was scribbling down gambling notes and stuff, and too came to the thought of winning 10 in a row, starting with 50.00, but if i had gotten to 7 or 8 i would quit. But the thought has crossed my mind, and when Football season starts, I will do just that. I will open an account with 25 or 50.00 and be very patient, It may take all season, but ill watch the board very carefully and make 1 play per week..and by seasons end who knows, 25.00 could be 200,000

 

[buddy]

It's Gravy,

It doesn't even have to be one play per week.

I'm sure that I'll wager every week, but as far as "exceptional value play", I'm gonna' try and use scheduling info as a resource.

Example: Who's traveling cross country, when and who are they playing? LY, byu was, at best, a below average football team. They played their first 3 games on the road and went 1-2 ATS. (They beat Virginia 35-28, but in this game, byu was down 28-0)

They had their next 2 games at home.

First game, they got hammered by Miss St. The next game, on a Thur. night, they were a 9 pt. fav against unlv and lost outright, 10-7.

Nine days later, they had to travel cross country to Syracuse as a 7- pt. dog.

It wasn't pretty.

SYRACUSE, in a rout, 42-14.

Now I'm curious...I wonder how teams fared that had to travel more than 2000 miles.

You would have to consider their past perfomance, say the last 2-3 games, as a factor...but I think it would be worth the research.